Excellent article on what to expect from COVID-19 in the next 12-18 months. (hint: it'll get worse)

[tinrobot]

COVID-19: Straight Answers from Top Epidemiologist Who Predicted the Pandemic

(snip)

In short, Dr. Osterholm is arguably one of the most dependable, non-political sources for straight answers on what COVID-19 means to us and our world in the immediate future. In his 2017 book, Deadliest Enemy, he correctly foretells a global pandemic and offers the best strategy for fighting it now and avoiding it in the future.

Here are the highlights of our conversation. But if you really want to understand this disease, read the whole interview. This disease may be the biggest event of our lifetimes.

-- 3 months ago, COVID-19 was not even in the top 75 causes of death in this country. Much of the last month, it was the #1 cause of death in this country. This is more remarkable than the 1918 Flu pandemic.

-- There is no scientific indication Covid-19 will disappear of its own accord.

-- If you’re under age 55, obesity is the #1 risk factor. So, eating the right diet, getting physical activity, and managing stress are some of the most important things you can do to protect yourself from the disease.

-- One of the best things we can do for our aging parents is to get them out into the fresh air, while maintaining physical (not social) distancing.

-- Wearing a cloth mask does not protect you much if you’re in close contact with someone who is COVID-19 contagious. It may give you 10 minutes, instead of five, to avoid contracting the disease.

-- We can expect COVID-19 to infect 60% – 70% of Americans. That’s around 200 million Americans.

-- We can expect between 800,000 and 1.6 million Americans to die in the next 18 months if we don’t have a successful vaccine.

https://www.bluezones.com/2020/06/covid-19-straight-answers-from-top-epidemiologist-who-predicted-the-pandemic


The whole article is really worth the read. The bottom line is that this is NOT going away and, unfortunately, wearing masks, washing your hands, and staying physically distant will be the new normal for a while.

One slightly positive note is that this expert thinks that being outside is a lot safer than being indoors. Hopefully that will protect some of the protesters.

[JustAnotherGen]

1. I'm preparing my 73 year old mother now

My brother and I are not 'hoarding' per se - but we go to Costco one day for ourselves - and one day for her. My husband will be driving a lot of stuff up to her in a few weeks.

She's old school and has always gardened, canned, etc. etc. Has a deep freezer.

However - I've seen the prices go up and I don't want this to run her into the poorhouse - when she most likely will live into her 90's - if we can keep her safe and sound.

If those of us who can do this now for our family members who are on fixed incomes, or just getting by - it will help them come September when this explodes. It also frees up the food pantries for those who don't have any one to help them get through it.

I know it's a 'small' thing - but I'm preparing to be back working from home completely in September. I'm currently going in 3 days a week on a limited schedule - as parts of my work require official stamps, seals, notarization, etc. etc.

[quaint]

3. Stocking your mom's pantry qualifies you for sainthood.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

2. I already read it, but thanks for posting it!

Comments in the article from a very esteemed epidemiologist.

[Shanti Mama]

4. Thx for posting this

Scary and good to know.

[leftyladyfrommo]

5. I am looking at 18 more months by myself.

I am already talking to myself because I live alone. And I carry on conversations with my dogs.

After 18 months I may be curled up in a corner babbling incoherently.

[USALiberal]

6. Lol! I hope not! Nt

[zeusdogmom]

9. I hear you loud and clear

Because I'm in the same boat. Gettin' kind of tired of it but I will continue to stay as safe as I can and that means for the most part remaining here at home. Summer so far hasn't been too bad. When I walk Zeus, I usually see someone to chat with for a bit. FaceTime the grandkids. Zoom knitting group - better than nothing. Ditto worship service on YouTube. But no community band, no choir, no handbells, no zoo. If I dwell on it, I feel sad. So I really try to focus on the good stuff - my garden, my yard, the wonderful sounds of kids in houses around me playing and having a good time in their yards, the beautiful wooded biking/walking paths our city has wisely installed over the years, a delicious meal on my deck with a glass of wine and a good book. Would I prefer a dinner companion? Of course, but I don't have one and that is simply the way it is. Plus I can wear perfume without worrying about making someone feel ill. And that wonderfully glittery eyeshadow in an otherwise "age appropriate color" pallet of shadows - it's on my eyelids right now because no one is going to see me without sunglasses. 😄

[tanyev]

7. Marking to read later.

[Cal Carpenter]

8. Very helpful, thanks for posting!

As a mom-and-pop retail store owner, this reinforces our decision to stick with curbside only. We could open to the public now but we have chosen not to. Gratefully our regular customers haven't challenged us on this and have stayed loyal and supportive. Looks like we are doing the right thing. Hopefully we can keep paying the rent.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

10. Bless your heart.

Not in the Southern way of saying it either.

Thanks for behaving responsibly during this pandemic!

[Cal Carpenter]

13. Awww, thanks!

[berni_mccoy]

11. Link is broken

[Buckeye_Democrat]

12. It worked for me just now.

[berni_mccoy]

14. Thanks. Must have been down for a minute

[dixiegrrrrl]

15. It's getting worse in the stupid states already

We had no real lockdown, only a couple weeks of stay-at- home, poor compliance of mask use and social distancing.
It's now been 18 days since our Ala. Gov. opened things up on Memorial Day weekend.
People went to the beaches, had bar-b-q get togethers, etc. Southerners love to socialize, they felt very deprived of lots of company.

I am told, that in celebration of the Memorial Weekend opening, there was a "block party" in the town square, which is about a mile from me. Food, drinks, music.....etc. 2 week's ago.

Much to official's surprise, all the state's Covid-19 charts shot straight up.

My very rural county went from 34 cases to 95 cases in the past 2 weeks. That is a big jump for here.