Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020

[brooklynite]

UVA Center for Politics

With less than five months left in the 2020 election campaign, former Vice President Joseph Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump in both national and swing state polling. In the past few weeks, Biden has widened his lead in the RealClearPolitics national poll average from less than six points to about eight points.

Of course, astute poll watchers will recall that four years ago, Hillary Clinton also led Donald Trump in most national and swing state polls. In the end, though, Trump won the election by narrowly defeating Clinton in several key swing states. So how does Biden’s current situation compare with Clinton’s in 2016?

A close analysis of national polling in 2016 and 2020 based on data compiled by RealClearPolitics indicates that Biden’s lead over Trump has been only slightly larger than Clinton’s lead over Trump between January and early June. However, Biden’s lead has been much more consistent. The data for both years are summarized in Tables 1 and 2. Table 1 shows the aggregate data for Clinton vs. Trump both through mid-June of 2016 and also for the entire election year, as well as Biden vs. Trump for 2020 so far; Table 2 shows the monthly average Democratic lead for the 2016 election year as well as 2020 so far.

[SoonerPride]

1. That is is even close just depresses the fuck out of me.

We have a moron, racist, lazy, grifting, treasonous, con man who has managed through incompetence, greed, and hubris to kill 120,000 Americans, destroy the economy driving it past recession into a looming depression, fomenting racial unrest, and it is still a question?

Too many Americans are too fucking evil and stupid.

If I had the means I would abandon this country.

It is a goddamned wasteland.

[BamaRefugee]

3. I've felt that way since I destroyed a TV back in '68 while Nixon was on, threw a cowboy boot at the

screen and smashed it.
Lived without a TV for quite while after that, I was a starving college student, couldn't afford one!

[BamaRefugee]

2. I posted an in-depth graph of the 2016 election yesterday. Yes, Biden's lead is more consistent BUT

Putin has had FOUR UNINTERRUPTED YEARS to master the techniques to be used in throwing the election to trump.

At this time in 2016 we had no inkling of what was to come: "grab em by the pussy", Comey, Wikileaks, HER COUGH, etc etc etc.

I predict that those things will look like nap time in a kindergarten compared to what's going to be unleashed.
I fervently hope that Biden has an unbelievable team of the smartest people on the planet in place to fight the battle tooth and nail, and prevail.