reopening is clearly a mistake, but i don't think it will lead to the obvious disaster some think.

[unblock]

here's the "good new/bad news": recent studies suggest that the *average* r0 infection rate of 3-ish is actually made up of a lot of people who don't spread the disease to very many people (mainly just members of their own household, possibly) and a small number of people who spread the disease to quite a lot of people at "super-spreader events" like church gathering (especially with a choir singing), parties, sports events, etc.

it's these big gathering that foster massive outbreaks and hot spots, like that big spanish-italian soccer game that put both countries in the top 5 hardest hit.

i'm guessing there will be a lot of rural areas and small towns that remain largely unaffected, having only a few scattered cases, maybe that goes up a little but they don't suddenly turn into new york city.

yes, nursing homes will continue to be hard hit, and that will get worse. and the fool churches who refuse to have their sermons and ceremonies via zoom will spread it big time. i'm not saying there won't be a few new hot spots, there certainly will be.

i'm saying it's not going to suddenly skyrocket. it's just going to bump up and down as the areas that know what they're doing bring their rates down and areas that don't know what they're doing bring their rates up.


on the one hand, this assessment/guess is cautiously optimistic in terms of the damage covid-19 causes over the next several months. on the other hand, it's also politically pessimistic in the sense that the lack of an obvious spike in new cases or new deaths will be taken by the right-wing as confirmation of their idiotic views.

which, in turn, means a continuation of idiotic policies, and more people getting sick and dying than would otherwise be the case, until solid treatment emerges (i'm giving up on a vaccine any time soon).


in short, look for the numbers to get slowly better in cities and blue states, and slowly worse in rural areas and red states. and look for republicans to ignore this distinction and only talk about relatively flat totals.

[Wounded Bear]

1. I don't share your optimism...

[Squinch]

2. One soccer game blew it out of control in two countries. One Dairy Queen could do it to a county.

[unblock]

12. Dq isn't anything like a stadium soccer event

Brief exposure is lower risk than lengthy exposure
Outdoors/well ventilated is lower risk than indoors/poorly ventilated
Smaller crowd is lower risk than larger crowd

Dq is not zero risk, and personally, I think it's a completely unnecessary risk. So, even if it's low risk, I don't see the point of taking that risk. But it is not likely to create anything like the spread of a soccer match with tens of thousands of people packed tightly in a stadium yelling for hours.

[ProfessorGAC]

3. Schools Are My Biggest Concern

Around here.
The mass transit is limited to the 300,000 20 miles north, and the 75,000 20 miles south.
So, no big gatherings, no giant restaurants or bars,...
But, school busses, gym classes, classrooms, science labs, all generate close contact.
Absent a treatment that minimizes mortality among infected folks, I'm concerned that's a probable trigger.

[unblock]

13. Hopefully the reopenings are mostly thoightful

Like no gym class, or only outdoors at least.

Fewer people per bus maybe. Half days if need be.

I can't imagine going on the subway, yikes!

[BigmanPigman]

16. Schools are super scary environments.

I taught K-6 and there is a difference between ages and germs I found out first hand. I was rarely sick with the 6th graders but when I went to 1st I was sick 90% of the school year (same school too). The little ones are carriers and germ incubators and they take it home, spread it, then the siblings spread it, etc. Unless kids are spread out over the space of a football field I would not go back into a classroom. Teachers will be getting sick and a lot have shitty pay and health insur and are older (at risk).

[BannonsLiver]

21. Sounds like your immune system is in bad shape

Being sick 90 percent of a school year is pretty bad and doesn’t seem at all normal.

[BigmanPigman]

44. I caught several serious illnesses

in that environment (one year my whole 8 room bldg was demolished due to black mold in the ceiling). I had mono for 6 months, pneumonia resulting in internal loss of 1/3 of my red blood cells, etc. My immune system is history thanks to that sick environment. I am not alone either (ask the teachers' union's). I am "the tip of the iceberg" and that is why I had to leave before I could officially retire and get my retirement package. My doctors made me leave since my "job was killing me".

[yellowdogintexas]

51. Day care centers and lower elementary grades are basically petri dishes

younger kids pick up any old virus because their immune systems are not fully developed. The older we get, the more exposured we have, the stronger our resistance and the fewer of these minor virus infections we get. An adult who has not acquired immunity to certain strains of colds, etc will catch everything.

When our daughter was in early school years she seemed to have a cold every other month. As she got older, she brought home fewer and fewer of them. I remember my early school years in the same way; I must have missed half of first grade due to various viral illnesses, and by the time I was in fourth grade I was seldom sick at all.

