Shits gonna get real II. Saw my cardiologist today. He has daily teleconferences with contemporaries

[Floyd R. Turbo]

around the world. The consensus is that the next wave of COVID-19 will occur in August. Hardest hit will be India, South America, Russia, Africa, and the southern United States.

[applegrove]

1. F that!

[Budi]

2. Appreciate the heads up. We've been warned.

Stay cautious everyone.

[BannonsLiver]

3. Really?

My dentist thinks it’ll be the northern US, and Antarctica. I haven’t checked with my proctologist. I’m supposed to talk to him next week about my retirement funds. Will get on that.

[underpants]

6. My oncologist sees that.

[Floyd R. Turbo]

56. You go to the dentist?!

[underpants]

4. Consider health care and transit.

I got word that we are going back July 6. Educational job training type thing.


Hold on Floyd. This is some shit.

[Baitball Blogger]

5. It is starting up in the States now.

[Wounded Bear]

38. We triggered it early.

[Baitball Blogger]

45. +1

[ananda]

54. Yeah. We were expecting a spike about now..

.. and here it is.

[Blue_playwright]

7. A friend who works at a prison said...

... the same thing. CDC sent them information to prep for a boom in August. She knew I was stockpiling so I can minimize my time in public and told me to move up my timeline. Lol.

[Doodley]

8. Why would it be in August? There's nothing special about August for the spread of the virus in

America. The spread is happening now as states reopen too soon with too many existing cases, not enough testing and not enough PPE or social distancing. We are going to have exponential growth from now onwards.

[SunSeeker]

27. August is when we will hit 200,000 dead, and run out of ICU beds in a lot of places in the US. nt

[roamer65]

9. Africa is spiking really bad.

Al Jazeera English covered that and the spiking in the southern US and Mexico tonite on their news.

Mexico is really bad, Brazil has passed 40,000 dead.

[dixiegrrrrl]

29. Alabama made news by a huge spike this week.

Part of the reason was a deliberately vague "correction" of a "reporting problem" the lat few weeks.

But, it's 18 days since our Gov. opened the state starting Memorial Day weekend. My county's cases have tripled.

This is same state, along with Fla. and Miss. who lied for months bout how safe the water was after BP's big well blowout,
just to encourage the tourists.

[AC_Mem]

10. Incubation Period

I think that the current numbers are being under reported because they are not pushing for testing. I'm in Florida and the numbers are not stable and are not going down. Every day they are increasing. Why isn't the virus counter on the news anymore so that we can see this?

Memorial Day was a little over 2 weeks ago, just about the incubation period (incubation period is said to be 14 days +/- 4-5 days). I would say that we will be seeing a spike soon because that was the beginning of us really seeing crowds of people almost on top of each other (remember the pool pics). The protests started right around that time as well, give or take a day.

If infected people were among the holiday crowds or the protesting crowds, we WILL see a spike - this week or next week, based on scientific evidence of the incubation period.

a

[former9thward]

13. It is not happening.

There have been posts and predictions since May 1 when states starting re-opening that deaths would explode in " two weeks". It has not happened. People posted 3000 people would be dying every day by June 1. Instead the deaths have dropped. But people will never admit they were wrong...

[AC_Mem]

16. Yes it is happening

Are Covid cases increasing in Florida?

– Florida has reported an increase of 1,096 COVID-19 cases over the past 24 hours. It's the sixth day in the past week that the state has confirmed over 1,000 new cases.2 days ago

https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/06/11/coronavirus-florida-reports-record-1698-new-cases-in-one-day/

[obamanut2012]

62. And deaths are steadly (albeit slowly) declining in many counties

Including mine.

[Chemisse]

18. Much alarm has been spread about the recent increases

But if you look at the charts, it's still far lower than it was 8 weeks ago, and the overall new cases each day is pretty much plateaued.

So we'll see.

[Blue_true]

26. If you look at regional trend charts.

The Northeast is dropping very fast, that region accounted for the big problems 8 weeks ago. The South and West are continuously rising, with the South rising about 50% faster than the West. The MidWest is falling, though not as fast as the Northeast. The Pacific Northwest is falling, though slowest of the falling regions.

What is happening is a regional shift in hotspots is occurring. The South is slowly moving up to where the Northeast was a six weeks ago, but nowhere near the late February numbers for the Notheast.

The issue is that the South and Interior West simply don't have the ICU hospital beds that the Nottheast has, by a factor of around 3. So reaching the early May numbers that the Northeast had will likely be hugely problematic for the South.

