Cautious optimism

[Bucky]

Covid19 mortality counts have gone down the last three weeks in a row. Not by much, but this is the week's start date, number of deaths, and weekly change since mid-March

Mar 15 - 317
Mar 22 - 2,380 +651%
Mar 29 - 7,630 +221%
Apr 05 - 13,678 + 79%
Apr 12 - 15,269 + 12%
Apr 19 - 14,925 -2%
Apr 26 - 13,188 -12%
May 03 - 12,593 -5%
May 10 - 3,388 {pending}

[unblock]

1. Distribution matters. So much of the gain is new york alone

And other early hot spots that have gotten it somewhat under control. New York went from about 1000 daily deaths to around 200, so that's about 5600 a week reduction from one state alone.

Meanwhile the states that haven't yet been hit so hard are reopening even if they're already trending in the wrong direction.

I think we might have seen the worst of it, but it's going to drag out for a long time as areas that shouldn't reopen do and reignite the spread.

Hopefully, they shut down again when they see the folly of their ways, but these are republicans we're talking about....

[Bucky]

9. Right, the pandemic is geographically shifting to smaller communities

That's a feature of the "flattened curve" but with a country this size, the virus has a lot of little cubby holes to wiggle into

[Ms. Toad]

2. I'm guessing there will be an uptick in cases

in about a week, and in deaths a week or two later as states prematurely open.

I don't have a formula to predict this - but re-opening with thousands of times more cases than when we started closing things (especially re-opening without universam mask requirements and not re-opening one step at a time - with a 2-week delay) is a recipe for disaster, because we start doubling not with a handful of cases but with tens and hundreds of thousands of cases. Ohio has 25,000+ cases, for example and plans to have 90% of its businesses open by Friday.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

3. And we still don't have adequate test & trace

It is just plain evil for that thing to conceal numbers in an effort to elevate himself.

[uponit7771]

4. +1

[OhioChick]

8. This

Cases and deaths will skyrocket within the next few weeks with States re-opening.

[uponit7771]

5. Hmmmm, a 7 - 8,000 death drop off seems unlikely ... we'll see.

[Bucky]

12. The final week is this week, so those are only numbers for Sunday thru midday Tuesday

However the deaths per day of the week are down about 25% from the same days the prior week. And there's a definite pattern in which days of the week deaths are reported on

[hangaleft]

6. I'm not a scientist of any kind of stripe

But, as a layperson, I don’t see any vast improvement in the situation or a return to anything remotely resembling normalcy occurring until a viable vaccine that immunizes us against this virus is developed.

[Bucky]

10. True. And then Lord help us when the anti-vaxxers start up their bullshit

[hangaleft]

13. Exactly what I was thinking

I was gonna include that point in my post but decided to keep my point narrow. But you’re absolutely right.

[Bengus81]

14. That's what I've said as Kansas slowly re-opens, what the HELL has changed?

Not a damn thing that I can see. The new case numbers have ticked up in the last couple of weeks even with awareness. So on June 15th if certain numbers are met the State is wide open like it's Feb all over again.

[hangaleft]

15. Yep. The number of deaths will soar if we "open" for business (or entertainment) without a vaccine.

[JI7]

7. What are the numbers if you remove New York

[Bucky]

11. This minus that

THIS: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
United States
Coronavirus Cases: 1,408,823
Deaths: 83,455
Recovered: 296,746

THAT: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/
New York
Coronavirus Cases: 348,655
Deaths: 27,175
Recovered: 58,730