Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

ProudMNDemocrat

(16,783 posts)
Fri May 29, 2020, 02:59 PM May 2020

China owns a lot of US debt. They could declare financial war.

That is what Trump is basically saying. China could call in its debt and tell Trump to pay up. The Chinese hold the cards, not Trump.

Imagine what that would do to the world financial markets. Depression.

15 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
China owns a lot of US debt. They could declare financial war. (Original Post) ProudMNDemocrat May 2020 OP
Of course they could stopdiggin May 2020 #1
If you owe the bank $100 dollars, that's your problem... ExciteBike66 May 2020 #2
Or ours. gibraltar72 May 2020 #3
Late last fall, Wellstone ruled May 2020 #4
Why would China want to crash the value of its debt holdings? Voltaire2 May 2020 #5
No They Won't ProfessorGAC May 2020 #6
If you consider US corporate revenues inside China soryang May 2020 #10
I Didn't Say Otherwise ProfessorGAC May 2020 #15
What if trump refuses to pay? jmg257 May 2020 #7
well if the US defaults on debt then we become Venezuala in about 4 minutes. SoonerPride May 2020 #9
That is all thanks to Bushie usedtobedemgurl May 2020 #8
Government debt has set dates when it's payable muriel_volestrangler May 2020 #11
If the Chinese dump it on the markets, the Federal Reserve will monetize all of it. roamer65 May 2020 #12
China is a problem just like Russia rockfordfile May 2020 #13
That's because they are allies in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. roamer65 May 2020 #14

stopdiggin

(11,296 posts)
1. Of course they could
Fri May 29, 2020, 03:07 PM
May 2020

well known and established financial reality long before Trump took office.
(The only tether here is China's own financial interest. And we don't need any additional clues as to who is doing "rational" behavior these days)

ExciteBike66

(2,336 posts)
2. If you owe the bank $100 dollars, that's your problem...
Fri May 29, 2020, 03:08 PM
May 2020

if you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem -jp getty

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
4. Late last fall,
Fri May 29, 2020, 03:15 PM
May 2020

on a overnight Bloomberg,there was story after story about China preparing to unload US Treasuries. With in days the Virus hit,and this will once again happen.

ProfessorGAC

(64,995 posts)
6. No They Won't
Fri May 29, 2020, 03:41 PM
May 2020

First we hold their notes as well, and while the dollar amount is lower than their paper, the % of their GDP they owe us is larger than the reverse.
Financial war is self-immolating for the Chinese government.
In addition, and extra 15-20% of their entire cash flow (velocity of money) is rooted in exports to the US.
As a fraction of total GDP, China needs us even more than we need them.

soryang

(3,299 posts)
10. If you consider US corporate revenues inside China
Fri May 29, 2020, 04:16 PM
May 2020

...it's about even. While technically not a part of the trade balance, it will be just as damaging for US multinationals if their businesses are expropriated or shut down.

ProfessorGAC

(64,995 posts)
15. I Didn't Say Otherwise
Fri May 29, 2020, 05:26 PM
May 2020

I said they need us MORE. I didn't say it would not be bad for us too.
It's a symbiotic relationship.
Last note: more than 60% of American firms operating in China are producing for the far east economies.
Sales at wholesale or retail end up right in that part of the world. 60+%.
The tech sector is an outlier given the % of products imported into the US.
The fear is a trade confrontation that goes past the line.
When symbionts have no interchange, there is nothing to lose.
Wars start that way.

SoonerPride

(12,286 posts)
9. well if the US defaults on debt then we become Venezuala in about 4 minutes.
Fri May 29, 2020, 03:53 PM
May 2020

Loaf of bread for $1400

Sounds fun doesn't it?

usedtobedemgurl

(1,137 posts)
8. That is all thanks to Bushie
Fri May 29, 2020, 03:50 PM
May 2020

He sold off more debt than ever had been traditionally. Those wars were not going to finance themselves! At the time it was brought up the Chinese could take us to our knees without a single billet. Thanks, rethuglicans!!!

muriel_volestrangler

(101,306 posts)
11. Government debt has set dates when it's payable
Fri May 29, 2020, 04:47 PM
May 2020

So "call in its debt" isn't accurate. What they could do is decide not to buy any new debt (which will be needed to replace the expiring debt, and to increase the total size, because all governments are now borrowing more); that might make others demand higher interest to buy it instead.

That would happen over a period of time; Trump probably couldn't give a shit by now, as long as he make it to November.

roamer65

(36,745 posts)
12. If the Chinese dump it on the markets, the Federal Reserve will monetize all of it.
Fri May 29, 2020, 05:03 PM
May 2020

They’ll buy all of it.

Where you will eventually see the effect from the sale is in inflation.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»China owns a lot of US de...