March super spreader event in VT! 3200 fans. How will Tulsa go?

[jmg257]

https://vtdigger.org/2020/06/18/uvm-basketball-game-was-a-major-spreading-event-vtdigger-survey-finds/

54+ people sick/symptoms - 3 dead - from a bb game.

Twenty people who attended the March 10 UVM basketball game reported that they later tested positive for Covid-19, according to a VTDigger survey. An additional 34 people who responded said they experienced flu-like symptoms, but couldn’t get a test.


But the 3,200 cheering fans filling Patrick Gym represented all the ways not to act in a pandemic: squeezed shoulder-to-shoulder on the bleachers, offering high fives, yelling, sharing pizza with neighbors.

[Terry_M]

1. Probably something in between this and the protests

All of the BLM protests don't seem to have generated any new spread.
Protesters have, generally - from all the video footage - seemed to be responsible - almost everyone is wearing masks, they are all outside and though they aren't always apart, there was some social distancing (somewhat spread out).

Baseball game before we knew wtf was going on - the other extreme.

Trump rally - something in between. It's not a baseball game. I expect some people to be conscious of social distancing and mask wearing. But probably a lot less respectful of that, the sentiment of the Trumpists being that mask wearing = socialism or whatever.
So something in between... The rally will lead to a few hundred extra cases of Covid than if there was no rally. A few hundred extra cases suggests and extra few deaths. But it doesn't change the trajectory overall, a small bump that won't register when we still have 20k+ cases a day. So he'll do it again.

[soothsayer]

2. But a few extra hundred cases that take it home

And spread it there?

That’s the problem.

These are dedicated mask shunners.

[Terry_M]

3. depends on where they go back to

if they go back to a place where R0 is well below 1 (due to local measures, population density) then 10 people spread it to 6 and those 6 spread it to 4 and it goes away. If they bring it back to one of the areas in Florida that is going in the wrong direction, then the 10 get it to 20 and those 20 get it to 40 and after 3 months there's an extra 1k cases caused by the rally down in Florida.

[uponit7771]

4. Hmmmm, Looks like VT most likely wasn't infected like TOK too. Tulsa is going to be a crap show