General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsAnyone else getting the feeling COViD-19 is on the verge of defeat or at least becoming more minor?
With the pharmaceutical breakthroughs such as Redesmivir and Methylprdnisone, widespread mask use, along with the vaccine trials showing more promise earlier than thought possible, it's looking more and more like we've seen the worst of this pandemic isn't it? Not so much in terms of spread. Also not in terms of the gross federal government catastrophic misnagement obviously. The infection rate is still spiking and skyrocketing and the US pandemic is far more widespread and serious than it needed to be but perhaps the severity and duration of most infections will now be dramatically less while we wait for the vaccines to be finalized. What do you think? Too optimistic?
It does seem to be clearly under siege by the medical and scientific community at the moment.
Nevilledog
(50,989 posts)Alex4Martinez
(2,192 posts)And I'm not a stupid man.
I agree with you, the patterns are disturbing and history tells us how these things go.
TristanIsolde
(272 posts)PSPS
(13,577 posts)live love laugh
(13,074 posts)lunatica
(53,410 posts)Music Man
(1,184 posts)Sorry to say that I feel we've only just begun. I'm glad for medical breakthroughs, but people's idiocy and the lack of a real president is making me think we still have many more lives and livelihoods to lose.
Lisa0825
(14,487 posts)so, no, not yet.
NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)Dexamethasone and Redesmvir early on as standard-of-care treatment? I'm not pushing my hypothesis btw. Just spitballing. I don't have a vested interest in being right.
Nevilledog
(50,989 posts)If it's bad enough to be hospitalized, it's already bad.
If there are studies or plans to use these medications without hospitalization, I'd love to read them.
I've also seen reports that say mutations may be making it more infectious.
stopdiggin
(11,241 posts)effectiveness and results. The hullabaloo over either is WAY overstated
The OP post is also way, WAY off the mark.
Says they are spitballing .. but it's bordering on misleading.
Nevilledog
(50,989 posts)And that's it. They're not prophylactic and not for mild cases. And who knows what permanent damage the survivors will suffer.
stopdiggin
(11,241 posts)(as we've been told time and time again) you're in real frigging trouble. And .. many that survive (this or even earlier stages) have very lengthy illnesses, followed by really serious continuing health problems and consequences.
So .. long, long way from any kind of breakthrough or magic bullet.
Nevilledog
(50,989 posts)brush
(53,737 posts)Last edited Thu Jun 18, 2020, 12:28 AM - Edit history (2)
Fla Dem
(23,578 posts)And even then its only about 30% effective.
This is not a cure all.
Nothing has dramatically changed to improve the situation except people are more cautious for the most part and many venues where large numbers of people would interact have been closed, like stadiums, theaters, malls, schools, colleges,offices, etc. Obviously, as we have seen in the past week, as people seem to think the worse is over and go back to pre March routines, the # of cases have increased.
Horse with no Name
(33,956 posts)The drain and then it is not a savior. It will help
Some.
Its not a drug that will be given as a prophylactic.
Igel
(35,270 posts)Remdesivir can help shorten the worst of the symptoms, but it's unclear if it has much effect on the average case. Or if it needs to.
Dexamethasone is good for helping alleviating breathing problems, but it tinkers around the edges with the fatality rates. And most people with COVID don't have asthma-like breathing difficulties, so using it just because is like putting bandages on bruises and splints on cuts.
uponit7771
(90,301 posts)msongs
(67,347 posts)BamaRefugee
(3,483 posts)ballgame, worse than what's happened so far."
And I just read this, dated today:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/06/mutation-may-be-helping-coronavirus-spread-more-readily/
He also said that everyone focusing on death counts is missing a huge point: Many survivors of COVID are really f*ucked up, some for life, in very serious ways, and there could be more ways that haven't reveled themselves yet. Survivng doesn't mean you go skipping and whistling out the hospital doors, sadly.
NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)Killer Orca wrote:
But my Trump-loving coworkers told me the virus could only mutate to be less effective?
