From Daily KOS in May: Holy crap, Trump is on track to lose Georgia

[Quixote1818]

kos for Daily Kos
Daily Kos Staff
Tuesday May 19, 2020 · 10:00 AM MDT

I’ve been saying that there are seven presidential battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Six of the seven are obvious and long-standing battlegrounds. But … Georgia? Yes. Georgia.

The latest numbers are courtesy of Civiqs for Daily Kos:

ALL URBAN SUBURBAN RURAL
TRUMP 47 31 43 67
BIDEN 48 63 52 27

Can you believe that impeached president Donald Trump won Georgia suburbs in 2016? The reason presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is winning in 2020 and Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 is the suburbs.

According to the 2016 exit polls, Trump won rural Georgia 67-29, which is virtually identical to what this poll found. Clinton won urban Georgia 68-29, again within rough range of Civiqs’ findings. But those suburban numbers! That’s the new ball game, going from Trump 51-46 in 2016 to 52-43 Biden in this poll—a 14-point swing.

It was massive shifts in the suburbs that delivered the House to Nancy Pelosi in 2018. It was that shift that delivered the Virginia legislature, and governors in red Louisiana and Kentucky in 2019. And it’s those suburbs that have made Georgia so competitive in 2020.

More: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/19/1946035/-Biden-is-beating-Trump-in-Georgia

[edhopper]

1. Not while Kemp

is Governor.

[JDC]

5. I thought the same thing.

[RDANGELO]

2. Looks like Trump may be having problems with any states that have large suburbs.

[Thirties Child]

3. I'm in a retirement home in DeKalb County, within walking distance of the City of Atlanta.

The people in this home -- some 160 of us -- are 75% Democratic and going to vote for Biden. The home is owned by Emory and is just down the road from Emory and the CDC. I lived within walking distance for 36 years and expected to find a nest of Democrants -- I haven't been disappointed. We have some youngsters in their 70s, but most of us are in our 80s and 90s. Old and Democratic and going to vote. And going to vote for Biden!!!

[Hoyt]

6. Grew up near there. Great area. Take care.

[Thirties Child]

9. We lived in Morningside, Atlanta DeKalb, for 36 years.

We retired to a small town in the southwest corner of New Mexico for ten years, came back in 2012 for medical reasons. When I moved into Wesley Woods I felt like I'd come home. Did you also go to Grady? Or Druid Hills? My kids graduated from Grady in 1976, 1978, 1980. And one dropped out in 1983.

[Hoyt]

11. My dad went to Grady, it was called Boys High in the 30s. He also lived in Morningside.

That's a great neighborhood.

We moved further out before I started high school. The Wesley Woods area is so nice.

[Hoyt]

4. I'm hoping. In 2018, Lucy McBath won suburbs that had gone for Gingrich, and

Tom Price. But there are a lot of rubes in Georgia. Still hoping.

[LupusYonderboy00]

7. It's the

Stacy Abrams effect... lots of people think she’s the VEEP shoe-in.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. It would probably require a national margin of Biden +6 to drag Georgia along

Not impossible but not likely. Too many self-identified conservatives in that state

[Quixote1818]

10. Not sure about that. Hillary lost GA by 5 pts and the state has shifted a bit more blue since then

So we probably only need to convince 2% to 3% of the state to switch and that would be enough.