I managed to escape her infections; her father's immune system is not as strong as mine and he got everything.

[BigmanPigman]

60. I don't know how they will be able to teach this age group

without a ton of outdoor space and twice as many teachers. Don't forget that teachers do not want to get sick either, no matter how "dedicated" they are.

[Igel]

43. It's going to be rough.

Lots of laws to navigate, revise, edit on the fly.

Or take finances. Half-full buses means twice as many. Lots of districts have trouble finding enough bus drivers.

At-risk kids tend to do worse with online learning. Half-days means half-learning for them.

Or we could have am and pm shifts--but then teachers' pay might need adjusting. Bus schedules might be weird. Students' work schedules (high school) might not be flexible.

Whatever happens, I expect it to be a slow-moving disaster and painful. But it'll have to be something, and when all the solutions suck it's unfair to point to the district and say they settled on a sucky solution.

[unblock]

37. yes. we can only hope that "reopening" is done somewhat sensibly

and things with bigger risks open more slowly and carefully. blindly reopening and crowding into restaurants and bars and churches isn't a good idea.

hopefully most businesses reopen with at least some distancing rules, better cleaning, etc.

we're cooking/eating at home for the foreseeable future, but i can see restaurants reopening with patio-only service, tables spread out further apart than usual, masks and gloves for all staff. not ideal but not super high risk.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

4. We do like our drama, no mistake about that. You may be right about what's coming.

Most times things aren't nearly as catastrophically horrible as we think they will be. The ups and downs of this disease will probably continue as you think.

I too believe that a vaccine is far off, if it ever happens. I hope it does.

Good analysis!

[unblock]

6. thing is, i'm not sure which is worse.

a quick and obvious spike in rates is obviously bad news for those affected, but it might (*might*) get this country to do the right thing and start handling this crisis at least somewhat better, which might be better overall.

just bumping along might just lead to a lengthy period of many needless deaths....

[CaliforniaPeggy]

9. I hear ya, and I agree. Which is worse? No idea.

I expect Joe Biden to implement much more stringent measures and consistent measures as well. That will help, plus he'll make sure the PPE is available everywhere.

And testing will happen too. Then maybe we can start getting a handle on this mess!

[waseemazhar10]

5. reopening is clearly a mistake, but i don't think it will lead to the obvious disaster some think.

Indeed it will be a great mistake as we are still in the state of pandemic

[2naSalit]

7. Out here in rural vacationland...

We're bracing for impact in a month after parks start opening and tourism resumes. I'm staying home, mostly. I expect July to be about peak time in this area. So far we're looking good but when the 14 day quarantine upon arrival goes away... two or three weeks later will be the tell.

[Ms. Toad]

8. Wasn't it just yesterday (relatively speaking)

that I was wrong about when I predicted weeks out when COVID 19 would overtake the number of SARS deaths . . . oh, yeah. I was off by 3 days.

Wait, wasn't I wrong about the exponential growth in the US . . . oh, wait. I wasn't wong then either.

How about when the curve started bending . . . no, not that either.

I don't have a good curve yet for post-opening up - since there is no data yet. BUT - from what I'm seeing in terms of behavior (large gatherings, no masks, no social distancing) - and - what I know in terms of actual numbers of cases, I think you are overly optimistic.

And, as far as rural areas - go research Grand Island, Nebraska (or Hall County).

And please don't bring politics into it. This is about health - not politics. That's the other side's accusation about the factual/scientific view of COVID 19. Please don't lend credence to it by describing any variance from the prediction as "politically optimistic"

[Alacritous Crier]

19. +1

[uponit7771]

23. +1, there needs to be a CV19 math area or forum. DU Mathmaticians have been +-3% in predictions

... and are giving people more accurate anything than M$M

[DBoon]

27. Yes

There are groups that can spread this in rural areas very extensively. We've already seen packing plants spreading Covid-19.

Sporting events, religious gatherings, there are many events that could cause this to spread in rural areas.

[Blue_true]

10. An eating place near me, sit down, opened on a Friday two Fridays ago.

It was always open on a Sunday, in fact it did breakfast, lunch and dinner 7 days a week. I passed by earlier today and looked over at it, closed tight as a drum, zero cars in the parking lot. After DeSantis decided to reopen under really poor metrics, I passed by that place and saw a mom and what looked like a teenaged or college aged son talking to to women, NONE were wearing a mask and all were closely grouped. I remember thinking "just a matter of time".

