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Wed May 13, 2020, 10:22 PM

So which is it ? Biden ahead in battlegrounds or Trump ?


From the newsweek:


Analysts are most closely eyeing polling data out of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida, all of which Trump won in 2016 after Obama won them twice. Recent polling suggests that Biden, who served as Obama's vice president, currently has the advantage. In several key states, the Democratic candidate leads Trump, while national polls also show Biden as the favored presidential contender.


https://www.newsweek.com/heres-where-donald-trump-joe-biden-stand-key-2020-swing-states-like-michigan-florida-wisconsin-1503704

Those polls were taken last week.


Meanwhile on msnbc, kornacky produces another poll where Biden is behind in every battleground state.

Sounds unlikely to me that Biden would suddenly be behind in every battleground state, not sure what is going on.



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Reply So which is it ? Biden ahead in battlegrounds or Trump ? (Original post)
drray23 May 13 OP
grantcart May 13 #1
Greybnk48 May 14 #11
grantcart May 14 #12
tirebiter May 13 #2
Loki Liesmith May 13 #3
Poiuyt May 14 #8
Aristus May 13 #4
VMA131Marine May 14 #7
Sugarcoated May 14 #9
DeminPennswoods May 14 #14
abqtommy May 13 #5
elleng May 13 #6
BGBD May 14 #10
DeminPennswoods May 14 #15
BGBD May 14 #18
MFM008 May 14 #13
muriel_volestrangler May 14 #16
sarisataka May 14 #20
DFW May 14 #17
brooklynite May 14 #19
Happy Hoosier May 14 #21
Demsrule86 May 14 #22

Response to drray23 (Original post)

Wed May 13, 2020, 10:29 PM

1. We are way ahead in Michigan and AZ ahead in Wisconsin and Fl


Tied in GA and PA

But there are other "battle ground" states like CO where we are up 20 points

We are close in Iowa and TX

Georgia is likely to be the biggest battleground as it also has 2 Senate seats up and they almost always go both to the same party.

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Response to grantcart (Reply #1)

Thu May 14, 2020, 02:03 AM

11. Biden's going to crush it in Wisconsin.

I'm not an expert by any stretch, i'm just going by 2016 and the April election here. We knocked off and incumbent Supreme Court Justice and two incumbent Judges in Milwaukee County! Unreal!

Oh, and people are REALLY pissed. Especially after what the WI Kangaroo Supreme Court and the Republican Legislature pulled today. Really, really pissed.

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Response to Greybnk48 (Reply #11)

Thu May 14, 2020, 02:22 AM

12. I sgree


Biden has pulled ahead in AZ as well.

I think the real tell is Trump is going to places where There numbers show he is falling behind but still close like PA and AZ.

Places like WI and MI are too far gone for Trump to visit.

If I am right then his next visits will be GA, FL and TX.

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Wed May 13, 2020, 10:42 PM

2. Another reason I've been cheering on Stacey Abrams for VP

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Wed May 13, 2020, 10:44 PM

3. Aggregated battlefield polls are useless. Ignore them.

Last edited Thu May 14, 2020, 12:59 AM - Edit history (1)


?s=21

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Response to Loki Liesmith (Reply #3)

Thu May 14, 2020, 12:49 AM

8. This +

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Wed May 13, 2020, 10:48 PM

4. Doesn't Biden have an advantage in Pennsylvania?

Hometown boy and all?

Trump lost his home state in 2016, but everyone hates him there.

Can the kid from Scranton turn Pennsylvania blue?

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Response to Aristus (Reply #4)

Thu May 14, 2020, 12:41 AM

7. Biden is not losing PA.

No way, no how!

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Response to Aristus (Reply #4)

Thu May 14, 2020, 01:42 AM

9. Absolutely

PA is a lock for Joe👊👊👊

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Response to Aristus (Reply #4)

Thu May 14, 2020, 04:47 AM

14. Biden moved from Scranton long ago

He's not really a "hometown boy". In any event, all the state polling shows Trump is underwater in PA. Dems are loathe to admit it, but lots of voters simply did not like Clinton and either didn't vote for her or voted 3rd party. Biden doesn't have that same problem.

I also think the new, relaxed absentee ballot rules will end up helping Biden in Philadelphia where even a great turnout usually lags the rest of the state.

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Wed May 13, 2020, 10:51 PM

5. I don't expect to get accurate coronavirus numbers and I don't expect to get accurate poll

numbers either. That's due to the ratfucking reTHGUGS and their tame MSM.

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Wed May 13, 2020, 10:53 PM

6. It's MAY, it doesn't MATTER.

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Thu May 14, 2020, 01:51 AM

10. Was he using the CNN poll?

Because it is hot garbage. You can't create a national poll and then try to extract "battleground" voters out of it. It called something like 15 states battlegrounds and had a sample of maybe 400 from all of them combined. So, that's 30sih people from each state. That's nowhere near enough to have a suitable sample size from any of them.

You either need to do a national poll or a state poll, you can't try to do them both on the cheap like that. You need a sample of atleast 400 from the single state to have any confidence in it, and the quality state polls we are seeing show Biden ahead. We saw a REPUBLICAN poll today some out showing Biden ahead in Georgia, that's not going to be the result if he's doing poorly in other competitive races.

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Response to BGBD (Reply #10)

Thu May 14, 2020, 04:49 AM

15. The MOE would be really large for that subset, too

Much bigger than for the top line result.

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Response to DeminPennswoods (Reply #15)

Thu May 14, 2020, 10:12 AM

18. that's

my point.

If anyone watched the Upshot polls last cycle, you could see one just starting with 50 responses and a candidate could be up 10 or 15 points, but by the time the poll was complete that same candidate was down 5 or more.

Polls was a function if random sampling and you need a large enough n for the central limit theorem to take effect. If I talk to 10 people at random, there's a good chance in a dead even race that I happen to talk to a couple more of one supporter than the other, and my results are 70/30. I could conclude that one candidate is way ahead, or I could talk to another 490.

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Thu May 14, 2020, 04:22 AM

13. Once again

Media working hard to make it a horse race.

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Response to MFM008 (Reply #13)

Thu May 14, 2020, 04:58 AM

16. It'd be really negligent to pretend that it's not a horse race

You really shouldn't assume that Biden will win it without any trouble. Think that now, and people will get complacent and careless.

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Response to MFM008 (Reply #13)

Thu May 14, 2020, 11:21 AM

20. Yup, same thing they did in 2016,

When everyone knew it would be a landslide...

Maybe we should learn from past mistakes.

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Thu May 14, 2020, 06:03 AM

17. If a real unbiased national poll were to say Biden 85%, Trump 10%, 5% undecided

The Media would say, it is neck-and neck, a real horse race, and unpredictable.

Except for Fox Noise, which would have Trump us by 2 points nationally, and by 15 points in swing states.

You're not going to sell a lot of TV ad time by repeating "it's all over, folks" for the next six months.

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Thu May 14, 2020, 10:13 AM

19. Stop fixating on individual polls...

Look at polling over time.

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Thu May 14, 2020, 11:22 AM

21. NBC got a bad sample, IMO.

Even Kornacki admitted that until more polls come in, it's an outlier.

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Thu May 14, 2020, 11:24 AM

22. Biden is ahead.

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