/s
Oh, well.
My mother told me the same.
I told her that as things stand, a less deadly virus that spreads more easily has the same potential to harm us as a much deadlier virus that spreads slower.
We choose even when we do nothing at all.
live love laugh
(13,074 posts)as someone I know is hospitalized after two months still. Too many complications to list.
PSPS
(13,577 posts)pnwest
(3,266 posts)its out of control in the early-opening states right now.
Lithos
(26,403 posts)Texas and Florida are now just starting to get it - seeing record numbers. The denial here is that we did not feel it when New York did, so people thought they escaped it by some non-existent virtue.
I'm still working from home apparently until Aug 15th, but maybe longer as that is when the second wave hits. Donnie boy sucked so hard that the first and second waves may be indistinguishable.
L-
John Fante
(3,479 posts)would indicate, and it's only going to get worse.
Falsely attributing coronavirus deaths to pneumonia (what they've been doing) can only get you so far.
Lithos
(26,403 posts)There is a deliberate misclassification effort coming top-down. Evidence suggests comorbid deaths associated with COVID (pneumonia, etc.) are above normal. They are basically sacrificing and burying the significance of the old and the disenfranchised.
Mariana
(14,854 posts)Do you have any evidence to support this idea?
NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)Major breakthrough. Not good news for SARS-COV-2
PSPS
(13,577 posts)Among patients with Covid-19 who did not require respiratory support, there was no benefit from treatment with dexamethasone.
So, yes, it does seem that it might be useful but certainly not a massive game changer. And, the way things go these days, it could be just another pump 'n dump veiled ad piece to make money in the stock market.
MoonlitKnight
(1,584 posts)Vs something like 2 of 14 placebo.
uponit7771
(90,301 posts)Thank you so much for this !!
I'm thinking I'm living on another planet and have seen 3 of these P&Ds MINIMUM for CV19 drugs
unc70
(6,109 posts)That improvement in survival will be swamped by infection rates going up dramatically.
stopdiggin
(11,241 posts)Among patients with Covid-19 who did not require respiratory support, there was no benefit from treatment with dexamethasone.
Well .. that really has the virus back on it's heels! "No need to worry now, boys!"
Sheesh!
----- -----
Frustratedlady
(16,254 posts)Sorry to be a downer, but this monster is nasty and will stay a couple steps ahead of the scientific community. I hope you are right and I am dead wrong (no pun intended) but about the time you think things are settling down, they explode.
I also fear the long-term effects of this virus won't be known for a long time.
JT45242
(2,239 posts)Hospitalizations are going up. Positive test rates are going up. Deaths are going up.
Trumpers are proud to not wear masks. The few times I have gone out, I have been terrified how few people are wearing masks and I live in a city where 40 percent of adults have at least a master's degree.
There has NEVER, let me repeat, NEVER been a successful vaccine for any corona virus that has given permanent immunity.
Nope it is going to get cataclysmically worse before it gets better.
NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)Seems like a vicious near k/o to the virus. Major breakthrough. Scientists hailing the news.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)The results suggest that one death would be prevented by treatment with dexamethasone among every eight ventilated Covid-19 patients, Landray said, and one death would be prevented among every 25 Covid-19 patients that received the drug and are on oxygen.
Among patients with Covid-19 who did not require respiratory support, there was no benefit from treatment with dexamethasone.
This is hype on a business channel, trying to pump up the stock market and possibly specific pharmaceutical manufacturers.
Pretending that we have a miracle cure is only helping Trump's hideously destructive agenda to kill Americans by the hundreds of thousands.
Historic NY
(37,449 posts)qazplm135
(7,447 posts)right now.
Gothmog
(144,905 posts)Houston had another record day of new cases. This virus has not gone away and is not under control
bamagal62
(3,244 posts)Yeehah
(4,568 posts)Leghorn21
(13,522 posts)Today: Record cases, record positivity %, record ER, record hospitalizations, record ICU.
Link to tweet
not just yet...
