Trump's stock on PredictIt.org

[William Seger]

Except for a little bobble at the beginning of the pandemic, Trump's re-election stock on PredictIt.org has been hovering around $0.50 for a long time. This month, it's taken a turn for the worse:



I could sell now for a profit, but my recommendation is that it's not too late to buy. (Edit to clarify: I bought "No" or course!)

(If you aren't familiar with PredictIt.org, it's a "market" where you can buy either "Yes" or "No" shares on various political propositions, e.g. Trump being re-elected, for a price ranging from $0.01 to $0.99 each. Until the proposition question is resolved, shares are bought and sold like stocks with a bid/ask system. When the question is resolved, the correct shares are redeemed for $1 and incorrect shares are worthless.)

[OAITW r.2.0]

1. So, if I invested 5000 shares at .58 (interpolating from your posted graph)

on Biden winning, I'd make back my original $2600 plus $2100 on the final payout, assuming I make that bet and he wins?

Very, very tempting....

[William Seger]

2. They have a $800 limit per prop

And there is a fee collected from your winnings, and another fee to withdraw cash from your account. I think it amounts to about 6% of your winnings.

[Cicada]

3. Still awfully close

[William Seger]

4. Numerically, maybe, but it's hard to see how Trump gets enough support to win

I believe he will lose because he has successfully divided the country beyond repair, but ended up with the smaller half.

[judeling]

5. Take some profits

And look for value in other races.

If there are some Senate seats or even a control question.