I am calling BS on polls showing Biden way ahead

[KentuckyWoman]

Hand me the tin foil. Flame me. I am sorry but I am convinced it is entirely propaganda designed to get Democrats thinking it is in the bag and can slack off. Maybe a enough voters will skip voting... I mean it is in the bag so why spend hours in line to vote when he can win without me?

Sorry but I call BS. They are running an operation. They did it in 16. They are doing it now. Work our butts off. Get the registrations in. Get out the vote

And I mean for all races. Top to bottom. .

[msongs]

1. polls are pretty much just election porn this far out IMO. chatter time nt

[Hoyt]

2. Hopefully, we've learned our lesson on complacency, and want to stomp trumpsters

for all history to remember.

[StevieM]

7. Hopefully we learned our lesson about people like James Comey.

He handed the GOP the 2016 election, not complacency.

[Hoyt]

26. Honestly, believe voters not showing up cost us 1+%. Comey did too. Ticked off Democrats as well.

[StevieM]

39. I totally disagree that Comey only cost us 1 percent.

I think he cost us a whole lot more than that.

Without Comey's repeated interference I think we would have defeated Trump decisively.

[Hoyt]

44. But, since we lost by less than 1% in 3 states, trump would have lost if people hadn't stayed home,

voted 3rd party, or even voted for trump just because their guy lost in Democratic primary.

Not disputing Comey's impact, but there's not much we could do about that on election day. More folks could have voted for the Democrat.

[Demsrule86]

61. And that is the point...we could have won.

Indeed a self inflicted wound...

[luv2fly]

3. Agreed

All the Biden enthusiasm is great but it ain't in the bag at all. It pains me to read such enthusiasm and harkens to 4 short years ago.

[Demsrule86]

50. Does it pain you? it pleases me.

[Thekaspervote]

64. Agree! Nothing about President Biden pains me!!

[procon]

4. Who is this "they" you speak of?

As far as conspiracy theories go, yours requires an enormous stretch to twist it into any sort of sense.

First, how would you manipulate a poll from people surveyed at random? Or how do you manipulate the data when multiple staff and statisticians are working on it and your weasel math doesn't correlate with the stats?

I dunno, but mark me off as a skeptic.

[DrToast]

20. +1

[stopdiggin]

21. the polls (with a few outliers) are fairly legit

or are at least attempting to deliver accurate results. One of the ongoing problems for polling, and the Ds, is that the Democrats just simply don't do as good a job of showing up! There's some signs of things turning around on that score .. but it's an unfortunate fact that all the polling in the world .. doesn't actually get people to the polls.

(I like mail in ballots .. but you do whatever you like to do .. just so long as you do it! And invest 2-3 minutes checking out your registration, polling station and stuff .. a week or two before the actual vote. That way no surprises!)

[BannonsLiver]

28. Well, it's them, of course.

Haven’t you heard of them?

[Jeebo]

5. One of the talking heads on MSNBC said the other day...

...that Hillary had an 11-point lead at one point in October 2016.

We're still four and a half months out. An awful lot can happen in that much time.

-- Ron

[live love laugh]

19. And Republicans were also against Trump in 2016 but when it all went down we know what happened.

Republicans are never to be trusted. Hopefully, we can galvanize ourselves enough to overcome their inevitable shenanigans.

[ProfessorGAC]

41. Then He Was Wrong

Aggregated polls never had HRC with a double digit lead.
8% was the largest lead. She did win by 3+ million popular votes.
In addition, the framework is entirely different. There was no incumbent, HRC was fighting 30 years of anti-Clinton rhetoric and the incumbent (had there been one) wasn't self-immolating.
So, that talking head had the facts wrong AND was comparing apples to oranges. I'd ignore that talking head from now on, if I were you.

[Jeebo]

54. You're missing her point.

Her point was that we have to avoid complacency. No matter how much of a sure thing Biden might seem to be, we have to keep working hard and working harder. I think she was referencing one specific poll in October 2016 that showed Hillary leading by 11 points, and I don't doubt her. She wasn't talking about aggregate polls. But right or wrong about that one specific poll at that one moment in October 2016, the broad overall point she was making is what is important. And still is.

Oh, and she didn't win the popular vote by 3+ million votes, she won by 2.86 million. Still a solid popular vote victory.