Also, person after person posting here or on twitter or wherever says how appalled they are to see, for instance, 70% of the people at a grocery not wearing masks...50%, 90% - a ton of people are simply refusing to wear them
Dont get me wrong, though, I do hope youre right, you know??
Nevilledog
(50,989 posts)I saw one other customer wearing a mask today on visits to Walgreen and Safeway.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)There's no rational reason not to require them.
stopbush
(24,392 posts)sick."
StarryNite
(9,434 posts)pro life.
stopbush
(24,392 posts)cos dem
(902 posts)Some drugs show some reason for optimism, but they are not yet fully tested, they are far from 100% effective, and they can often only be effective in certain circumstances. For example, the steroid appears to only help you if you're on a vent or O2. That's great, since those patients are at most risk of dying. But, you can still be horribly sick for weeks. I know three people who took over a month to recover.
Widespread mask use is also not happening. It may be in some areas, but here in CO I've noticed a definite decrease in mask usage at the grocery store (about my only outing). It was close to 75% at one point, but now it's down to 25% or less. Fortunately, most of the workers seem to be complying. Not so much the customers, even though the state gives stores the option of banning non-mask wearers. I'm sure most stores won't dare chase away customers.
Colorado is doing OK, but I feel like we're teetering on the edge. If we would shape up, we could beat it, but we could also fall into the Texas trap, with sit-down restaurants opening, mask compliance way down, and neighboring states going downhill (TX, OK, AZ).
So, no, I'm not optimistic at all. I knew Americans were collectively selfish and stupid, and this virus has demonstrated just how selfish and stupid we are.
stopdiggin
(11,241 posts)everybody else (government, finance, civic and religious leaders, employers, workplace and workforce, general population) are getting Cs and Ds. Certainly no better than expected, and in a lot of instances worse.
But then, your right .. there is certainly a crushing lack of leadership and direction.
unc70
(6,109 posts)Lots of top researchers around here. (Remdesivir is a joint development of Gilead and UNC.) Don't hear that level of optimism among the people I know. Yes, the drugs mentioned make improvements, but not game changing. Even the most promising vaccines are still a ways off.
Initech
(100,031 posts)And we're not getting out of this while Orange Douche and his goons are in charge. We need a real leader to lead us out of this mess, and that's not happening until after the election.
Archetypist
(218 posts)this will be with us into 2021
BigmanPigman
(51,565 posts)and has more thingies that make it easy to stick to other cells...NOT GOOD!
Igel
(35,270 posts)Given what they saw, what would the consequences be in vivo. Not even tested in vitro. Just in computer.
This virus has mutated to be more dangerous so many times that it's surprised any cats, much less people, are still alive. Yet each death-dealing mutation leaves no obvious confirmable trace in the actual spread or severity of the disease.
Two things.
The first is that it's amazing that no mutations have lessened its severity. Odds are any given mutation would do that.
The second is that at some point there's a decent chance one of the doomsayers will be right. That might be this afternoon, it might be in the year 23,395 (new style).
BigmanPigman
(51,565 posts)we know next to nothing about this disease.
TeamPooka
(24,204 posts)marybourg
(12,584 posts)Were overrun by trumpanzees. They dont need no damn mask.
RhodeIslandOne
(5,042 posts)We need to keep up the masks, hand washing and social distancing.
We can even open up a few things as long as people follow these guidelines.
jcgoldie
(11,610 posts)Nor do I think feelings have anything to do with it.
Skittles
(153,111 posts)JarOCats
(119 posts)...and make sure to include an option for "Are you fucking kidding me?"
Best response on this thread.
Igel
(35,270 posts)Viruses are very sensitive. A well-phrased poll showing it lacks support and it'll be shamed into infecting only cockroaches and fire ants..
fierywoman
(7,668 posts)numbers are way worse than reported because cases are often not being counted, and the red states are undercounting and under reporting.
wendyb-NC
(3,300 posts)Don't let your guard down.
stopbush
(24,392 posts)And, no, I don't think we've seen the worst. I think we opened up too quickly and that things are going to stay at a high level right up til the fall when the second wave hits.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)That could cut either way politically. People more angry and eager to get rid of the monster in the White House. But too afraid to go out and vote, and if Turd has destroyed the USPS and blocked states from mail in voting... not good.
