Biden Opens Big Lead Nationally (Fox poll hahaha!)

[applegrove]

Biden Opens Big Lead Nationally

June 18, 2020 at 8:01 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 49 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2020/06/18/biden-opens-big-lead-nationally/

"SNIP......

A Fox News poll shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race by 12 points nationally, 50% to 38%.

Key finding: “Biden supporters are far more likely to say fear that Trump might win is behind their vote choice (63 percent) than to say it is enthusiasm for Biden (31 percent).  The opposite is true among those backing Trump, as almost twice as many of his supporters say enthusiasm is the motivation (62 percent) rather than fear Biden could win (33 percent).”

“Fear is a big factor when it comes to turnout, and that could help Biden.”

......SNIP"

[Dream Girl]

1. Fear is a great motivator

[Devilsun]

2. I wouldn't put it past Fux News

Deliberately putting out inaccurate polling data in an attempt to drive down turnout on election day! 🤨

[Thekaspervote]

4. That maybe true but there are LOTS of pollsters averaging polls and they look similar

Even the betting markets are predicting a Biden win.

https://www.predictit.org/


https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/democratic_primary/

[uponit7771]

3. Meaningless, we always get pulled in by the eye candy numbers that don't matter. Swing states matter

... more than anything.

We need to be up way past the MOE in LV polls to win in the swing stats too at this point.

[kurtcagle]

5. Look at the two sets of stats together, however

I like Biden a lot, but I'd definitely say that there were very few Democrats I wouldn't have rallied for if it meant getting rid of Trump. A 33% Biden fear factor is extraordinarily low, as I suspect that Clinton was probably closer to 60% of a fear factor for Trump supporters.

Yes, the framing by Fox is irritating, but these numbers are still bad news for Trump, but it also means only about 23% of the sample population are actually enthusiastic about Trump. The remaining 12% (in the Trump camp primarily because they're afraid of what Biden would bring) can be converted. I'm also expecting independents to break about 70/30 for Biden.

[Talitha]

6. Fear is a VERY big factor - look how it flipped Lindsey Graham.