A sobering interview with a top epidemiologist

[spinbaby]

And why we should worry if the virus looks like it’s disappearing now. A bit of a long read, but well worth it.

https://www.bluezones.com/2020/06/covid-19-straight-answers-from-top-epidemiologist-who-predicted-the-pandemic/?fbclid=IwAR0cEc_cNSPhxXTnW_93btbFPxVTEEXx6eQxMZmwWkmBbcEQVMNTv0YxCZc

[pdxflyboy]

1. Very interesting read, spinbaby.

I think that people are way too optimistic about this epidemic winding down. We shouldn't be. Thank you for posting this.

[soothsayer]

2. Good read.

Thanks.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

3. Thanks.

And I just put his book, Deadliest Enemy:Our war against killer germs on hold at my local library. They're re-opened to do curbside delivery of books, which is wonderful.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

4. Good article!

Found this part especially interesting:

First of all, the Sweden model no longer exists. It was a myth to begin with. And it now is even being heavily criticized within Sweden to the point where there’s actually a criminal investigation going on about what did or didn’t happen in their long-term care. Sweden has one of the highest death rates in the world in terms of number of people that have died per population. They have not advanced any meaningful way towards a herd immunity level and are not much higher than the United States is right now. And they recognize in retrospect that maybe they didn’t accomplish all that they thought they were going to.

[roamer65]

5. My gut feeling was 500,000 to 1,000,000

Wow...he’s 800,000 to 1,600,000.

[TreadSoftly]

6. Interesting section about why swine are associated with these viruses

My summary: birds make flus, then swine catch the flus & combine with human bits of replication matter, and voila! Part of the section on why we call them all "swine flu".

Put the farmers in bubble suits & we can prevent the next pandemic.

[Mike 03]

7. Stupendous interview but frightening

If it’s like influenza, of which there have been 10 such pandemics in the last 250 plus years, three started in our North American winter, two in our spring, three in our summer, and two in our fall. And in each instance when that happened, there was a wave that lasted several months, much like we’re seeing now around the world that seemed to disappear after several months. We don’t know what happens to the virus and it is not just based on season — it’s always just after a few months. In every instance the virus came back with a second wave. And when that happened, usually three to four months after that initial wave was over, it tended to be much, much more severe.

[dweller]

8. we need an FDR or a Churchill

not the toxic needy amin we are cursed with ..

✌🏼

[Muriel]

9. Perhaps this is what "Herd Immunity" looks like

People read and hear (and see) about folks carrying on as though this whole nightmare is behind us - streets full of protesters, beaches full of beach goers, stores full of shoppers. How can all these people be wrong? How come I see people out and about without masks?
Maybe we should call it "Herd Mentality." The numbers will bear out the truth. Until then, I will continue to be careful.

[maxsolomon]

11. I marched Saturday night.

99% of those in the crowd were masked.

[mn9driver]

10. Osterholm is the real deal.

I doubt there is any single person in the world who is more qualified to talk about this stuff. The main takeaway I got from this is that the virus is by no means done with us. Be emotionally and physically prepared for what will sooner or later happen. Because it will.

[crickets]

12. Sobering, a good read. Thanks, spinbaby. nt

[mackdaddy]

13. Good Summary for the Article:

Here are the highlights of our conversation. But if you really want to understand this disease, read the whole interview. This disease may be the biggest event of our lifetimes.

- 3 months ago, COVID-19 was not even in the top 75 causes of death in this country. Much of the last month, it was the #1 cause of death in this country. This is more remarkable than the 1918 Flu pandemic.
- There is no scientific indication Covid-19 will disappear of its own accord.
- If you’re under age 55, obesity is the #1 risk factor. So, eating the right diet, getting physical activity, and managing stress are some of the most important things you can do to protect yourself from the disease.
- One of the best things we can do for our aging parents is to get them out into the fresh air, while maintaining physical (not social) distancing.
- Wearing a cloth mask does not protect you much if you’re in close contact with someone who is COVID-19 contagious. It may give you 10 minutes, instead of five, to avoid contracting the disease.
- We can expect COVID-19 to infect 60% – 70% of Americans. That’s around 200 million Americans.
- We can expect between 800,000 and 1.6 million Americans to die in the next 18 months if we don’t have a successful vaccine.
- There is no guarantee of an effective vaccination and even if we find one, it may only give short term protection.
- Speeding a vaccination into production carries its own risks.
- The darkest days are still ahead of us. We need moral leadership, the command leadership that doesn’t minimize what’s before us but allows everyone to see that we’re going to get through it.