Considering that Biden is consistently leading trump in the swing state polls,

[Poiuyt]

why do the betting sites give trump a better chance of winning? I know that it's still early, and that the incumbent has a built in advantage, but if I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Biden.

Battle for the White House
RCP Poll Averages
Election 2020 Biden Trump Spread
RCP National Average 48.4 42.5 Biden +5.9
Betting Odds 45.1 49.0
Electoral College 183 125

Battlegrounds Biden Trump Spread
Wisconsin 46.0 43.3 Biden +2.7
Pennsylvania 48.3 41.8 Biden +6.5
North Carolina 45.8 46.8 Trump +1.0
Florida 48.3 44.8 Biden +3.5

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[Doodley]

1. Polls don't take cheating into account. Fake smears, voter suppression, Putin, etc..

[unblock]

5. Yeah plus you know there will be some late October "surprise"

they're really good at giving the Republican a last minute boost. I mean look what they got last time out of duplicate copies of non-evidence in a fake scandal.

Seriously, she was completely exonerated, no evidence of wrongdoing, but then the media spends a week imagining what if there was some evidence of... something....


Anyway, they could certainly do the same with Biden

[OrlandoDem2]

2. Because there are white people who won't say support Trump

But they’ll vote for him privately.

The GOP runs a very sophisticated GOTV campaign aimed at getting white males of all ages, income, and education levels to vote for them. They are successful. Do not underestimate them. These polls will tighten.

As a white male, I find it embarrassing.

[brooklynite]

3. Polls are an expression of intent TODAY...

Consider that the George Floyd story didn't exist a week ago. Conditions can change radically.

[Skidmore]

4. Who bets on those sites?

People who really vote? Those trying to create a talking point?

[mr_lebowski]

6. What these betting odds really mean is that there is more money on the Trump side

If it's 45.1 to 49.0 it means that betting Trump will have a slightly lower payout % versus a bet on Biden.

The goal of bookmakers in setting the odds is to get even money on both sides.

That way they make their vig (% or cut) with zero risk.

Something to always keep in mind when looking at 'odds' when money is involved.