Ms. Toad
(33,992 posts)We're holding relatively steady just below the peak cases from the first wave.
stopbush
(24,392 posts)Ill go with their call.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Goes up, levels off a little, goes up again when we open stuff - never does the "trough" portion of the wave, only a series of flat parts and then increases. We may be the first nation in history to find a way to extend a pandemic forever (until we're dead).
Totally Tunsie
(10,885 posts)to re-stock in preparation for a second wave. They had TP - not a lot, though, and are still sparse on quite a few staples. It wouldn't surprise me to see another round of shutdowns as the numbers climb again. I think we've just had the dress rehearsal for the main event yet to come.
budkin
(6,698 posts)Really??
unblock
(52,115 posts)For something that's cheap and widely available already, that's great news.
But reducing the death rate by 25% is hardly turning this pandemic into anything minor and a far cry from defeating it altogether.
Ms. Toad
(33,992 posts)In ventilated patients (a small percentage of all COVID patients - in one study 27% of patients in intensive care), it my reduce it by 12.5%. In patients on oxygen (a small percentage of all COVID - 11% in one study), it may reduce it another 4%. It doesn't reduce it at all in other COVID 19 patients.
So - assuming only COVID 19 patients who wind up in intensive care die, the maximum it could reduce death is by 3.3%.
unblock
(52,115 posts)which had much higher numbers. I'll trust yours as I know you've been on top of such things.
There's certainly a lot of "rush to the press" these days.
Anyway, your numbers make the point even stronger. It's a nice result, and if something cheap and easy and available helps, that's great. But it's a small improvement in protocol and results, not a major change in the overall course or status of the pandemic.
Quixote1818
(28,918 posts)shortens things about 1/4 but many, many people are still going to be in really bad shape and high numbers of deaths will continue. I seriously doubt a vaccine will be coming soon too.
Eyeball_Kid
(7,429 posts)about 4 years. IF a vaccine is found.
Even if a vaccine were found at, say, the beginning of next year, it would still take a long time to apply the serum to a large swathe of he population. For instance, if seniors and the disabled were identified as demographic segments who need special consideration, the distributor may have to weigh life saving priorities. The higher the risk, the higher the priority for getting vaccinated. But we're talking tens of millions of doses, and that's just in this country. How many months would it take to reach everyone?
OhioChick
(23,218 posts)Let's just say.....we've only just begun.
They've both been using Remdesivir and Dexamethasone since this started and they're not "game changers."
NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)Thanks very much for that insight, OhioChick. Some real on-the-ground info is very helpful!
Skittles
(153,111 posts)Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)This has been incredibly simple from the outset. A classic case of big picture clarity overwhelming day to day irrelevancies. If there has been nothing comparable in a full century you always err toward the high side and not the low side.
Anyone erring low is playing the fool. That was true in March, true today, and will be true three months from now and six months from now.
Tragic pandemic but fantastic litmus test
A HERETIC I AM
(24,360 posts)elias7
(3,991 posts)SunSeeker
(51,508 posts)ansible
(1,718 posts)This makes no sense
stopdiggin
(11,241 posts)were (and still are) considered "essential."
Think about it .. some things just need to be done.
And, please .. no arguments about, "well, that's not really ..."
Those people that are out in the street obviously decided that it was.
--- -- -- ---
ansible
(1,718 posts)It's driving me insane, I don't know what to think anymore
stopdiggin
(11,241 posts)a lot of them don't really think they should wear a mask going to the doctor's office .. much less the drug store or grocery store. And I'm sure that doesn't make you feel any better .. but we've all got our crosses ..
I appreciate that that this thing (these times) has us all bugging out a little bit from time to time. Stay safe. And stay sane!
