Is there confirmation of that jobs number? How could predictions have been so far off?

[Grasswire2]

Anyone?

It seems impossible.

[Newest Reality]

1. I'll check with the Ministry of Truth

I'll check with the Ministry of Truth and the Ministry of Plenty on that and get back to you.

The BIG LIE is the absolute truth. Love Big Bother.

[orwell]

5. Hey...

...that's my line.

[bigtree]

2. .

Schumer Exposes Trump's Job Gains Stimulus Pumped Up Fraud
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213549206
posted by, applegrove

[ProfessorGAC]

3. They Weren't That Far Off

They have a notation that they're not counting UE directly attributable to COVID.
They acknowledge that including those people brings the number to 16.2%.
The prediction was 20 +/- 2. So 18% would have been in range. This number is only 10% relative, low.
It's lower than expected, but not dramatically.

[orwell]

6. The Prof is correct...

...the old damn lies and statistics routine.

They effectively changed their methodology.

[ProfessorGAC]

7. Actually, They Didn't

In order to preserve a sense of long term trends, they have excluded extrinsic events for years and years.
But, they don't hide the numbers.
They don't put those numbers in footnotes size 6 font on page 8.
More like report font under the primary table saying they excluded x people because of XXX.
I've read reports from the 70s when I was doing economic models for my MBA. Of course, 70s data wasn't that old when I was in biz school!
It's not really cooking the books because they acknowledge the values and do it regularly.
Either way, UE3 went down from April. Unadjusted, it went for around 19 to around 16%.
All that said, isn't it ridiculous for PINO and Rs to be victory lapping when the number is still 13-16%?

[Atticus]

4. Don't have the site, but I read somewhere today that 4.9 million people who were not

working due to the pandemic were counted as "employed but at home" or some such nonsense.

[tritsofme]

8. President Obama's chair of the CEA and his BLS Commissioner don't believe there is manipulation

Link to tweet

[Yavin4]

9. PPP - Payroll Protection Program

Govt paid workers that would have been laid off.

[uponit7771]

10. They weren't BLS committed the same **MISTAKE** 3 months in row then footnoted it as if

... that "mistake" means they are left off the hook.

No one wants to explain how the Continuing Unemployment Claims have gone up but U3 UE has gone down ... that's a true divergence of data.