Morning Consult: Warren as VP helps Biden most with youth and Black voters

[Fiendish Thingy]

Last edited Wed May 27, 2020, 12:55 PM - Edit history (1)

Link to tweet

This is evidence based information; any other points of view are merely opinions and speculation.

EDITED TO ADD: this is apparently a poll of ALL voters, unlike the two previous polls, which were of Dem voters only.

[pwb]

1. I am hoping future President Biden.

Picks her.

[lagomorph777]

10. I would endorse that.

But I'm sure there are a number of very energizing women of color who may not have such immediate name recognition, but would bring new blood and power to the campaign over time.

[SoonerPride]

2. This is really good news.

Plus it would drive trump even more crazy.

[flamingdem]

3. Fingers crossed for Elizabeth! Warren supporters and women

of all ages will vote vote vote!

[USALiberal]

4. We need a younger VP. Nt

[Tom Rinaldo]

7. She is younger.

Than Biden

All things considered I would rather younger candidates also, but it isn't my highest priority. Warren has the most energy of all of our older candidates, I love her politics, and if on top of everything else she would help us win, that's good enough for me. I suspect Biden will be a one term president by choice, and Liz can pick a younger VP in 2024.

[Fiendish Thingy]

16. No evidence to support that opinion nt

[Hortensis]

22. The usual reason is to appeal to young voters...

[brush]

5. Warren with black voters? Doubtful.

An all-white ticket—not good.

[kcr]

8. Sorry, but the polls have been consistent.

She is the top choice.

[brush]

13. An all-white ticket is a mistake.

[Fiendish Thingy]

17. That's merely your opinion, not supported by evidence

This is the third national poll showing Warren as top choice among black voters.

[brush]

36. Yeah, sure. If Hillary had picked Julian Castro in 2016...

we wouldn't have had to deal with trump for four years.Why is it always about diversity when votes are needed but not when the top slots are in play? Whites have to realize that power must be shared with POCs, the most loyal base of the party.

Leave the all-white image to the all-white party, the racist repugs.

[brush]

37. That's only because there are four black women getting...

percentages too. Add those numbers up and it's way more than Warren's. Again, and all-white ticket is a mistake.

[CentralMass]

20. Biden is not from New England.

[CentralMass]

24. Your geography is off. Delaware borders Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey.

[panader0]

28. I stand corrected---duh...thanks

[CentralMass]

30. You are welcome :-)

[Qutzupalotl]

6. She would be my top choice.

My only concern is a Republican governor will pick her replacement, at least until a special election is held — in a year where every Senate seat counts. MA DUers, do I have that right?

[lagomorph777]

12. Good point - we can't pull any Senators out for this! Can't spare a single seat!

[Fiendish Thingy]

18. That is a fear based myth - MA legislature has Dem supermajority, can force Gov to select Dem

Dems can force governor to pick Dem to replace Warren until special election, and Dems have strong potential candidates for that that election, unlike when Scott Brown ran.

[Trumpocalypse]

25. How would they do that?

[Hortensis]

26. As Fiendish says, her senate seat would go to a Democrat.

In addition to very interesting reason Fiendish gives, there are others. The legalities and strategies were very carefully examined in 2015-16, when Warren was very seriously considered for VP.

The one I remember from back then is that MA law would allow her to formally notify that she would be resigning on one date, BUT to set the last date she would serve ahead. Theoretically, this apparently might be anywhere from the date of notice to the last day of her elected term.

I like the sound of the supermajority advantage this time, though.

[brooklynite]

31. Remember the last time there was a special Election to fill a Massachusetts Senate vacancy?

Maybe Martha Coakley could run again?

[judeling]

11. Not as good as the headline

Warren seems to have a plus 26% indication that she would help, paired with a -23% indication of people who say it would hurt.
A net 3
Harris and Klobuchar have a +1

Those are the three with a net positive but it looks like a big name id is the difference.

Interestingly the only candidate that seems to help Biden outside of the base is Klobuchar. She had a positive impact on the +45 voters the most reliable group. Everyone else had a negative impact.

This is a much better poll for Klobuchar's chances then anyone else.

[Grasswire2]

15. lol nt

[Fiendish Thingy]

19. Reread the tweet - you are mistaken - Warren provides a NET boost of 26%, not 3% nt

[judeling]

27. Read the source

26% say placing Warren on the ticket would make them more likely to vote for Biden; 23% say it’d make them less likely.
Her positive impact on Biden increased among black and Hispanic voters and those under the age of 45.
Several potential running mates lack name ID at an early stage in the process.

Morning Consult

[Hortensis]

35. "More likely" and "less likely" are not only not the same people,

but -- overall -- the latter group is already more predisposed to not vote Dem and the former more predisposed for. It's not discussed in the announcement, but the respondents aren't interchangeable and would require different messages and likely different investments of time and money, and running mate!, for different payoffs.

Seriously, how dependably can we draw people who would choose to vote for Trump or not vote against him at all because Warren was Biden's running mate? Many won't share some of our most important values, making them harder to secure and easier to lose for any number of reasons.

She did fairly poorly with some white men repelled by her too-iconoclastic ideas and/or their own misogyny when running for the presidency itself, and it's likely some of that negativism lingers. But if it does, this time she'd be running for VP serving at the wishes of a tall, moderately liberal, progressive white male very much more on their model.

[Grasswire2]

14. consistent with my thoughts, too

Nice to see the polling align.

[Trumpocalypse]

23. What was the effect in swing states

like Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina because that is the only result that matters.

[brooklynite]

29. That would be useful if youth voters actually voted...

[brooklynite]

32. How will she flip Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania?

How will she help pick up Arizona and North Carolina?

[Fiendish Thingy]

33. Haven't seen any state specific data with Warren on the ticket

But Biden is Currently ahead in all those swing states, IIRC.

[JonLP24]

34. If she is the top choice for Latino/Hispanics she will help out a lot in Arizona

And other potential swing states. Older voters are a Biden strength, he needs to address his weaknesses.