-- Ron

[ProfessorGAC]

55. I Missed Nothing

I was commenting solely on the "talking head" who was wrong.
I also think a big lead actually encourages some people to vote because it is human nature to back a winner.
The tool in the WH now got votes because people got suckered into believing he was a successful businessman & billionaire. He was neither.
But, people got fooled into thinking they were backing a "winner".
I didn't miss the point. I disagree with it.
While I think dems should GOTV like never before, I don't think complacency over dominant poll numbers is a genuine cause for concern.

[treestar]

78. most people fall for the latest media shiny object

Whatever happens in October , late, is all that matters. They will be going on 24/7 about something. They will want it to "tighten." So yes, take no confidence from polls.

[crimycarny]

6. Apples and Oranges

Lots of differences between 2020 and 2016. First of all our country has never EVER experienced a President that was so morally bankrupt. He is a whole new low this country has never seen before... That alone might not have been enough had Trump never faced a crisis. but he’s had 2 (COVID-19 and nationwide civil protests over BLM), and he has failed at both spectacularly.

As for voter’s staying home the stakes are way too high regardless of polls for that to happen. No one will forget what happened in 2016 so I don’t think anyone is going to stay home this time, even if polls show Biden ahead by +25 points.

Nope, it’s different this time. I will not take this election for granted but I’m also not going to devolve into conspiracy theories and hand wringing. Nothing but an energy drain to go down that road.

[Tommymac]

42. 100% agree.

The Polls are what they are.

In 2016 the Dems ran a candidate who raised the ire of the conservative Right and brought them out in droves in usually reliable Blue battleground states, while complacency after 8 successful years under one of the best Presidents ever also haunted the Democrats. Don't ever forget Hillary Clinton WON the popular vote by a mile.

Racism played it's part too. We are fortunate that recent events have probably countered that part of the issue. If minorities and Generation Z does not turn out this year they never will.

[Thekaspervote]

65. Agree! Dems are not into a rerun of 16! They are anxious and enthusiastic to vote on 11/3

[CrispyQ]

77. A lot of people will vote just to get the fucker off the news 24x7.

Never has a president inserted himself into our daily lives like this one has, much less behaved so abysmally while doing so.

I am so sick of him.

[Wounded Bear]

8. Not a bad way to think...

Not the part, the part about don't change anything and keep working to maximize Dem voter turnout come November.

GOTV!!!

[Bernardo de La Paz]

9. tRumpanzee trick is they often say they will vote for Hillary/Biden to blow up polls. . . . nt

[BigmanPigman]

10. I don't blame you. I trust no one anymore.

[Lock him up.]

11. GOTV, but...

... Faux Noi$e poll is not the only poll with Biden ahead but but but, national polls are worthless.

5 or 6 States will swing it in one way or the other. All others are fixed in cement.

Lock him up.

[betsuni]

12. I don't understand the "complacency" thing.

Because voter turnout in 2016 wasn't much different from most other years as far as I can tell.

1992 -- 55.2
1996 -- 49.0
2000 -- 50.3
2004 -- 55.7
2008 -- 58.2
2012 -- 54.9
2016 -- 55.7

Why do people say that people stayed home in 2016?

[Silent3]

14. Not that I agree with the premise of the OP, but as for the importance of turnout...

...please remember that the whole race ended up depending on very small differences in key swing states

Even negating the seemingly small difference in turnout from 2008 of 58.2% down to 55.7% in 2016 could very well have turned the election in Clinton's favor.

[uponit7771]

15. THANK YOU !!! People didn't stay home it was Russian backed 3rd party candidates in swing states ...

... that syphoned votes from HRC.

[betsuni]

17. Thank YOU!

And it was the first election after voting rights law repealed, did Russia/Republicans tamper with votes?, so many things we don't know.

[Midwestern Democrat]

16. It's total nonsense - the GOP made the "complacency" excuse in 1948 when Truman scored a shocking

upset victory against Dewey, but it wasn't true - more Democrats stayed home because they thought Truman was doomed than Republicans stayed home because they thought Dewey had it in the bag; Truman lost the largest state - New York - solely because half a million New Yorkers thought it was safe to cast a protest vote for Henry Wallace. Any campaign would much rather be perceived as winning versus being hopelessly behind - it's much harder for a campaign perceived to be losing to raise money, get campaign volunteers, and motivate supporters to vote.

[treestar]

79. True, but remember the EC

They stayed home in the right states.

