The Latest Swing State Polls Look Good For Biden
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Poll(s) of the week
Hard as it may be to believe, Election Day is now less than five months away. And at this point, former Vice President Joe Biden has a clear lead over President Trump in the national polls. But recent state-level surveys also give Biden an edge over Trump in a number of key swing states. And of course, how Trump and Biden do at the state level matters the most, as that’s how the outcome in the Electoral College will be decided.
With that in mind, we thought it would be helpful to update where things stand in state-level polls of the presidential contest, like we did at the beginning of May. To do this, we gathered all the state polls in FiveThirtyEight’s polling database conducted since May 1 and then averaged them. And right now, the state polls largely agree with what the national surveys show: Biden holds the lead. In fact, he has about a 2-to-8-point lead in some of the most important states in the Electoral College. There is one notable caveat, though, which we’ll get to in a moment. (Additionally, what’s captured here might not reflect how things have changed after an unexpectedly positive job report, or how public opinion might have shifted in response to the national protests that followed George Floyd’s death.)
But first, let’s start with what the polls say in battleground states where we have at least three polls in the past six weeks. Together, they mostly present good news for Biden, and perhaps the most notable takeaway here is Biden’s sizable lead in Michigan and Wisconsin.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-latest-swing-state-polls-look-good-for-biden/
