Odds of Trump backing out of the race??

[cbdo2007]

Last night was a disaster and I think shows that the polls are way off for Trump.

There is no way he'll follow through with the election if he thinks he might lose. He always quits rather than accept failure and this would be the biggest failure of his life.

I bet within the next couple of months he finds an excuse to back out and they have to run Pence who will fail miserably.

[no_hypocrisy]

1. Better odds than yesterday . . . . . . .

[StarfishSaver]

9. +1

[sunonmars]

2. Would not surprise me in the least if he left Pence carrying the can and then blamed him for losing.

[Hugin]

3. Zero, until he figures out some way to gain legal immunity.

Which, is unlikely as well.

[fleur-de-lisa]

35. Yep. He has no good options.

[WyattKansas]

71. That may have been Wild Billy Barr's biggest reason to get his paws on the S.D. of New York.

To destroy evidence and leverage an immunity deal for Der Hair Fuhrer to leave.

[Hugin]

76. My thoughts, precisely.

Mine-Mine Teletubby wants out... Now! But, he has conditions.

[mucifer]

4. It would split what's left of their party

[MuseRider]

5. I have been thinking that too.

He will NOT lose, he could not handle that or even a close finish he could not handle that. I figure around October if it looks bad he will come on TV angry and throw up his hands and quit because we do not appreciate him enough. You know, one of those self important huffs he can get into. It will be perfect, he will walk out and take his toys with him and we will look at Pence who is trying to handle things while Mother hangs on to his coat to be certain he stays within the rules with other women and Biden will walk in with a majority and a very rilled up Right but one with relief.

[RKP5637]

24. Yeah, I think there's a good chance that might happen, in his mind it will be an out,

but really in his narcissistic sociopathic mind it will be ... I'm too good to waste my time with this country.

[MuseRider]

41. Exactly.

He wasted ALL this time trying to get us out of the "mess" Obama left us in and we respond with some tiny little group of people who love him. The rest of us just do not deserve him. We don't deserve him, never did, so he can go away and he might hear the cheering from his inevitable jail cell.

[DeminPennswoods]

82. Can totally envision that scenario

nt

[PTWB]

6. The odds are zero.

[Eyeball_Kid]

7. You're right, that's Trumpy-boy's MO.

He now WISHES that he had an easy escape from this hole he dug for himself. For five years, he's played to his own brand. He's not a person of conviction within any other context. He's only committed to his brand. When his brand fails, he can't back away. He's glued to it. So he is approaching the description of an abject failure and he knows it. And, as he's done in the past with many, many lawsuits and court cases, he'll look for a way OUT. He can't stand the possibility that he'll have to be accountable for creating this debacle. It's becoming more clear that, as Biden sits in his basement watching the shit show on the TV that's Trumpy's disaster, he knows that he's headed for a huge fall. That was the look of defeat he had when he landed in DC last night. He's looking down at the grave he dug for himself.

[NJCher]

45. I want to see this

did you see it on a youtube clip or on tv?

[lastlib]

54. I do see it differently....The presidency is his 'get out of jail free' card.

It's the only thing that keeps him out of jail, and he won't give it up without an escape, ie, a pardon from Pence. Or a self-pardon (after he loses in a landslide and sees the next admin/Congress coming after him.

He doesn't see the current situation as a debacle. That's just fake news to him. He takes no responsibility, remember. Forty million people out of work? big effin'deal. They're all losers, who should get jobs and stop mooching (says the number one moocher). He really sees it much as Adolf did in the final days of the war--that the people were not worthy of his greatness.

No, he won't go before he's dragged out on Jan. 20th.

[Thekaspervote]

8. I think you might be on to something!

[In_The_Wind]

10. I wish that he would.

[Tetrachloride]

11. The legal immunity is reason 1.

Some of the issues

1. Legal immunity
2. Pence might pardon him but who knows. VP Quayle had more spine.
3. Chief of staff and Kushner and Ivanka and Putin will lie to Hair Mussolini about the winnability.
4. Some states may not allow a change of names on the ballot if when Trump decides to not run for re-election.
5. There is no guarantee that Pence would run for election if Trump goes another way.

On the hand, Trump is a limp noodle for now.

Not taking bets either way.

[DeminPennswoods]

83. Statute of limitations is 5 years, so

another 4 year term would not help him with that for things he's done in the last year or so.

[Hoyt]

12. Don't think they'd substitute Pence. They'd go for someone with a chance to win.

[RKP5637]

26. I've been wondering that too ... all of the GOP power hierarchy does not love this guy.

They might do what they did with Nixon ... it's all over Trump ... and find someone else to throw up against Biden.

[Hoyt]

34. While I'd still bet on Biden after what trump has done, a Haley or Romney might cut the lead.

Throw someone like that in at the last minute, and it would really shake up the election. That's one danger of aiming everything at trump.

[Lulu KC]

43. But don't they all hate Romney now?

After Article II and then showing up at DC protests? I haven't been following. Who are his friends?

[JI7]

74. Romney isn't going to do it and Haley is a fool and overrated

[SheltieLover]

47. Yup

Romney.

[Turbineguy]

48. Romney.

The MAGAts would simply shift to their, "Please take our Social Security away!" mode.

[sop]

13. Given the Trump staff members and Secret Service agents who were reportedly infected by

COVID-19, it shouldn't come as a surprise if Trump tests positive as well. That diagnosis could prove interesting, considering Trump's poor health. He might not be well enough to run.

[Tarc]

14. He spent 2 minutes rambling about installing TVs in Air Force One

and probably about 5-10 talking about water-drinking and ramp-walking. Trump has neither the self-awareness nor the humility that would allow him to withdraw from the race.