[NickB79]

11. Rural areas are the fastest-growing areas of infection already

I don't see how your prediction could hold true, given what we're already seeing.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/study-covid-19-now-spreading-fastest-in-small-rural-counties/ar-BB148Dp6

[yellowdogintexas]

57. check out Muhlenberg county in KY or Potter county in Texas

Muhlenberg County has a prison - Green River Correctional Facility. COVID 19 got into that place and now Central City KY is a hot spot.

Meanwhile, Potter County TX and the adjacent counties are the biggest hot spot in Texas because .....meat processing.

Other areas are reporting increased new case numbers since May 1

[brush]

14. Church services are big in red states, people are flocking to bars in Wisconsin...

and other re-opening states—shoulder-to-shoulder with no masks. Texas just had it's biggest single-day infection total. There probably will be an upsurge in infection. And wait until schools open. You think kids are disciplined enough to social distance and wear masks. Teachers aren't always there to ride herd on them.

Let's see where we are in a month. The repugs won't be able to surpress the infection and death counts altogether.

[Mariana]

18. You think kids are disciplined enough to social distance and wear masks.

Especially when a bunch of them have their parents saying the whole thing is a hoax by the Democrats to make Trump look bad.

[brush]

20. There you go.

[misanthrope]

29. Conservative leaders in red states will

do what they can to suppress testing. No tests, means no confirmed cases which allows for greater spin. What's at stake for politicos isn't health and physical welfare but political victory. That's all that counts.

[brush]

39. Of course they will try, but many will die. They can't hush...

all those up. And more and more families will have or know of deaths. trump is already down in polling. I don't like to dwell in pessimism.

[yellowdogintexas]

52. it is getting pretty scary down here

My county's new case count doubled last week.

[stillcool]

15. I've been politically pessimistic for years....

has nothing to do with covid-19 It is all about the GOP, and what is done day-in, and day-out to destroy anything that does not benefit the corporate world. Policies. They don't have policies. They lie, and steal. There is no way out of this pandemic, or anything else. We have to go through it.

[uponit7771]

17. ***STILL HORRIBLE !!!*** Relative to federated TTQ our current level is a crime against humanity so

... so if we were just to stay at the current level that's still hundreds of thousands of dead people needlessly killed and a dead economy by time Red Don ends his genocide.

No, this is bad choice and looking at the fact we're at same NPI as Sweden Trumps "opening" isn't going to help the economy.

[BannonsLiver]

22. You're sure to be viciously attacked by resident faux experts but this seems like a reasonable point

[uponit7771]

26. It's the stable retort for strawman arguments. This doesn't have to "skyrocket" for it to be more ..

... horrible than it should be.

[unblock]

38. agreed, that's why i led with reopening is a mistake

[uponit7771]

41. The disaster is still more deaths than it should be not skyrocketing infections.

[unblock]

45. we're already in the disaster, caused by gross negligence in the federal response.

if we had the same death rate as the rest of the world, our death total so far would be 9,571.

instead, we're at 90,978.

that 81,407 death attributable to something going on in america that isn't going on, on average, in the rest of the world.

the only obvious thing is a federal response that's worse than nothing. they're actively encouraging behavior that increases transmission, impairs testing and therefore thoughtful state/local actions, and even interfering with the supply of hospital equipment.

we're already deep into disaster, even if things improve markedly somehow in the next few months.

[USALiberal]

53. Where are your stats? Nt

[Yonnie3]

24. I tend to agree

that we won't see any tremendous overall spike in new infections. We will see a lot of smaller spikes spread out in time so that they are not so apparent when one looks at the national data or even state data. At a local/regional level some spikes might be very bad.

We have flattened the curve, but there is no sharp decline as seen in South Korea's daily new case graph because we are opening too soon and testing/contact tracing is not yet adequate. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

The US new cases graph is at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ toward the bottom. There is certainly a decline in new cases, but it is not a rapid decline as seen in other countries.

The new deaths and new cases will continue reducing slightly for a long time, but because it will be a long time the totals will be large.

[uponit7771]

28. +1, a flat curve is still bad for death and the economy vs a federated Test/Trace/Quarantine process

... it's a strawman to proffer "skyrocketing" deaths when the current deaths rate is horrible

[Yonnie3]

32. Poorly selected metrics are crap

It is not a success if we don't have skyrocketing deaths and predictions of such are a distraction from what is happening which is already very bad.

A metric of "deaths (or cases) are not rising" is not one I support for opening. A slight decline is a death sentence for many and a drag on the economy.

