Democrats more likely to boost House majority than lose it
ANALYSIS — The battlefield for control of the House is shrinking and divided, and that’s bad news for Republicans. Indeed, Democrats at this point in the cycle look more likely to gain seats than to lose their majority.
The latest round of rating changes by Inside Elections saw seven races shift to Solid and off the list of the most competitive contests (viewed as seats where either party has a significant chance of winning). The dropped districts currently held by Democrats are California’s 10th (Josh Harder) and 45th (Katie Porter), and New York’s 19th (Antonio Delgado). The four districts that shifted from Likely Republican to Solid Republican are North Carolina’s 9th (Dan Bishop), Ohio’s 12th (Troy Balderson), and Texas’ 2nd (Daniel Crenshaw) and 31st (John Carter).
With those changes, the House battlefield consists of 31 districts currently represented by Democrats, 28 districts currently held by Republicans, and the open seat being vacated by Michigan Libertarian Justin Amash, who is not seeking reelection. Republicans need to gain 17 seats in November to retake the House.
With that battlefield and President Donald Trump struggling to reach his 2016 marks in key districts, the most likely outcome for the House is close to the status quo. The most likely range is a Republican gain of five seats to a Democratic gain of five seats, or something in between.
The size and composition of the battlefield can foreshadow the election to come....
Vulnerable Democrats in better shape for reelection include Lauren Underwood (Illinois’ 14th, Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic), Andy Kim (New Jersey’s 3rd, Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic), Anthony Brindisi (New York’s 22nd, Toss-up to Tilt Democratic), and Ben McAdams (Utah’s 4th, Toss-up to Tilt Democratic)......
Democratic chances also improved in Nevada’s 3rd District, represented by Democrat Susie Lee, where the race moved from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic, and Texas’ 21st, where GOP Rep. Chip Roy is facing a well-financed fight from Democrat Wendy Davis, and the contest shifted from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. And the race for Montana’s at-large district was added to the battlefield from Solid Republican to Likely Republican with a strong early showing by Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock in the Senate race at the top of the ballot.
https://www.rollcall.com/2020/05/27/ratings-update-democrats-more-likely-to-boost-majority-than-lose-it/
