The Virus Will Win

[Celerity]

Americans are pretending that the pandemic is over. It certainly is not.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/virus-will-win/612946/



A second wave of the coronavirus is on the way. When it arrives, we will lack the will to deal with it. Despite all the sacrifices of the past months, the virus is likely to win—or perhaps it would be more accurate to say that it already has. In absolute terms, the United States has been hit harder than any other country. About a quarter of worldwide deaths have been recorded on these shores. And while the virus is no longer growing at an exponential rate, the threat it poses remains significant: According to a forecasting model by Morgan Stanley, the number of American cases will, if current trends hold, roughly double over the next two months. But neither the impact of mass protests over police brutality nor the effect of the recent reopening of much of the country—including the casinos in Las Vegas—is reflected in the latest numbers. It can take at least 10 days for people to develop symptoms and seek out a test, and for the results to be aggregated and disseminated by public-health authorities. Even so, the disease is slowly starting to recede from the public’s attention. After months of dominating media coverage, COVID-19 has largely disappeared from the front pages of most national newspapers. In recent polls, the number of people who favor “reopening the economy as soon as possible” over “staying home as long as necessary” has increased.

And so it is perhaps no surprise that even states where the number of new infections stands at an all-time high are pressing ahead with plans to lift many restrictions on businesses and mass gatherings. When the first wave of COVID-19 was threatening to overwhelm the medical system, back in March, the public’s fear and uncertainty were far more intense than they are now. So was the reason to hope that some magic bullet might rescue us from the worst ravages of the disease. At this point, such hopes look unrealistic. After months of intense research, an effective treatment for COVID-19 still does not exist. A vaccine is, even if we get lucky, many months away from deployment. Because the virus is spreading especially rapidly in parts of the Southern Hemisphere, from Latin America to Africa, heat is clearly no impediment to its dissemination. Perhaps most important, it is now difficult to imagine that anybody could muster the political will to impose a full-scale lockdown for a second time. As one poll in Pennsylvania found, nearly nine out of 10 Republicans trusted “the information you hear about coronavirus from medical experts” back in April. Now just about one in three does. With public opinion more polarized than it was a few months ago, and the presidential election looming, any attempt to deal with a resurgence of the virus is likely to be even more haphazard, contentious, and ineffective than it was the first time around.

In the fullness of time, many books will be written about why a country as rich, powerful, and scientifically advanced as the United States failed quite so badly at coping with a public-health emergency that experts had predicted for many years. As is always the case, competing explanations will quickly emerge. Some will focus on the incompetence of the Trump administration, while others will draw attention to the country’s loss of state capacity; some will argue that the United States is an outlier, while others will put its failure in the context of other countries, such as Brazil and Russia, that are also faring poorly. I do not intend to offer a first draft of history. We are too close to the events to judge, with a cool head, which factors are most responsible for putting us in our current tragic situation. But I would like to offer a partial list of individuals and institutions who, however central or peripheral their contribution to the ultimate outcome, have helped to get us into this mess: If the virus wins, it is because the World Health Organization downplayed the threat for far too long. If the virus wins, it is because Donald Trump was more interested in hushing up bad news that might hurt the economy than in saving American lives. If the virus wins, it is because the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, created to deal with just this kind of emergency, has proved to be too bureaucratic and incompetent to do its job. If the virus wins, it is because the White House did not even attempt to put a test-and-trace regime into place at the federal level.

Although we do not yet know the effect of more recent events on the course of the pandemic, or what exactly will happen in the coming weeks and months, the list of culprits will likely be even longer than that. If the virus wins, it may also be because Derek Chauvin kept his knee on George Floyd’s neck for eight minutes and 46 seconds as Floyd was pleading for his life, setting off protests that—as righteous as they are—could well result in mass infections. If the virus wins, it may also be because 1,200 public-health experts obfuscated the mortal risk that these mass protests would pose to the most vulnerable among us by declaring not only (as would be reasonable) that they supported them as citizens, but also (which is highly implausible) that they had determined, as scientists, that they would actively serve “the national public health.” If the virus wins, it may also be because so many states moved to reopen before getting the pace of infections under control. If the virus wins, it may also be because the right-wing-media echo chamber is starting to downplay the risk that a second wave poses to Americans. If the virus does win, then, it is because American elites, experts, and institutions have fallen short—and continue to fall short—of the grave responsibility with which they are entrusted in ways too innumerable to list.

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[smirkymonkey]

1. K&R

I do not plan on changing my behavior, which is very cautious. I may have to go back to work in July part time in the office but we will be staggered - only certain people in on certain days and then wfh on other days. Other than that, I plan to lay pretty low through the fall with minor social contact. I plan to isolate as much as possible and use PPE if I have to go out.

I don't trust government instructions. I know that they are primarily concerned with the economy and my only contribution will be groceries and basic household goods. I will not be shopping, going to clubs, bars, restaurants (except for takeout or maybe the occasional outdoor meal), concerts or other events that involve large crowds.

I would rather not live that way, but I am very concerned that things are going to get much worse. Where I live things are very bad and although they are getting better, they are still worse than the rest of the country.

[hunter]

2. All those people who go out on the beach before the worst of the Tsunami arrives...

[central scrutinizer]

3. Until there's a vaccine

I’m not going to a restaurant, movie, concert, any large gathering. Always wear a mask in a store, practice good hand hygiene, etc. This is my new normal.

[Blue_true]

4. Depending on what historical reference a person uses,

SARS-COV-2 just became the second or third deadliest virus in USA history based upon the number of people that it killed. Either the 1957 H2N2 Flu (if the highest death toll is used for that Pandemic) and the 1918 H1N1 Flu (over 600,000 dead in the USA, was very hard on 20-40 year olds) stand ahead of SAR-COV-2 as a numerical killer in the USA.

There were viruses that killed a higher percentage of infected and one killed almost 10% of early New York City, but SARS-COV-2 has reached another regrettable milestone when it passed 116,000 killed in the USA.

[dalton99a]

5. "Nature cannot be fooled."

[Blue_true]

6. The virus faring well in hot places should scare the crap out of people.

What was or still is the second deadliest virus by number of dead was the H2N2 Virus of 1957-1959. The unique thing about that virus, and something some believe it shares with the H1N1 Virus of 1918-1920, is that it underwent a shift in the type of proteins that it produced, making it far deadlier on the second time around. Human being bodies could not neutralize the new proteins the virus developed. If SAR-COV-2 mutates into something deadlier, we could be looking at 1918 Flu death numbers.

[roamer65]

7. If we don't find a monoclonal antibody therapy or vaccine...

my gut tells me at least 1,000,000 dead from the virus.