Survey: Business economists expect worst slump since 1940s

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Business economists expect the United States to suffer its worst downturn this year in more than seven decades before growth resumes sometime next year.

Overhanging that forecast, though, is the risk that a second wave of the coronavirus could threaten the economy once again.

A survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics predicts that the gross domestic product — the total value of goods and services produced in the United States — will fall 5.9% for 2020 as a result of the recession triggered by the virus. That would be the sharpest annual decline since GDP fell 11.6% in 1946, when the nation was demobilizing after World War II.

The NABE panel of 48 forecasters expects the 5% annual GDP drop that occurred in the January-March quarter to be followed by a record 33.5% annual plunge in the current April-June quarter. Yet the NABE panel foresees economic growth returning in the second half of the year, with strong annual expansions of 9.1% in the July-September quarter and 6.8% in the October-December quarter. Even so, those gains would fall far short of making up for the dizzying economic contraction in the first half of this year.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/survey-business-economists-expect-worst-slump-since-1940s/ar-BB15aWUC?li=BBnbfcN&ocid=hplocalnews

[doc03]

1. Why in hell has the stock market hit new highs? I

am 72 and have never seen anything like this.

[roamer65]

2. Federal Reserve quantitative easing.

The large scale bond purchases is forcing money into equities.

If that doesn’t work, the Fed will buy equities outright.

[Mariana]

5. The Federal Government is spending hundreds of billions of dollars

of borrowed money to prop it up. That's why. The prices are artificial and have little or no relation to actual value.

[doc03]

6. But Congress gave it away both sides. I will say

this for the 20th time not one Republican voted to save the economy in 2009.

[Mariana]

7. And? nt.

[doc03]

8. I can't answer that without violating the rules. nt

[Mariana]

10. OK.

Regardless of who decided to make it to happen, that's why the stock prices are higher than they would be, if they reflected reality.

[smirkymonkey]

14. House of cards.

It will be ugly when it all comes crashing down. They are just hoping it doesn't happen before November.

[uponit7771]

3. The economy isn't going to return to growth because its the 3rd quarter.

[doc03]

9. The GDP dropped in the second quarter but even though

it is still in the tank if it rises in the 3rd we are not in
a recession. It is a recession when the GDP drops 2 quarters it will not drop so Trump can technicly claim growth is back on track. From what I see at the shopping centers the trafic is back like it was 3 months ago.

[uponit7771]

12. Traffic is back spending is not in the growth has to be year-over-year. GDP can't fall.95% ...

Then rise back 25% in two quarters in people say that's growth it's not it's not back to year-over-year par

[doc03]

13. But if the GDP increases in the second quarter over the 1st we are not technically in a recession

isn't that right? Maybe I misunderstand that? In 2008 we had several quarters with negative growth before it reversed in I believe the
2nd quarter of 2009. Even though we were technically not in a recession it took years to recover back where we were.
When trump came to office he inherited the longest economic growth in history and claimed he did it and a large part of the country believes his bullshit. This morning according to the polls the economy is the only area where he still leads Biden.

[uponit7771]

15. No, if GDP fell 50% from its previous q in 1st q then increased 25% in 3rd that's still negative GDP

... for the year.

The growth has to start from the peak of previous quarters not trough of a down quarter.

[Thekaspervote]

4. But dotard claims the recovery is back!

[gulliver]

11. With Dem policies in place, we can weather this and set a good pattern for the future.

Imo, it's never been a great idea to put ourselves at the mercy of the whims of the economy. The economy is something we do, and it makes little sense to think of it as something we can't do anything about. Government can and should make capitalism shockproof to all passengers.

We should be thankful Republicans don't have the House. They'd be doing tax cuts and austerity. If they are allowed to keep the White House and Senate, they'll go right back to their old ways of letting people who depend on a paycheck suffer without limit during downturns.