--- ---
ansible
(1,718 posts)Igel
(35,270 posts)Dentist was wearing no mask, but just poked for a quick double check. Dental hygienist scraped, sprayed, and polished for 20 minutes with just a surgical mask.
Doctor was endocrinologist, not GP. 20 seconds within 4 feet on the part of the assistant, for taking temperature, blood pressure; and another 20 seconds within 4 feet by the doctor, listening to breathing and feeling for thyroid. Everybody had on N95 masks, and the doctors wore face shields, as well.
I think one's clearly at more risk--more likely to be exposed to infected people, greater exposure and closer, riskier contact--and that group used much less protection.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)You need a new dentist; your current one is a dangerous idiot.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Voltaire2
(12,954 posts)Marrah_Goodman
(1,586 posts)uponit7771
(90,301 posts)obamanut2012
(26,045 posts)treestar
(82,383 posts)One can support a protestor's aims while at the same time realize they might be spreading coronavirus.
Voltaire2
(12,954 posts)I thought that was obvious.
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)Jamastiene
(38,187 posts)No, they are telling you wrong.
If anything, it has exploded in states that have reopened.
I'm in one of the states that reopened "cautiously" and it is outrageously spiking here. In my smaller rural home county, it sat on just 2 deaths and less than 50 total cases for over a month and a half. It looked like we might be on top of it, then the governor reopened the state. Since they reopened the state, "cautiously," it has jumped to 5 deaths and over 200 cases in just the last couple of weeks. It is exploding here, for such a small population area.
It's not going anywhere. In some areas, it is getting worse as far as spiking in the numbers of cases and at least in my area, in a very short time, over doubled the number of deaths. Even the ones who survive Covid-19 often times have permanent damage in their lungs and other organs. They are basically maimed for life. I don't like gambling with something like that.
I wish the idiots around me were more than what they think of as "cautious," because reopening has been a bad bad idea. I would rather they be my definition of "cautious" and wear the stupid mask over their nose and mouth instead of around their neck. Even Walmart workers in my hometown are wearing masks around their necks. That's not helping anyone. Why bother?
StarryNite
(9,434 posts)Unfortunately I think you are way too optimistic.
GeorgeGist
(25,311 posts)Hekate
(90,538 posts)Buckeye_Democrat
(14,852 posts)The Coronavirus love song:
tazkcmo
(7,300 posts)struggle4progress
(118,215 posts)Lucinda
(31,170 posts)FreepFryer
(7,077 posts)tblue37
(65,215 posts)scarytomcat
(1,706 posts)but cases are still rising
and reporting is sketchy
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)uponit7771
(90,301 posts)... anecdotal data confirms that.
MyNameGoesHere
(7,638 posts)Hope has no place here. The consensus is we are doomed and we should just give up. No hope allowed.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Dealing with it in a factual and scientific way is how we save humanity.
MyNameGoesHere
(7,638 posts)That's why I didn't say something that isn't true.
safeinOhio
(32,634 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)No.
hlthe2b
(102,112 posts)There is NO well trained/nonpolitical Public Health official or epidemiologist, no virologist, no well-trained physician intensivist, no well-read and up-to-date science writer/reporter, no non-insane leader of a western democracy nor non-authoritarian third world nation who agrees with you.
Absolutely fu--king NO!
Tipperary
(6,930 posts)dem4decades
(11,269 posts)DeminPennswoods
(15,265 posts)Last edited Wed Jun 17, 2020, 08:28 AM - Edit history (1)
tbh. Even in my Pennsylvania county, there are zip codes where there are still no infections at all.
Here is a link to the PADoH data page: https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/Cases.aspx Scroll down to the "Epicurve by region" chart. Clearly cases are declining even on the purple (top) line that represents SE Pa (Phila and suburban counties).
As of 6/16. 75% of all covid19 cases, the infected person has recovered. That number is up from around 60% just a week or so ago.
