Please don't anyone get too excited about poll leads now. Hillary was very far ahead

[pnwmom]

at this point in the election cycle.

We all have to work as hard as we can no matter what we think the lead might be.

[Hoyt]

1. Good point. We were sure we had it in 2016.

[ProfessorGAC]

2. While I Agree In General...

...HRC never was 50% or above.
She topped at at 48%.
Biden is 50-55% in 4 different recent polls.
I agree we should act like Biden's down, 10. But, the numbers tell a different tale than 2016.
So, far.

[madinmaryland]

5. Yes. And both candidates had high negative ratings.

Joe Biden doesn’t have the negative ratings that either of them had, and he is letting tRump drive his own negative ratings higher without having to spend anything!

It’s like Biden is running as the incumbent.

[pnwmom]

19. That was because there was a third person in the race -- Jill Stein --

who drew a few points of progressive support.

[RAB910]

3. This

https://www.cnn.com/2016/06/14/politics/poll-hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump/index.html

Washington (CNN)Hillary Clinton has a 12-point lead over Donald Trump nationally, a new Bloomberg Politics poll shows.

Clinton has 49% support to Trump's 37%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 9%, according to the poll of 750 likely voters. The poll was conducted Friday through Monday and released Tuesday evening, meaning many of those polled were surveyed before the Orlando terrorist attack.
Particularly damaging for Trump: 55% of those surveyed said they would never vote for him, compared to 43% who said they'd never back Clinton.

It's a much larger lead than Clinton held in national polls conducted in May and early June, prior to Trump's accusation that the federal judge in the Trump University lawsuit is biased because his parents were born in Mexico and Trump is advocating a U.S.-Mexico border wall.

[pnwmom]

21. Thank you for finding that! n/t

[unblock]

4. hillary was never this far ahead. but dukakis was; so, point taken.

a miracle covid-19 treatment could change things radically.

and of course, we all know republicans are gonna cheat like crazy....

[empedocles]

11. Does anyone doubt that an 'October Surprise', from trump

'Could Trump Turn a Vaccine Into a Campaign Stunt?
In a desperate search for a boost, he could release a coronavirus vaccine that has not been shown to be safe and effective as an October surprise.' - NYT
By Ezekiel J. Emanuel and Paul A. Offit
Dr. Emanuel and Dr. Offit are professors at the University of Pennsylvania.

republicon precedent:

'1972: Peace Is At Hand
Henry Kissinger’s infamous declaration that “peace is at hand” in Vietnam at a White House press conference less than two weeks before Election Day is one of the most infamous examples of the October surprise.'

[Script may already be written - facts and realities don't mater]

[pnwmom]

20. Yes she was -- see the post immediately above yours. nt

[unblock]

32. Not really. Sure, there's a poll or two, but no time period where the average is that high.

https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

A few outliers but joe is generally polling better than Hillary at this point or really any other once the nominations were clear.

[pnwmom]

34. Joe isn't also running against another progressive (Jill Stein) like Hillary was.

And Bernie himself continued till a couple weeks before the convention, whereas he gave Biden his strong support a month ago.

[unblock]

37. Fair points. Bit of apples and oranges.

But I think we all agree that we can't get complacent

[still_one]

6. True. However, the big difference this time though is that the undermining

of the Hillary campaign by a good number of self-identified progressives I do not believe will be a force against us this time.

The "Hunter/Ukraine" issue has no legs, and there sure isn't going to be a Comey coming out 11 days before the election sending a letter to the repubicans in Congress, with the media's help, saying the "email investigation had been reopened". That was a LIE, but was massively pushed by the media.

Our biggest problem I believe is voter disenfranchisement by reducing the number of polls in Democratic district, and other tactics.

Our biggest challenge to overcome that is to get people registered, and signed up for vote by mail where it is available

[AleksS]

15. Why don't you think there'll be a Comey-sequel ?

Do you think Barr wouldn’t stoop to just making some crazy junk up a week before the election?

Barr comes out Oct 23rd saying: “ I have evidence Joe Biden did XXXXX.”

Republicans believe it, because of course.
Democrats believe it, because it’s what we ALWAYS do.

Then Nov 3rd, Barr announces “Oops! It really wasn’t evidence of anything at all. “

Barr lies.
Trump lies.
McEnany lies.
They all lie.

I have no reason to believe that they would not whip out a doozy a week before Election Day.

So be ready. And be ready to remind everyone that: they LIE.

