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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums***PLEASE*** Look at the first 10 mins of TRMS. She shows EMPIRICALLY why first wave never left
***PLEASE*** Look at the first 10 mins of TRMS. She shows EMPIRICALLY why first wave never left and going the direction we're going is not good.
She basically took at the Tri State Area from the national numbers and the national numbers are sky rocketing.
The Tri State Area numbers are skewing the "Flat Curve" nationally on the graph because Tri State Area numbers are so large and that metro area (imho) was 1.5 - 3 months ahead of the rest of the US in the effect of CV19 on communities.
If the 3rd largest country in the worlds numbers are that tilted upwards then on the county level the Ro's are not below 1 and this site confirms such notion - https://covidactnow.org/
It's scary, it reminds me of the lab scene in the movie Aliens where they figured out the Aliens weren't coming through the front door they were already crawling through the ceiling.
Squinch
(50,911 posts)out to all those who are just entering it, and who don't have ANY leadership that will help with this.
Hell, in Georgia and Florida they're cooking the numbers OPENLY! Hiding the severity from their OWN citizens.
uponit7771
(90,301 posts)... up there" lol.
The MAGA Clucker areas are screwed
Squinch
(50,911 posts)Delphinus
(11,825 posts)sure which segment of the show ... can you link it please? Thanks.
uponit7771
(90,301 posts)Pobeka
(4,999 posts)NY has the most confirmed cases, at 1.8% of the population. Let's say the testing was so bad, there are actually 10x more cases than the current count. So NY would have about 18% of the population with herd immunity for a brief period of time (under a year, as experts are guessing).
So, given a pretty radical assumption about the number of actual cases, if even NY was to completely open up, the virus would go exponential and make the previous wave look like nothing.
Given the nature of people to equate "okay to leave your house" with "do everything as you did before", this subsided wave will absolutely explode like a tsunami in states that have had poor public messaging.
And forget about summer heat helping, just take a look at the exponential curve shape in Mexico now.
I have relatives living in some very dangerous states right now. Dangerous not because of the virus, but because of bad governing.
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)...showed that, while cases are slightly increasing or decreasing in most states outside the Tri-State area, there is no way anyone can say they're "sky rocketing" (sic) anywhere. What's of more concern is that, even in states where we've had social-distancing orders and government leaders doing the right thing (unlike the federal government), the same remains true, with either a slight decrease or a continuing slight increase in cases. But, aside from CT-NY-NJ, we're not seeing a substantial drop in cases, even in deep blue states where isolation has been practiced for two months or more and where we'd thus be expecting to see a drop.
uponit7771
(90,301 posts)Last edited Tue May 19, 2020, 07:49 AM - Edit history (1)
Pobeka
(4,999 posts)If actual new cases are dropping, but testing intensity is increasing, it can look like cases are increasing in the resulting data. (In general, testing intensity is increasing in all states.)
Or, if actual cases are constants, but the testing accuracy is changing, it can look like an increase or decrease in cases caused by change in test accuracy.
I used to think death counts were the most reliable statistic, but with FL and probably others now on record of not counting all deaths, it remains impossible to ascertain what's really going on.
Unfortunately, we are at the mercy of each individual state's governing body, and if they choose to be concerned about political appearances rather than protecting public health, we'll have unnecessarily worse outcomes in this pandemic.