This is interesting: "The U.S. entered a recession in February"

[gratuitous]

Link to the MSN story here.

The U.S. entered a recession in February, according to the official economic arbiter

The worst U.S. downturn since the Great Depression is now officially a recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Though it seemed a foregone conclusion, the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions, made the declaration Monday as the nation tries to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

* * *

As a rule of thumb, recessions are thought to entail two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. However, that isn't always the case, and it's generally the NBER's decision to determine recessions.

The committee noted that "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, normally visible in production, employment, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of economic activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough."

Note that this recession began in February, back when noted epidemiologist Dr. Trump was claiming that the number of Covid-19 cases would soon be at zero, before widespread shutdown measures had been instituted.

[Nevilledog]

1. K & R

[Mike 03]

2. Very interesting.

I hope the Biden campaign and the Lincoln Project see this and put it to good use.

Some experts at Bloomberg News have been arguing that US manufacturing (or some particular sectors of the economy) has been in a state of near recession for 12 to 18 months.

[J_William_Ryan]

3. This, then, would be the Trump Recession.

[roamer65]

6. So far the Trumpcession.

Could still be the Trumpression.

[genxlib]

4. I had wondered about the definition

Historically, I had always heard the definition as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP

Which raised the question in my mind. What happens if we have one awful quarter but the inevitable rebound keeps it from being two. I think in this case, the down period spread into two quarters but it raised the specter that one of the worst economic periods of history might not actually trigger the official definition.

I was not aware that there was another means to simply declare one based on the feelings of the committee.

[DrToast]

7. That's why two consecutive quarters isn't used

When the tech bubble burst, it didn’t result in two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. But nobody would say there wasn’t a recession in 2001.

Similarly, it’s possible we won’t have two consecutive negative quarters this time either. But the NBER has already said that due to the drastic decrease in economic activity, it should be considered a recession.

Now here’s the thing some people may not like. When the NBER decides when the recession ended, they may settle on May or June. It doesn’t mean everything is fine with the economy; it just means it stopped contracting then.

[genxlib]

8. Anyone that thinks the hard times are over is in for a surprise.

I realize that the technical definition of the recession may mean it gets called over. But the effects will linger much longer than the stock market would have you believe.

My guess is it will show a second peak and slide from there. It will be all part of the same recession whether it gets defined that way or not. Just too much spending not taking place for industries like retail, dining, travel, etc.

[DrToast]

9. As I said, it won't mean everything is fine

[roamer65]

5. In early 1930 they thought it was a recession.

Boy, were they WRONG.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

10. Tired of winning yet?

So much winning.

[soothsayer]

11. I feel so stupid

I know that the more often he says something, the bigger the lie. It’s a “where there’s smoke, there’s fire” thing, where whatever he’s trying to sell, the opposite is really true.

I had thought his endless “greatest economy” schtick was to cover the fact that people were already broke 2 weeks into quarantine.

Obviously it was a much bigger lie to cover a much bigger fact: his recession.

Lying liar.