New cases rising but death rate lower

[helpisontheway]

I watched a quick clip on tv. Reporter said if he could ask Dr. Fauci a question it would be why are new cases rising while death rates are lower? Are doctors getting better at treating covid? Or is the virus beginning to get weaker like the doctors in Italy said? The Italy part is my question. I noticed in VA for the longest our new cases were over 1,000 each day with between 30-45 deaths. For a few days last week the new cases and deaths dropped. I think new cases were between 600-800 for a few days) and deaths were like low double digits to low teens). Then yesterday the new cases jumped to 1,200 and deaths remain relatively low (12). It is strange because in New York all the numbers are trending in the right direction.

[LisaL]

1. Deaths lag behind the rising cases because it takes a long while for covid patients to die.

[jmg257]

2. Yep,- patients will be on a ventilator for weeks and weeks.

SIL nurse says as many as 40-50 days.

[Squinch]

3. We are finally getting some more testing, so perhaps one reason is that more mild cases

are being detected.

BUT that will only hold for a small amount of time. The increased testing explains only one level of increase in cases. The cases in places like Florida and Texas seem to have increased and keep increasing, which indicates spread and not a testing explanation.

[FBaggins]

4. Broader testing picks up more people

It doesn’t change the number who are infected... but it does increase the number who are counted. That necessarily lowers the measured percentage of those who die... but doesn’t necessarily reflect an actual change in how deadly the virus is.

[exboyfil]

5. You also have the issue with reported mortalities

Which has been politicized. I also honestly think that the strain circulating now in the Northern Hemisphere is less severe than the original one. It could be a case that the initial virus load which is a strong indicator of severity has been diminished by the actions we are taking (which of the two, I don't know). I do think it seems like a really bad idea to be in an enclosed area with a lots of singing, shouting, or elevated exercise respiration especially without a mask.

[Hortensis]

6. No answer, but we've apparently long known that viruses usually get weaker

as they evolve for survival over the long term. Those that survive at least. SARS-1's fatal flaw was that it killed relatively quickly and at high rates, and at that time we quickly identified and leaped on it everywhere it appeared until we couldn't find any more to kill.