Also, keep in mind, that the cable news networks are invested in the pandemic/epidemic narrative in that wall-to-wall reporting on deaths and cases drives viewership which drives ad revenue. It's not very interesting to report on Ohio or Pennsylvania, two states that appear to have handled their outbreaks fairly well, or to show Cuomo's daily presser now that NYC cases/deaths are declining.
jmg257
(11,996 posts)Among patients with Covid-19 who did not require respiratory support, there was no benefit from treatment with dexamethasone.
you can treat eight patients and save {1} life
Brazil Reports Big Surge In Coronavirus Infections
Beijing coronavirus outbreak: travel restricted to tackle 'extremely severe' situation
Coronavirus Cases Spike Across Sun Belt as Economy Lurches into Motion
Arizona, Texas and Florida are reporting their highest case numbers yet. As of Saturday, corona virus cases were climbing in 22 states amid reopenings.
"If we stop testing right now, wed have very few cases, if any,
'In Florida, The largest number of cases are in 20 - 40 age group; not high mortality, more mobility'
One night in a Florida bar infects 16 customers and 7 employees with coronavirus
Montgomery rejects mandatory face masks; county has highest COVID count in state
panader0
(25,816 posts)bigtree
(85,974 posts)...and not an actual news org querying this.
hatrack
(59,574 posts)Next.
Blue_Adept
(6,393 posts)Because this is a case of "I'll have what you're smoking" in how full of the hilariously crazy it is.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Please stop it. We have enough problems with Turd and the Russiapublicans trying to pretend it's a hoax. We don't need to do that on our side too. America's COVID response is about to become a permanent stain on human history. Thanks to Pres. Turd's deliberately counter-productive response, COVID is just getting started. It's going to kill at least a million Americans, unless we can get rid of Turd quickly.
Aristus
(66,280 posts)The science says the rate of new cases of COVID-19 is still going up. But we're pretending that la-la, it's all over, yay! Come on out everybody! It's over! Oh yeah, and AIDS, too! Yippee!
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)We are so far from victory we can't see the finish line from here.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,391 posts)There's a false impression that it's on the ropes but the data seems to suggest otherwise. From what I understand, the aforementioned drugs are typically last-resort drugs or for people whom are critically ill, not general usage. Very few people are wearing masks and they're barely compulsory anywhere AFAIK. States with the least restrictions that are seeing spikes now. The states showing the most decline are the ones hit hardest and had to take the most drastic measures at the outset. We're more "under siege" than the virus is IMHO right now.
PCIntern
(25,471 posts)President Trump said it was. I stand corrected then, please disregard my, and the other 435,000 posts here over the last few months. I thank you in advance.
tavernier
(12,368 posts)Ms. Toad
(33,992 posts)123 Fantasy Lane
State of Delusion
Vaccines are still more than a year away, states in which most of the population have adopted your attitude are looking very much like New York did earlier - infection rate through the roof and running out of space in hospital beds. The US infection rate is still very close to what it was at the peak - even though New York (which previously counted for most of the cases) has an extremely low new case rate.
The new steroid announced yesterday has been tested a very brief time (does hydroxychloroquine ring a bell?), and even so only appears to be effected in two limited circumstances. Remdesmivir is similarly a very limited remedy - shaving off a few days from an illness that can last as long as two months - or more.
Oh, and we're also due for a spike from the protests in a week or so.
uponit7771
(90,301 posts)greenjar_01
(6,477 posts)ooky
(8,905 posts)treestar
(82,383 posts)is all that is happening.
mvd
(65,157 posts)things will look up. But while PA again just had a little over 300 new cases today, the virus is worse than ever in other states. I hope we have it contained enough in PA for the green phase to not hurt things. I also worry about it finding its way back here if other states dont control it.
DeminPennswoods
(15,265 posts)Link: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states
There are two big hot spot states right now, Ala and Ariz, followed by SC, then Fla, Tenn, LA, Ark, Oregon, NV, Okla, TX, then CA, DE, Wyo and Washington.