[Thekaspervote]

18. They may try, but it's a rerun. Folks won't go for it. Anymore than they did Ukrainegate

[Skittles]

7. Biden doesn't have to factor in misogyny

but I do agree, we need to always stay vigilant

[mucifer]

9. just wait he might. Wait until he picks a VP before you are sure

[DonaldsRump]

8. I am very optimistic for Joltin' Joe to trounce Fat Donny

That being said, LET US NOT TAKE ANYTHING FOR GRANTED. The Repubs and Trump/Putin will lie, cheat, and steal to keep the Presidency and the Senate. If they don't win, everything they have done becomes exposed, and they go to prison.

This is an EXISTENTIAL THREAT, for them and FOR US.

We must fight every second of the way until November 3, 2020, and then January 20, 2021, and then thereafter.

Don't lose sight of what they can do...and what we can do!

[Generic Brad]

10. At this rate, Trump won't make it to his convention

That statement is not coming from a state of excitement. I am being pragmatic. You don't need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing.

[a kennedy]

12. Thanks, was wondering about Hillary's numbers........

I will be working my arse off for Joe Biden.

[Poiuyt]

13. Two things to think about

1) There had been a negative campaign against Hillary for 20 years prior to that election. She may have been respected, but she was not a real popular candidate.

2) People now know what trump is like. He's no longer an unknown, and people don't like him.

[abqtommy]

14. We elected Hillary in 2016 but the ratfucking won out...remember?

[pnwmom]

22. Yes, because her lead had dropped from the double digits to only about 2%. And that wasn't enough

to win in the Electoral college.

[abqtommy]

24. I remember an intel guy in 2016 who said that votes were changed. That's ratfucking and it's

still going on.

[GulfCoast66]

16. We lost in 16 because too many of the base did not show up.

Had we had even 80% of the Obama voting percent among our base in the cities in the Midwest and Florida she would have had won.

But as much as I like her, the well was poisoned against her for 30 years. More really since I was in Arkansas in the early 80’s.

They won’t stick that shit on Joe in 4 months. And if he picks Harris our base will be there. No democrat is sitting this one out.

[RANDYWILDMAN]

17. This should be the Bigly-est blowout ever...

Minus the hugely voter suppression and the foreign meddling and the Social media companies let TRumpCO post all the propaganda they can and the Liberal media fawning all over themselves to be extra fair to the president.

Get out and vote and tell your friends to get out and vote!!!
Biden 2020

[Brainfodder]

23. Considering he is running against the worst America has & can't improve?

[link:

]

[dsc]

25. That just isn't true

Biden's average lead now is 8.8%. Her average is a bit over 6.1% for the same date in 2016. Biden ranges from 45 to 55 with most of his polls at or above 50. Hillary ranged from 39 to 47. Only her best poll beats his worst poll by this measure. He is in a much better position than she was.

[Awsi Dooger]

27. Biden is not leading on his own merit

His margin is due to weakness from the other side. That is incredibly fragile and destined not to last. Trump has been in free fall.

It's like a football game where a team is a 14 point favorite solely because the other side just had 3 awful games in a row. It may look legitimate initially but then you gulp and ask yourself, "How in heck does that team deserve to be a 14 point favorite over anybody? They are never favored by anywhere near that much. They aren't special enough to be trusted with that type of favoritism."

Even if the election were held right now Biden would not win by anything close to these touted poll margins. I will always default to big picture logic above polling that does not align with that. The nation still has 9% more self-identified conservatives than liberals.

The good news for Biden is fewer undecideds than 2016 so even a small to midsize lead is more substantial than Hillary's late numbers. That will be reflected once Nate Silver starts doing his percentagewise analysis.

[dsc]

29. actually Trump is doing better on average now than he was then

Then he ranged from 29 to 38. Now it is 37 to 47. Only two of his current polls are worse than or tied with his best poll in 2016.

[Thekaspervote]

38. Oh BS!!

[pnwmom]

28. Dream on. Or, you could read about this CNN poll

in June 2015, that gave Hillary a 12 point lead.

And it wasn't the only one.

The only things that put him in a better position is that Bernie gave him full-throated support a month ago -- and that Biden has no Jill Stein running against him. Oh, yes -- and he won't have misogyny to factor in.


https://www.cnn.com/2016/06/14/politics/poll-hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump/index.html

June 15, 2016

Washington (CNN)Hillary Clinton has a 12-point lead over Donald Trump nationally, a new Bloomberg Politics poll shows.

