It's density. And what people do.

[nitpicker]

((I'm crossposting with modifications, from my earlier comment on another thread, to reflect my thinking.))

CV mostly started off in the US in the areas around big-city airports with lots of international arrivals from Asia and Europe, and/or airports with direct connections to the former airports. ((Yes, outbreaks also did occur in ski country with jet-setters traveling in because climate change melted snow in their usual haunts, or just because they wanted to ski in the US.))

But then it started to get into the nursing homes and prisons. The staff there generally can't afford to shop at high-end grocery stores. If the CNAs and prison guards all shop at the local Walmart... The intake was also an issue, either unscreened, or at nursing homes taking in those deemed recovering from CV.

And now CV's appearing in the meat processing industry, ag workers, etc. Those activities (like the major prisons) are typically located in rural counties.

If I see a major jump in a county or state:

1. Did a backlog of tests just get cleared ((as it did in DC per the mayor))?

2. Does the locality have an outbreak at a food production place?

3. And/or a prison?

4. And/or have the authorities tested everyone in nursing homes?

If not, it might take time to find other potential causes, such as infected fast food workers, that beauty shop worker in MO ((just checked, now a second worker from the same shop tested positive)).

BUT if someone is wandering around trying to spread the virus (including unknowingly):

Are other people staying six feet away from "non-household" members? Are faces covered? Do they obsessively wash their hands, and include their bodies after every trip outside the home?

Unless there is a vulnerable person in the home, probably not the overuse of shampoo.

BUT there are reasons why the daily day-over-day increase percentage in cumulative positive cases has fallen from over 25% in a day in some states to under 5% for each state, unless reasons 1,2,3 or the results of a surge in testtaking apply.

The governors (mostly) did say "DO IT", BUT most of the people did do it.

By July 4, we shall see if the Memorial Day reopenings were the worst idea since rotten bread, or not.

[OAITW r.2.0]

1. There is a grand experiment underway.....

Those that believe Trump (et al) and those they don't (et al). Results will be pretty stark, I think.

[Igel]

2. I've gone skeptic.

More skeptical than before.

Florida wasn't worse than NY. TX hasn't been a bloodbath; CA, a model state with an awesome, is worse off than the crappily run Texas with Greg "Freddie" Abbott and his desired Texas coronavirus massacre.

I also wait for the Georgia disaster.

I do see people picking one-day "spikes" as evidence for on-going massive morbidity rates, but it's basically drive-by news: "Today Texas had a record 63 deaths" and yesterday they had less than half that and today they have less than half that. Even then, that kind of headline is willfully erroneous: "63 deaths reported", but that blunts the sensationalism and doesn't feed the narrative properly.

I see people picking outbreaks in specific small towns and acting like they're widespread, with calls for reinstatement of the lockdown. It's like telling everybody in Detroit to head to high ground and evacuate because Midland's underwater, makes every bit as much sense. Unless you're in Midland and all you can see is what's nearby, so you assume (regardless of what you're told) that it must be the same everywhere. The Noachian flood reflux, so to speak.

The reporting is so polarized that good news is spun as bad and bad news is spun as apocalyptic.

[7wo7rees]

3. If you are "skeptic" and yet you believe in numbers that Texas is reporting

Well then you truly are not "skeptic". Here in Texas they are under-reporting every number there is to report and got caught fudging the numbers.
If you believe in anything Abbott and Paxton are reporting, then that in and of itself belies your skepticism.

Sorry, not attacking you. Just calling it as I see it. We left our house in North Dallas this morning and went to 2 "Farmers Markets" and 2 private bakeries (only open on Saturdays for pick up):and one #1BBQ place to pick up because it was only a mile from one of bakeries. At my fave farmers mkt between 8:30 am and 10:15 I witnessed and watched it happen and it only got worse the rest of the day. At first early everyone had masks on, social distancing in practice etc. Rules, strict. But then something started to change, more people were there and in open defiance of rules. No masks, ignoring social distance, flaunting their I honestly do not know what, ignorance? I guess. Hold on and watch. North Texas is going to blow up. Just give it 2 to 4 weeks.
At BBQ place a very short line, but turns out lovely woman in front of me was nurse at hospital nearby.
She told me at 1st she had not paid much attention. Now she's scared. She said the hospital is packed, patients are terribly ill and they are "dropping like flies". The numbers being reported are not true.

So color me skeptical.

Oh and 2nd Farmers Market, no rules, chaos, no masks, probably won't be going back. But this market is just right across the street from the new darling of the right. The salon owner who defied the rules and won. Our very own new Tea Party bitch, Shelly Luther, owner of Salon a la Mode. And a singer in her very own apparently successful little band. And the GoFundMe campaign that she gained one cool 1/2 million from.

Yeah color us skeptical and terribly cynical!

Oh and traffic, heavier than it has been since lockdown began. We are fucked.

[LeftInTX]

5. We aren't under-reporting in Bexar County

All of our numbers appear on the state dashboard.

San Antonio is mostly community spread ATM. At first we had a spike from a nursing home, (about 70 cases) then we had the jail. (the jail wasn't as bad as many other jail)

We still get cases from the jail and now there is another nursing home, but community spread is the most common. We don't have a high rate. It seems to be slowly increasing due to opening, but the increasing trend is not very strong. (averages about 35 cases per day, many times less)

[7wo7rees]

8. And you believe this? It is under reported in the very simple lack of

testing. I asked the nurse today about testing. Before I said anything at all she said there is not enough testing. "They" don't want testing. "They" don't want the real numbers known.
And if you are in Bexar Co. you are allowing yourself to be lied to if you believe the numbers.

[LeftInTX]

9. Our testing rate has gone up and positives have gone down

We certainly aren't in the clear, but it is being managed here in Bexar County.
Bexar County has fought Greg Abbott tooth and nail.

Our Mayor and County Judge are good Democrats.

[LeftInTX]

10. I would show you the testing rates, but I'm falling asleep...LOL

[Ex Lurker]

4. T cell immunity may be the wild card

It may explain why the disease tears through an area then sputters, why some people in the same household never get sick, and why the disease hasn't taken hold in regions that seemingly would be a prime environment for it.

As you note, some states that haven't done much social distancing at all have barely been affected, while others with strict lockdowns have had a rough time of it.

[LeftInTX]

7. I don't know how T cell plays into this

But areas with the most cases have the highest population densities. Social distancing rules are stricter in those areas, yet social distancing in NYC is pretty much the same as every day life in San Antonio. I went to Home Depot the other day, I was reluctant due to the amt of cars in the parking lot. But I went in. I had no contact with anyone except the checkout. I bought mosquito dunks and some parts for a sprayer. Then I went to the outdoor area and bought a handheld spreader. I pretty much encountered no one in the aisles. The crowd was typical for HD. Most shoppers wore masks.

[LeftInTX]

6. Totally, totally agree!!

The best prevention is social distancing, but to look at pictures of an outdoor event and claim that everyone at the beach is gonna get Covid and die is hyperbole.