[Silent3]

13. As far as I'm concerned, it's amazing that Biden isn't further ahead

Trump is so utterly, clearly, and obviously corrupt, dishonest, ignorant, incompetent, malignantly narcissistic, and tempermentally unfit for even running a corner convenience store, much less a country, that I'm totally blown away that his support isn't in the single digits rather than seldom straying far from 40%.

I'm far more worried about electoral chaos, voter suppression, and outright cheating than I'm worried that Trump is actually truly ahead in the race, and that that's somehow being hidden from us.

[smirkymonkey]

18. Regardless of where he stands, we should always run like we are 20 points behind.

Never slack off, never take anything for granted. We can afford nothing less than a landslide in November.

And we need to start now to insure that voting is fair. How do we stop them from cheating? FFS, there has to be a way to prevent this from happening again.

[Loki Liesmith]

22. This is silly conspiracy mongering.

No one is designing public polls to do anything except estimate actual voting intention.

Polling companies are trying to sell a product and it does them no good to sell a willfully defective product.

[Baclava]

23. Trump is toast. He might win 4 states, ID, WY, ND, SD, thats it. ALL the apathy voters will be his

Keep it simple, Vote Blue, thats all we need to do

Nobody hates Joe, EVERYBODY hates something about the War Criminal in chief, enough to keep them home

[Polybius]

27. Mississippi says hi

I see Alabama waving too.

[obamanut2012]

29. And UT

[Polybius]

32. And OK for sure

TN too.

[Baclava]

31. Re-taking FL and its delegates will wipe out all those states alone, PA will nail the coffin shut

[Polybius]

33. I agree Florida is a win at this point

Not Mississippi or Alabama though. OK and TN are lost causes as well.

[Tipperary]

36. Ha! Exactly!

And SC. NC could support Biden easily.

[USALiberal]

38. No way in hell! Nt

[rockfordfile]

72. It's a long way to go

[honest.abe]

24. I do not think being optimistic about winning negatively affects turnout.

One could argue just the opposite... eg "the bandwagon effect".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bandwagon_effect

Also, I do not see how it is possible all these polls from various organizations can be simultaneously sabotaged. That makes no logical sense.

Can't we just be pleased that Biden is ahead but realize there is a long way to go and just keep working to expand that lead to make sure we win big. I think that is the appropriate attitude.

[ProfessorGAC]

46. I Agree

Human nature wants to back a winner. If the person one was thinking about voting for is looking like a sure winner, people will be motivated to vote. That makes them feel they contributed.

[Thekaspervote]

66. +1000

[kentuck]

25. If you don't have 50%, you don't have enough to win.

No matter how far ahead you might be. That was the problem with Hillary's polls, also. She was way ahead but never above the 50% threshold.

[NewJeffCT]

30. Typically, when polls show a candidate well ahead

their voters are energized and more likely to vote. The supporters of the one well behind are dispirited and less likely to vote.

If the polls show it's close, then it's GOTV

[highplainsdem]

35. Yes. Which is why Trump is saying the polls are a conspiracy, calling them "suppression polls."

[highplainsdem]

34. We need to GOTV. But the polls aren't a conspiracy.

[Happy Hoosier]

37. Ummm.... no.

Many of these polling firms have a long history and value their reputation. There are certainly hack pollsters out there that will produce the results the wants, but your scenario implies a pretty vast conspiracy.

In short, I call bullshit on your bullshit.

They are a snap shot. That's it. And IMO, the utter meltdown that they are causing in Bunkerboi is valuable.

[Tommymac]

48. +1 n/t

[Nitram]

40. Sounds like you are in need of a ultra-dense tinfoil shield against those conspiracy theories being

broadcast directly to your brain by the proverbial "THEM". I wonder if you have any idea of how many people and organizations would have to be involved for so many disparate polling groups coming up with roughly similar results?

[brooklynite]

43. The only thing worse than a conspiracy theory is a lazy one.

You’ve lumped biased media with responsible media, academic institutions, pro- Democratic pollsters, etc.

[Demsrule86]

45. You have no reason to say this...no facts to back up your assertion...

I believe Biden is substantially ahead...and I also believe such posts as this, actually discourage voters and bring enthusiasm down.

[Tommymac]

49. +1 n/t

[Demsrule86]

59. Thank you...

[honest.abe]

51. +1

[Demsrule86]

58. Thank you.

[Recursion]

47. Nobody gives a shit that Biden got paid for making speeches

Whatever bizarre and unprecedented ethical principle people suddenly discovered in 2016 against getting paid for doing the lecture circuit has apparently disappeared now, and that pretty much accounts for the difference between the polling now and in 2016.

