New Kentucky polls out, and I'd like to explain some things to non-Kentuckians about Amy McGrath.

[Music Man]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/503379-poll-booker-leads-mcgrath-by-8-points-in-kentucky-senate-primary

Civiqs has McGrath losing 53-33% to McConnell.

They have Charles Booker losing to McConnell only 52-38%. Not great, but certainly better, and Booker has more of an upside in my extremely humble opinion.

Finally, according to this poll, Booker is beating McGrath 44-36% in the primary.

Here's the deal: I like Amy McGrath. I respect her service as a Marine. Having talked to her once, I found her to be nice. Not terribly approachable or a natural campaigner, but nice. And we need more women's representation.

I'm certainly not speaking for all Kentuckians now, but most of the enthusiasm for McGrath is coming from out-of-state. Many folks have seen her fighter pilot ads, and I think there's a perception, "Man, Amy McGrath is a rising star down there in Kentucky."

But she's not. McGrath is a weak candidate. She has flip-flopped on issues like Brett Kavanaugh literally within hours. Many people just know she's a pilot but have no sense of her beliefs. She lost her House race in a district that includes left-leaning Lexington, and in a Democratic wave election year. Yes, McConnell is generally unpopular, but there's nothing more favorable about a statewide race versus KY-06.

So for many Kentuckians, we know that McGrath has already been painted as an extreme, ridiculous liberal despite her doing EVERYTHING she can to demonstrate otherwise, and we believe deep down that she doesn't have the political instincts to close a 20-point gap. Booker at least demonstrates some passion and authenticity, and as long as beating McConnell is a haul anyway, having someone who approximates progressivism or a fighter for working people is exciting.

I know when Bernie Sanders or AOC endorses Booker, it gets eye-rolls around here ("Ugh, there goes the only candidate that can beat McConnell".) But when the two major newspapers in the state and the former secretary of state endorse Booker, maybe it's time to consider why that may be the case.

If McGrath wins, more power to her, and I'll work my ass off to help her beat McConnell. As for me, I'll be voting for Charles Booker in the primary.

[honest.abe]

1. Data for Progress/Civiqs is not a reliable polling firm.

B- rating on 538. I would not base any decisions on numbers from them.

[Music Man]

4. That may be,

But there are lots of B/C rated polls posted here at DU, including NPR, PPP, Zogby, etc., whose threads should be dismissed.

Regardless, I am trying to convey the idea to people who don't live here that Amy McGrath is not the rock star taking Kentucky politics by force that some people think. She just isn't. If she is the nominee, we'll take all the support we can get, but in the meantime, many Kentuckians are excited to actually have a candidate in Charles Booker who believes in *something*.

[honest.abe]

8. I didnt say to dismiss it.

I just wouldn't make a decision to support someone based on a single poll from any firm.. much less a b/c rated one.

[Music Man]

11. Fair enough :)

Point taken. A person should not base all their decisions based on this one poll, let alone a B- rated poll.

I *do* think these polls are reflective of where Kentucky is, though. I see these numbers and think, "Yeah, that seems about right."

[honest.abe]

14. You are probably correct about the situation but I would like to wait and see more polling.

[liskddksil]

5. They were incredibly accurate in their last New Hampshire Primary poll nt

[honest.abe]

6. One accurate poll does make a good pollster.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[lagomorph777]

16. B/C - I'd call that worse than B-. It's an online survey, not a poll.

Meanwhile, here's what a real poll says:


https://www.newsweek.com/amy-mcgrath-takes-narrow-lead-over-mitch-mcconnell-kentucky-senate-race-poll-shows-1509691

Democratic senatorial candidate Amy McGrath appears to have a very narrow lead over Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky's race, according to a recent poll.

The polling, which was conducted by RMG Group, shows McGrath, a former Marine fighter pilot, with the support of 41 percent of voters, while McConnell is backed by 40 percent. However, the polling also showed that when voters are informed that McGrath supports congressional term limits while McConnell does not, her lead over the Republican jumps significantly.

With the candidates' positions on term limits factored in, McGrath was backed by 45 percent of respondents, while McConnell was supported by just 30 percent. But 17 percent of those surveyed were still undecided, and 8 percent said they'd vote for a different candidate.

[honest.abe]

19. Yes. I would like to see another poll before writing off Amy.

I have my doubts about this current poll.

[Phoenix61]

2. I conversed with someone on FB about this

Booker has a lot more financial support from Kentuckians than McGrath. I hope he gets it.

[Big Blue Marble]

9. McGraft has currently has 19 million.

Booker has 300,000. Who do you think is in better shape to take on Mitch and force him to spend
precious dollars on a race he would rather spend in other states.

[kickitup]

10. The point is Booker's money is coming from within the state.

[Music Man]

12. I take that in the other direction.

If McGrath is outraising Booker by a factor of... almost all of it... and is still losing to Booker, what does that say about them?

Can you imagine a Booker campaign with national backing when he is the sole nominee?

[Bradshaw3]

3. Well said

You make a good case for Booker. I admit I am one of those out of staters who was impressed by McGrath, but it sounds like Booker is the better choice.

[kickitup]

7. Kentuckian here and you nailed it.

I supported McGrath when she ran against Barr and will support her if she wins the primary. Booker, however, is a rising star and he certainly has passion. Amy McGrath needs to quit saying she's a fighter pilot and mentioning how many missions she flew and move on to issues. It's become a joke.

She wouldn't go negative against Barr, but she absolutely needs to do that against Mitch McConnell if she wins the primary.

[smirkymonkey]

13. I appreciate your insiders opinion.

I am one of those out-of-state supporters of Amy McGrath. I just so want SOMEBODY, anybody to beat McConnell and she was the one that got our attention.

[Wanderlust988]

15. Another Kentuckian here agreeing with your assessment

She has poor political instincts. She makes a lot of mistakes. She'd be better served running for a smaller position then going up. And her ads are terrible. She keeps talking about her being a fighter pilot. Okay Amy, we get it! You were a pilot. Now talk about the issues and how Mitch McConnell is a danger to the republic please.

[LiberalFighter]

17. Are you yourself saying not to consider ouside endorsements?

So Sanders and AOC should also not be considered.

[Brainfodder]

18. The people of KY favor Moscow Mitch over a blade of grass?

[mvd]

20. I support Booker

But please, just get McConnell out! That would make me very happy.

[Blasphemer]

21. Thanks for the insight

I am one who is automatically skeptical of anyone Sanders or AOC endorses (Warren's endorsement helps). However, if they are both unlikely to beat McConnell, it makes sense to support the rising star with better political instincts.

[kentuck]

22. Interesting comment.

I saw where KSR endorsed him the other day? That is a sports radio station owned by Matt Jones, from southeastern KY, who himself had a NYTimes bestseller about Mitch McConnell a few months back. He came out for Booker and that may have had a significant impact?

Perception is reality and voters in KY have a certain perception of the former fighter pilot. They respect her and her service but they believe that Booker might stand a better chance across the entire state? If Booker beats McGrath in the primary, then he could give Mitch McConnell a very tough challenge in November.