If you're worried that the protests will help Trump, relax. Don't assume this is a 1968 situation.

[Music Man]

I think we all know the trauma of 2016 and are anxious to see things proceed in an ideal, predictable manner before Election Day given that Biden is currently doing quite well poll-wise. Even if the polls showed a 538-0 electoral victory over Trump, we'd still all be nervous, and the intensity surrounding the racial issues at hand doesn't help our anxiety. I too am nervous about how the voting public will perceive these events.

But a few things:

Donald Trump is an incumbent. Many people fear a 1968 scenario in which violent protests and the feeling of a nation ripping apart at the seams helped elect Nixon. But Nixon was a challenger. Middle America was receptive to a law and order type. Trump has an actual presidential record to run on now, and it's an abysmal one. Just like Covid, Trump has shown an inability to lead in this current race crisis. Indeed, he has made it worse.

I also think about the 1992 Rodney King riots. Clinton won a landslide election that year. Even any undecided voters who perceive the current protests as irresponsible are quite capable of compartmentalizing the issues and knowing that Biden is a superior leader to Trump.

Ultimately, people vote for the candidates. Certain events may move the needle, but the fundamental characteristics of each candidate and the environment surrounding the election remain. For instance, the 2008 economic crash certainly shaped that race, harming the incumbent party. But Obama was the better candidate anyway. Crises can help or hinder presidents, depending on how they respond, and the current situation, like so much else, has shown that when he faces adversity, Donald Trump is indeed a failure.

[enid602]

1. 'Law and Order'

Trump knows he can't run on the economy or his response to Covid. He'll run on 'law and order.' Remember, Chauvin, the MPLS cop, was a speaker at Trump's October, 2019 MPLS rally. He kept his knee on Floyd's neck for a full three minutes after he stopped breathing, and none of the other cops tried to get rid of onlookers or take away their cell phones. This was all scripted to cause riots. 'Law and order.'

[2naSalit]

3. +1

[Music Man]

9. I would love to see Biden counter that in a debate.

Trump: "We need law and order. Democrats would let this country get out of hand."

Biden: [Laughs] "Eight people from your campaign and administration have been convicted of felonies. And now you're lookin' at me talking about law and order?"

[backscatter712]

2. That, and the Law-and-Order schtick may very well backfire on Trump.

The saving grace with Trump is the fact that he's dumber than a box of rocks.

He waaaaaay overplayed his hand, especially with the "When the looting starts, the shooting starts" tweet - got smacked down by Twitter for that.

And now we're seeing clip after clip after clip of rioting cops (yes, I'm calling it a police riot) shooting journalists with pepperballs, slamming people to the ground, pepper-spraying kids, and thus being waaaay out of control.

Really, what we're seeing is Bloody Sunday 1965, at the Edmund Pettus Bridge.

The cops are about to learn why it's not a good idea to attack journalists...

[Music Man]

4. Well said.

[Wounded Bear]

5. Actually, Nixon was not an incumbant in 1968...

so if things turn out like then and the party in the white house flips, I'd be just fine with it.

Johnson could have, and probably should have run in '68 but he declined.

[Music Man]

7. I think you misread my post.

I said that Trump is an incumbent but Nixon was a challenger, hence the major difference.

[Wounded Bear]

8. Not really, since Johnson declined to run...

It was an open election.

[Music Man]

10. I guess my point is that I didn't say Nixon was an incumbent.

[Wounded Bear]

11. I get that. I actually agree that this shouldn't be good for Trump's chances...

In a just world, they wouldn't be.

[tableturner]

13. Not really....Humphrey was Johnson's VP, country was in chaos, public wanted a clean sweep.

In a lot of ways, Humphrey was treated as the incumbent. That makes sense, and just like what we hope happens to Trump, with hell flying in all directions, he suffered from the public's desire to see it all stop.

[pecosbob]

6. I think he overplayed his hand and it will hurt him

but I also think it will be the economy that kills his re-election chances. The stock market will recover but consumer spending will not return to a semblance of normalcy this year. It's always the economy.

As to the '68 election everyone has their opinion but I think the Dems were far, far more divided than now.

[4139]

12. Lots wrong with your post; Bill Clinton only got 43% of the vote, Nixon won 49 states in 1972

[Music Man]

14. Understood, but the 1992 electoral vote was 370-168, a landslide.

And despite conservative myths to the contrary, Perot took votes about equally from Bush and Clinton.

The Rodney King riots did not cost Clinton the election (or California). I don't think you can contend that.

And I'm aware Nixon won big in '72. But I'm not talking about 1972. I'm talking about 1968 and the differences between the intense unrest of that year and its correlation with an election. Moreover, McGovern led a flawed campaign in '72, which further supports what I'm saying: That the overall climate that surrounds an election and the relative characteristics of the candidates are what are at play rather than any one event.