Clinton has 49% support to Trump's 37%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 9%, according to the poll of 750 likely voters. The poll was conducted Friday through Monday and released Tuesday evening, meaning many of those polled were surveyed before the Orlando terrorist attack.

Particularly damaging for Trump: 55% of those surveyed said they would never vote for him, compared to 43% who said they'd never back Clinton.

[dsc]

31. For whatever reason that poll isn't in the RCP average

and it is better than every single poll that is in it for her. But even then, she still doesn't break 50, Biden does in over half of the polls in 2020. Her poll result in that poll in terms of support would be Biden's third worst poll (tied with one other). Trump actually does better in that poll than his typical result for that time frame (it would be tied with several for his 2nd best). But this time it would be tied for his worst. There are considerably fewer undecided voters and Biden is breaking 50 in a majority of polls and in average. She didn't break 50 in even one poll. Trump's RCP average now is 41.4 vs the 46.1 he got in 2016.

I do agree with your reasons for why Biden is doing better in many cases. Clinton was certainly victimized by gender, no arguing that. I also think she was a press target for years and years while Biden mostly hasn't been in part due to her being the wife of Bill Clinton who was a rather large press target in his own right. I also think that Sanders has been considerably more constructive this time than last time. But that doesn't diminish the fact that he is clearly doing better in these polls than Clinton was 4 years ago by both measure of total support and margin. While the increase in margin isn't huge the increase in total support is larger and crosses the all important 50%.

[pnwmom]

35. Yes -- all that and Jill Stein. Hillary had to divide the progressive vote with Stein,

and if Hillary had gotten that 2 percent, it would have put her over the top -- even in the Electoral college. In the key swing states, Stein drew enough votes to ensure a Trump win.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

26. My girlfriend is a good friend of mine.........but she never votes. Just doesn't.

She told me the other day that this time she will vote for Joe.

She loathes tRump and told me we cannot survive another four years of this madman. Plus he scares her.

The wave will arrive and it will be the end of tRump and all his dirty cronies.

[DFW]

30. One very major difference

In 2016, each party was speculating about how horrible it would be if the other party's candidate won.

This time, no speculating about one of them. Now we know how horrible Trump is.

So do many voted for him last time, and wish they hadn't.

[roamer65]

33. Another major difference.

🦠

[DFW]

36. Agreed.

One of many.

[LakeArenal]

39. 2020 is not 2016.20.

[grantcart]

40. There is no comparison. Clinton's lead went up (10 points) one month and 2 the next

Biden's numbers have been rock solid going up every month with no dramatic declines.

[pnwmom]

41. Hillary's lead was substantial till the Comey letter, which knocked it down to 2%.

No no should be assuming that Biden is safe.

[grantcart]

42. Let me bring you up to date on the actual data

On phone so can't link Google U of V (Sabato) article 6/16 by Abromowitz

Lays out month by month

Here are examples

Month. 2016 lead ave. 2020 lead ave

Jan. 3.5. 5.0

Mar. 10.0. 6.4

May. 2.4. 5.6

June. 5.4. 7.7

July. 2.4. N/a


There simply is no comparison on the national pres poll between 2016 and 2020 and mis stating known facts isn't going to help. 2016 carried widely, 2020 didn't

IMO the very real reason to get more involved this time is because we can blow the top off the Senate

Looking very good AZ, Maine, CO, NC

Looking good GA X 2, MT, Iowa

Possible SC, KY, KS (esp if Kolbach wins primary) TX ?

And don't count Jones out

We could pick up 10 Senate seats, that is the message that will generate the most support, not repeating incorrect parralels between 2016 and 2020

[Prof.Higgins]

44. Excellent statement of facts instead of myths. Clinton's % wasn't consistently high as Biden's.

[blakstoneranger]

43. AND THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY THAT

t-rump and his goons (foreign and domestic) are tampering with our election system as we speak. Anybody paying attention?

[budkin]

45. Agreed but she was never ahead like this

And she was always in the low to mid 40s in approval. She never cracked 50 and Biden already has.

[greyl]

46. Did Lindsey Graham ever say anything nice about Hillary Clinton? nt

[kcr]

47. Not the same. For one thing, Biden isn't a woman or a Clinton

For another, America has had 4 years of experiencing Trump. Never mind Biden is polling better than Clinton ever did.