[appalachiablue]

59. +1 Adequate hosptal beds is a huge issue, among others

[Chemisse]

76. Aren't their ICU beds proportional to their populations?

(I don't actually know, but it would make sense that they would be.)

If so, they will have a big problem with fewer patients, and the lower numbers we are seeing at the moment - if concentrated in states with lower population densities - are equally as disastrous as the larger numbers have been for New York and New Jersey.

I am curious to see if there will be an uptick in states that have been seeing their numbers going down, following the massive numbers of people out protesting.

[Blue_true]

78. ICU beds vary by state. They vary even within states.

For example, Louisiana and Alabama are on the high end for having ICU beds per 10,000 population. Lousiana got overrun by COVID-19 and Alabama has moved patients to ICU beds.

Florida, Texas, Mississippi have marginally more ICU beds that New York or New Jersey, but fewer than Louisiana.

Other factors to consider when looking at ICU bed numbers are the median age of populations and the median Health condition of populations. The South, for example, have more people that are obese and have conditions like diabetes and coronary problems than say New York or New Jersey.

[obamanut2012]

63. Yup, and waaaay fewer deaths

In almost all FL counties, including mine, and I'm in one of the hardest hit .

[Blue_true]

72. So, you trust DeSantis not to put underhanded pressure on

Medical examiners and hospitals to report COVID-19 deaths as another cause? You have wasaaayyyy more faith in DeSantis and his administrative goons than I.

[dixiegrrrrl]

32. My state just reported its biggest surge of patients in one day

Over 800. My county went from 36 to 95 cases this week.

2 weeks since Memorial Day weekend when stay home restrictions were lifted. Not only did people attend crowded public venues, there was not much mask wearing.

On Jun1, USA deaths were 106, 925
They increased by roughly a 1,000 every day.
Today's number is 116,034.

Here's one of the tracking sites:
https://ncov2019.live/data

[Blue_true]

73. When New York and New Jersey were having big issues,

there were 10,000 people dying every 6-7 days. So deaths have dropped. There could be several reasons for that, but I believe the major one is hospitals have learned enough to keep people alive longer or alive period. I don't believe COVID-19 has miraculously become less of a threat.

What is the truth. I believe that with red states being the places with more issues relative to COVID-19, knowing the exact number of COVID-19 dead is going to become a challenge, that is why I think that anyone who claims to be progressive implying that we have somehow turned some positive corner is being delusional. Places like NYC and New Jersey are better, but leaders in those places have shown massive discipline.

[uponit7771]

55. my understanding 14 days is for large crowds to show symptoms and then three weeks to a month

.... For s*** to really hit the fan which is what's happening right now in Texas California and Florida

[AC_Mem]

75. Another Post on DU

just validated my suspicions, that the numbers are being under reported. She was asked to present different numbers than what was factual and was fired when she would not do it - so she created her own dashboard with facts, and the facts are not good for Florida. I'm not good at adding links, etc. - the story is on the Home page of DU and the link to her dashboard is https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/

I do my best not to post BS that I can't back up.

[eleny]

11. Time to sew more masks and slowly gather household supplies again

And keep the deep freeze filled.

Let people make jokes. We need jokes 'o plenty. But I remember people chiding me when I posted about starting to stock up back in February. Then March rolled in and the joking quit abruptly when the tp vanished from the shelves.

[roamer65]

14. THIS.

I stocked up on hand sanitizer in late January.

Been keeping a running reserve of TP and food.

[A HERETIC I AM]

33. Buy 151 or higher proof grain alcohol.

If you can't find hand sanitizer, anything higher than 70% ethyl alcohol will do the same job as Isopropyl (rubbing) alcohol.



And what you don't use, you can make cocktails out of!

[roamer65]

36. I hafta watch alcohol consumption.

Pre-diabetic.

[A HERETIC I AM]

37. You can sanitize with it

You get that, right?

That's the point I was making.

You don't HAVE to drink it.

[ProfessorGAC]

46. Everclear Is Much Cheaper

And it's 95% ethanol. So, you can cut the fifth with water, getting 43 ounces of 70% alcohol.
If you can't find IPA, it's a better alternative that 151 rum.
BTW: there is essentially no efficacy difference between ethanol & isopropanol. IPA is preferred by micro experts because it evaporates a bit slower. So, the 15-30 seconds needed is better assured.

[tavernier]

47. My kids make some awesome Kahlua with it

and gift it for Christmas to all friends and relatives.

Doncha just love a dual purpose alcohol?