Something like "deaths/cases are reduced by half per week (or ??)," is a metric I could support if it was measured over a significant time period.

[uponit7771]

33. +1, same ... if in a month we're at half infection rate I'll support but there's plenty of evidence

... from other countries and our own showing that not to be the case.

There wont be a second wave, the first one never left

[Ms. Toad]

34. How on do you reach the conclusion that new cases will decline -

The current decline in new cases reflects that the virus has no one to infect because of the social distancing/stay at home requirements.

It is magical thinking to believe that new cases will continue to decline when we give the virus more people to infect (by increasing our contacts with each other).

[Yonnie3]

36. I stand corrected

My point was that even if there is a slight decline now it is still bad. I was opining on the present situation. I think we will see humps rather than spikes.

I should have read that one more time before posting and worded it better. My last sentence would have been better as: If the new deaths and new cases continue reducing slightly for a long time the totals will be large.

[Marrah_Goodman]

25. Megachurches are going to be a huge problem

[yellowdogintexas]

54. they sure are! In addition to the large congregations,

those folks like to be all up in each other's personal space, singing and swaying and hugging.

If those places open back up at full steam, we are in a world of hurt

[kentuck]

30. If most people adhere to the distancing and the masks...

I think they can re-open without too much fear of a re-spark of the virus. However, I would not get out in it at the moment. unless I had no other choice. Some people do have to work to eat, we must not forget.

[hunter]

31. Heart disease and cancer step aside.

I think we are returning to a time when viruses and bacteria are the leading cause of death.

This virus is a dress rehearsal. Putting the "Again" in MAGA I suppose...

Mother Nature isn't impressed by our so-called intelligence. This planet has seen many innovative species come and go.

Human overpopulation and global warming will make a lot of bad shit inevitable.

I'll be very surprised if this virus doesn't claim a million U.S. American lives in the next year or two.

I think the Republican plan is to ignore and obscure the death count.

[unblock]

40. that's the really scary scenario, if covid-19 is just the "first" of many nasty pandemics

[GaYellowDawg]

35. You haven't seen things in Tennessee.

The last couple of times I went to the grocery store, people weren't even bothering with masks or gloves, and looked at me like I was mildly crazy for doing so. They think it's all over.

The churches will meet. It will start its spread at some of those, and burn straight through grocery stores and Wal-Mart. People will get together and not bother with social distancing. You're going to see all kinds of rural hot spots bloom. We'll hit 200,000 by Labor Day.

[misanthrope]

42. Same in Alabama

I have a feeling June is going to get very ugly down here. And while the numbers escalate, the officials here will go into this mode



You have to live here to understand the depth of delusion and commitment to willful ignorance.

[JCMach1]

47. Churches are a huge vector

[yellowdogintexas]

56. My sister lives in KY just north of Clarksville, and Gov Beshear has told

the folks along the state line to stay out of Tennessee unless absolutely necessary. Basically, medical needs, food needs and court needs.

He began with social distancing and closing of public gatherings earlier than most governors. For a red state, KY has done extremely well.

Tennessee,not so much. Even if you factor in Tennessee's higher population the percentages in KY are much better.

[JCMach1]

46. Church was a key factor in revving up infections

In several countries...

Opening up is going to pump up this vector.

People who continue taking precautions and just the nature of most viruses will tap down things a.bit this Summer. Fall/Winter game on.

[uponit7771]

48. +1, still that way I'm SK

[JCMach1]

49. South Korea, France, cases in US

I mention South Korea and France because of the scientific studies don't.

[Brainfodder]

50. Not my problem, my problem is no health insurance!

I can't risk needing a H!
Sadly I don't see any way of getting it either, any time soon.

All our emergency money is in our home equity, which probably just vanished....

[Iggo]

55. I hope it doesn't, but it will for some.

It’s going to kill people who wouldn’t have died, just to get that money flowing.

That’s obvious.

[unblock]

58. see my reply #45, nearly 90% of the death toll already was an avoidable tragedy

if we had the same death rate as the rest of the world, our death total so far would be 9,571.

instead, we're at 90,978.

[Johnny2X2X]

59. Reopening is the Trump re-election strategy

He knows it will lead to more deaths, he doesn't care. What he cares about is that he thinks he'll be able to blame the economy on the governors, and that he'll be able to exploit Coronavirus fears in November to prevent people from going out to vote. It's going to be one thing to wait in line for 10 minutes and vote if you live in a rural community, it's going to be another thing if you have to wait in line for 8 hours to vote like in many cities.