Arizona Senate GE: Kelly (D) 51% (+13) McSally 38%

[sunonmars]

Link to tweet

Wow, are they a good pollster or not, I don't know them.

But if this is right, McSally is going to get flattened.



From the Republican uh-oh department: Arizona Sen. Martha McSally is sliding in the polls, dropping four percentage points in a month.

McSally now trails Democrat Mark Kelly by 13 points, according to the latest tracking poll by OH Predictive Insights.

While the April poll of 600 likely voters favored Kelly 51% to McSally’s 42%, in May it’s now 51%-38%.

The poll shows independents breaking more than 2-1 for Kelly.

“McSally is doing terribly,” pollster Mike Noble told me on Monday. “There’s no way to find a bright spot on that one.”

And that’s not even the bad news for McSally.

The bad news comes from Maricopa County, where Republicans rule.

At least, they did rule, until Democrat Kyrsten Sinema defeated McSally there in 2018 -- stealing 88 mostly-suburban precincts that normally would go to the Republican nominee.

In May 2020, Kelly has climbed to 54% in Maricopa County while McSally has dropped to 36%.

Just think about that for a moment. Kelly has gone from a five-point advantage in Maricopa County to an 18-point cruise.

[tman]

1. Great. Bodes well for Biden also.

[DrToast]

4. Biden 50 / Trump 43 (+7)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_biden-6807.html

[sunonmars]

5. Excellent

[Johnny2X2X]

2. 538 grades them B/C

Pew research is also rated B/C, so a slightly above average poll in reliability.

This is huge!

[sunonmars]

3. If she's getting flattened in Maricopa, she's done.

[Grown2Hate]

6. Not to mention 538 also shows this pollster with a SLIGHT Republican lean, if anything.

+0.9 %, but still with a Republican lean. GREAT news in this poll.

[StarryNite]

7. We can do this Arizona!