[womanofthehills]

64. Everclear is also on the list of sold out items

Have not been able to find any for months

[ProfessorGAC]

66. Available Here

Has been the whole time, too.
I'm not needing any as IPA is available again. Both 70 & 99% in most stores. IPA is cheaper, no matter what, but especially since there's no liquor tax.
Even at industrial scale denatured ethanol is close to $2/gallon. IPA is around 90¢.
And denatured ethanol carries no liquor tax!
Here's a guess. Outfits making the simple, non-aged, unblended liquor may have been using the pure ethanol to make hand sanitizer. Several distilleries around the country were doing that.
So, that excess supply got used up.
Since the commercial hand sanitizer market has recovered, Everclear might too!

[EllieBC]

42. We bought a deep freeze.

In April. It’s a smaller one because we have a small condo and it is set up on our balcony. As soon as we started having outbreaks at chicken and beef packing plants up here I started filling it.

[Hugin]

51. +1 n/t

[uponit7771]

57. +1,

[RobinA]

68. Gather Supplies Again?

The stuff I want to gather I haven’t seen since February. Lysol wipes? Lysol spray? Forget it. We can’t have another wave until we can rehoard.

[eleny]

69. Grease cutters render the virus useless

So we spray all our grocery packaging with a spray bottle of Dawn and water. Then rinse.
We also wash our hands a lot with regular soap and water. So we've eliminated the need for using our precious anti-viral wipes and still kill off any virus that's on packaging and mail.

We also purchased several pairs of kitchen gloves which seem to be in abundant supply. So the few disposable gloves we have on hand can be preserved.

Isopropyl alcohol is pricey but available online.

I can only say that we aren't taking this lightly and beating the bushes everywhere so that we have enough of what we need and no more than that. No hoarding here. It's worked out so far.

[eleny]

71. Btw, you reminded me to check around for hydrogen peroxide

So I looked to see if they had any in stock at my Walgreen since our King Soopers is out of stock. They had a decent supply of 32 oz bottles for $1.19, the regular price. They're selling one per customer. So I ordered one and husband and I just picked it up curbside along with something else he needed.

This is what it takes, I guess. Just looking and getting things as they become available. Thanks to Trump's foot dragging it's a pita. But we were running very low on our current bottle and now we have one when we run out very soon.

[Ms. Toad]

12. I'd be be surprised if it is that late. n/t

[albacore]

15. Of course it will spike. Murikans aren't gonna miss their vacations...

Just look at the pictures from the beaches and the pool parties.
And President Dumbfuck is gonna have rallies.

[kairos12]

17. It's already a complete meltdown

here in AZ.

In 2-3 weeks there will be no hospital beds.

[roamer65]

21. Wait. I thought it was gonna go away in the summer.

FUCK YOU TRUMP.

[CanonRay]

19. Just in time for Jacksonville GOP 2020

[dixiegrrrrl]

34. It's been decided on Jacksonville???

Not surprised it is Fla. but really expected trump to fight more for one of his locations,.

Oh...wait....what facility in Jacksonville, I wonder.

[IronLionZion]

20. The US first wave hasn't ended

Early cities with outbreaks have seen drops but it's still increasing in rural America. The protests last week didn't help, as many national guard and police have tested positive, probably some protesters too.

[roamer65]

22. The 1918 pandemic had a distinct summer lull.

Imagine what October and November are going to be like this year.

[IronLionZion]

24. Kids back in school will be a hot mess

Everything will be open. Sports games, churches, large indoor events. MAGA rallies. Election day long lines

[roamer65]

31. ...and I'll be right at home.

I don’t like the idea of turning my lungs to viral soup.

[uponit7771]

58. THIS !!!! We are no down homeschooling this year

[Chemisse]

49. That was influenza though, which has distinct seasonality.

We don't know yet if Covid-19 will exhibit seasonality, and even if it does it may not be very evident this summer.

Even seasonal infections can happen “out of season” when they are new.
New viruses have a temporary but important advantage – few or no individuals in the population are immune to them.

https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

[Squidly]

70. Hardly anyone was wearing masks today here in Iowa

Made a short grocery run and I only saw 3 other people besides myself with a mask. People were ignoring the 6' markers on the floor at checkout, cashiers were maskless, its like no one gave a chit.

[Midnight Writer]

23. Republicans are saying Full Steam Ahead. I think that is the new GOP policy.

[yaesu]

25. the bottom line is you have all 50 states doing there own thing with no national cohesion

which means we are all up shit creek without a paddle. Now, other countries doing it right will ban US travel, to and from, some may allow 2 week self quarantine. That will be the least of our worries, economic collapse as numbers continue to spike, jobs not coming back, no more stimulus so no one shopping, add to that paying china back for the 6 to 8 trillion we borrowed to prop up wall street. And I haven't even hit on the really bad shit happening in the winter months.