[Texin]

52. Polls are flawed because of how questions are asked about specific issues.

The other MAJOR problem with relying on polls is that, they reflect opinions and future intent, but the results are solely dependent on people doing what they say they are planning to do. Clinton, too, was way ahead in the polls throughout almost all of 2018. People didn't show up in the numbers they needed to have, especially in the swing states tRump carried (with a lift from Russia, et al). And the old white man hatred of Hilary didn't help. So, like the OP, I'm happy to see the poll results,, but I certainly won't be relying on them to be accurate to the point I'd feel ok about sitting this out and expect Biden to win.

Biden's going to need a virtual landslide and a solid win in the states that put tRump over the top last time, otherwise the election can be stolen. Again.

[mwb970]

53. If I say what I think about you and this comment they will delete my post.

It's already happened once.

[jimlup]

56. I agree but for different tin foil hat reasons...

Make no mistake. Russia will have it's hand in this election and Putin wants tRump.

China will also be involved and they too likely want tRump. He's the ideal puppet.

Also, I'm not a computer expert but I am knowledgeable about physics. I can think of many ways to steal the election in my home state. I also don't doubt that something like what I'm thinking of happened in 2016. What we see in the news is NOT the whole story.

There is going to be MAJOR SHIT going down between now and November and we will only know half the story by November 3rd. You are certainly right about that.

[blakstoneranger]

57. YOU TELL'EM KW!

Most of these polls are from weird sources anyway.

[Jamastiene]

60. I agree.

Never let your guard down with Trump or with the Republicans. I would hate to see us be surprised horribly again this year. This nightmare needs to end. So, we should act as if we are behind and MAKE SURE TO GO VOTE. Don't think someone else has got it for you and sit back and rest thinking it's all in the bag. Republicans cheat like crazy too. For all of their cheating, alone, it is worth far more Democrats voting than ever before, to counteract that cheating. That along is reason enough to not be too relaxed about it. Remember, Republicans get away with cheating and get to "win" when they cheat. The courts are NOT in the Democratic Party's favor and usually not in the voters' favor.

[seta1950]

62. Good idea

I agree we should not letup, there’s too much riding on this election, our lives in my opinion.

[JonLP24]

63. It isn't difficult for me to believe that Trump did an awful job for 3 1/2 years

that most people prefer Biden at this point. The polls were accurate for the primaries.

[scardycat]

67. The polls are right the problem is..

the trumpicans are going to try to steal the election by voter suppression, intimidation, lost voter ballets anyway they can. Keep your eyes open

[polmaven]

68. Even if he IS ahead in the polls--

Where is he per the Electoral College? Hillary led popular votes for the majority of the campaign as well.

[reACTIONary]

69. I'd really like to know who...

"They" are, and exactly how "They" would be be capable of faking / influencing multiple national polls conducted by several different organizations.

[TBF]

70. Too far out to really make any assumptions -

I don't know if there's a lot of enthusiasm for Biden personally, but he has been accepted and there is a lot of enthusiasm for removing Trump. And enthusiasm for a woman of color as VP - that has the potential to keep enthusiasm very high.

As far as all races, top to bottom. With you there - and I suspect the real issue will be getting people to the polls with coronavirus. It's not going to be better in Nov. if things don't change, so figuring out how to help people vote will be key (education about mail in, early voting etc).

[Flash953]

71. Her point is don't be complacent!!

She's right

[marmar]

73. I agree that we must not be complacent but....

.... this year is very different from 2016.

[quaker bill]

74. I think the polls are just fine

but this is no reason to let up. Trump losing by 20 points is better than Trump just losing by 10 or 15. The more House seats, Senate seats, and Governor's Mansions the better.

[aikoaiko]

75. National Polls are not as meaningful as I wish they were -- much like popular votes

But I am heartened by the state-by-state polls and the electoral college votes.

Still, we have to keep the pedal to the metal.

[Schmice3]

76. YOU ARE CORRECT

They want to give the non-Trumpers a false sense of security hoping they will become complacent and stay home. I totally agree with you.

[Runningdawg]

80. At this point you would need tinfoil to think otherwise

The only way to win this thing is to campaign like Biden is 20 points down until the polls close. Get ready for the "poor abuse victims of Joe Biden" to be crawling out of the woodwork right up until that moment too. And you can bet any day, Trump is going to be dragging Biden's dead son through the mud, repeatedly.