[SunSeeker]

28. American carnage. nt

[Cha]

35. Because an American Psycho is squatting in the WH

[SunSeeker]

39. Yup. nt

[Cha]

40. BLOTUS Got Smote..

Link to tweet

[SunSeeker]

41. I wish. But Nov. 3 is coming. nt

[BamaRefugee]

30. Most people are focusing on deaths, but it seems like lots of survivors are really struggling

And still unknown what kind of long range things may occur in people who survived.

Also, just went to my doctor to get my monthly “stay at home” order from him, he said he and colleagues fear most that the virus will mutate into possibly more and different strains by fall. He thinks fall in US will be bad.

That’s the view from here in Los Angeles.

[Kaleva]

43. Just in case, I'm continuing my COVID-19 routine

I limit going out and about.

I wear a mask when at stores, gas stations and such.

I use hand sanitizer when out and about.

I wash my hands as per recommendations when at home or when using a public bathroom.

I disinfect high touch items in the home daily.

I sanitize kitchen and bathroom counters and sinks daily and disinfect them every few days.

I replace the bathroom hand towels, dish towels, dish cloths with fresh ones daily.

I wash and dry hand towels, dish towels, dish cloths, socks, underwear, wash clothes, towels, and cleaning rags using the sanitize cycle on both the washer and dryer.

I disinfect and clean the washer using the clean cycle and bleach once a month.

[Tipperary]

44. You could not catch me near a public restroom.

[Hugin]

52. This should seriously be a pinned OP...

I'm glad to hear someone else is keeping up with the COVID routine.

[Kaleva]

79. If there's a 2nd wave, I figure it'd be best to the routine ingrained as habits by then.

[Maxheader]

48. I was hoping the heat would stop the spread..

Stay safe, stay distance..

[KewlKat]

50. We're taking inventory this weekend, making a list, checking it thrice and preparing for the next

wave. I did manage to get a small chest freezer last month and have looked for meat bargains and will now just begin filling it up.

Ground beef prices have spiked here is now 8.99 a lb...says due to availability and processing. Won't being buying any of that unless the price drops to normal. So, we'll be buying chicken and seafoods. Paper products are just now appearing on shelves so we'll buy small amounts over the next few weeks.

I won't be caught again.

Don't forget with the coming fall also comes normal flu, colds, etc, so pickup some cough syrups, throat lozenges, aspirin, etc.

Good look shopping.

[Hugin]

53. Hopefully, if we're all doing it correctly this will be one of the lowest seasonal cold/flu seasons

on record.

But, I'm being optimistic again. Shame on me!

[Tanuki]

60. That is exactly what happened in Japan earlier this year.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Health-Care/Common-flu-patients-in-Japan-fall-to-10-year-low-late-January

"Japan saw the lowest number of flu patients late-January in roughly 10 years, in part due to preventive measures against the Wuhan coronavirus that has spread throughout the world, authorities said.

The National Institute of Infectious Diseases said that 18 patients per clinic tested positive for common influenza at around 5,000 hospitals and clinics in Japan between Jan. 20 and Jan. 26. This was the lowest number since 6.46 were recorded in a week in 2010.

"The ministry started disclosing the coronavirus outbreak in China since the start of the year and telling people to take preventive measures, including washing hands and wearing surgical masks," said an official at the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. "[The decline in the number of influenza patients] may be a reflection that personal hygiene has increased."...(more)

[Hugin]

61. Even more proof the measures work!

Wonderful!

Thanks for sharing that fact, Tanuki!

[BComplex]

65. It's already hitting the southern USA. Companies that have been hit are telling employees

not to post or tell anyone about it.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

67. It ain't happenin' where I'm at.

Pickin' my teeth with a toothpick and ignorin' places like Arizona.

Yup.

[bdamomma]

74. There is

no vaccine for this virus until next Spring. And if we have another wave of this virus in the next 2 months and this regime is not doing shit about it, it could take trump down. He can't bully it like he does to everyone else, so he avoids talking about it.

[Chemisse]

77. Maybe they are using the CHIME Model. If so, it's not supposed to accurate at this point.

It only works early in the pandemic, not once the peak has been reached.

https://www.wfae.org/post/mecklenburg-projects-surge-covid-model-creator-says-not-appropriate-use-model-now#stream/0