He is 100% in Hitler-in-the-bunker--and-everything's-fine mode.

[njhoneybadger]

15. A couple more bad turnouts he might be looking for an exit strategy.

[edhopper]

16. Zero

nilch, nada, none, never...

[Zoonart]

17. Trump will never go out tagged with the LOSER label.

HE will take his chances with the courts. Drag cases out for years. That has alway been his MO in NYC.

[stopwastingmymoney]

18. I always thought he'd run away in the night

It could still happen...🤷‍♀️

[RKP5637]

33. Yeah, like he did here!!!

[Lulu KC]

44. Wonderful--thanks! n/t

[BootinUp]

19. I have always considered it a possibility. nt

[Mz Pip]

20. Zero

His hate will fuel his campaign. He won’t quit. He’ll get nastier though.

[sarcasmo]

21. The only way Trump quits is if he cuts a no prison deal.

[empedocles]

36. Absolutely guaranteed no-prison deal . . . maybe

[tinrobot]

22. If he knows he'll lose, then he will get very dangerous.

He's has nothing to restrain him at this point. He'll steal everything he can, get as much revenge as he can, then throw gasoline on the fire as he leaves.

He may leave tomorrow or next January, but the coming months are going to be wild.

[tulipsandroses]

23. Not a chance. He knows what awaits. That's why Barr is busy trying to mess with SDNY

He is going to fight to the death.

[stopbush]

25. Here's a plan tRump can borrow

1. Schedule a foreign policy trip to Russia

2. Come down with some mysterious illness while there. Have WH doctors announce POTUS can’t travel at this time

3. tRump pulls out of race and abdicates presidency “for the good of the country”

4. tRump spends his retirement under the wing of his buddy Putin, free from prosecution in the USA

[MoonRiver]

31. Not sure Putin would want to help his "useful idiot" anymore. nt

[BComplex]

59. Yeah. Putin's not going to have any use for him whatsoever.

Now, if he wants to go fall in love with Kim Jong Un all over again, maybe Kim would take him in.

And torture him.

[dawg day]

27. I wouldn't have thought that yesterday--

But the video of him returning last night-- he looks like a beaten man. And if he looks this bad in June....


But while his Trumpers didn't bother to show up in Tulsa, I notice that they are defiantly claiming that his wish for less Covid testing last night was "sarcasm". Very much in force with the "sarcasm" defense. I keep asking, "Who would be sarcastic about 120K dead? Why would you think that's a good thing?"

They're really stupid, but after Tulsa, I'm thinking they are loud but few.

Link to tweet

[empedocles]

38. Why 'The media could not be played'?

[TreasonousBastard]

42. It's a random thing-- try refreshing the page and then clicking it.

[ProfessorGAC]

50. TB Is Right!

Has happened to me, too.
Refresh.
Problem gone.

[Lulu KC]

46. How can I feel such pathos

along with total disgust simultaneously?
This guy pushes some obscure buttons in the mammalian brain.
Please, Puty, give him a nice estate overlooking a lake and get him out of our sight.

[cwydro]

28. Nah.

I've seen this prediction of him resigning ever since he got elected.

[Rhiannon12866]

29. It's probably too late in the day for the Republicans to choose an actual Republican

Too many Republican voters have swallowed the Trump Kool-Aid and too many Republican office holders are complicit, especially after their behavior during the impeachment hearings. They are forever tied to Trump.

[Mr. Ected]

30. I wonder how many people at RNC are thinking the same thing

Knowing they've put all their money on a broken horse.

Maybe they're not worried at all, knowing exactly how the election will be thrown.

[empedocles]

60. That is interesting. Easy to guess they have thought about 'the same thing'

How trump goes out, may worry them personally.

[cherish44]

32. It's either stay president or go to prison

I don't think he likes either option very much but the first is probably better.

[MineralMan]

37. 5:3 He Resigns, but not before the election.

After he loses, though, he resigns, picks up his federal blanket pardon from Pence and takes his chances with NY State prosecutions, which probably would not end up happening, anyhow.

There's no positive thing to be gained by resigning before the election, but plenty to be gained by resigning after he loses.

Trump will play for his best odds, i think.

[empedocles]

39. Why 'would NY State prosecutions, which probably would not end up happening anyhow'?

Other States also?

[MineralMan]

51. To date, as far as I know, no former President has ever been prosecuted

by any state. There is no historical precedent for it, again, as far as I know.

For a state Attorney General, the bar is very high in making a decision to carry out such a prosecution.

I simply do not thing it would happen, even in the case of Donald Trump.

[jmowreader]

66. No former president has ever been this corrupt

[cbdo2007]

58. Either way he could resign and have Pence pardon him...

What he would hate more than anything is losing to Biden (Obama) so if he thinks he might lose I could see him thinking if an excuse so he doesn't have to be a loser. He knows he's a quitter but can't handle being a loser. That is provavlu more harmful to him than the risk of all the lawsuits.

[MineralMan]

63. I don't know. He may be able to believe he will win,

despite all evidence to the contrary.

[Awsi Dooger]

67. If you dealt those odds into a real pool your oddsmaking career wouldn't last 5 minutes

Wise guys would be emptying their pockets while having difficulty restraining laughter.

There has always been relentless lunacy around here regarding Trump resigning, removed from office, or not being renominated.

Other than mortality, the odds of any of the above have always been absolute zero.

Fantastic litmus test

[EllieBC]

69. I agree

There’s nothing to be gained by doing it now and he’s always looking out for himself first.

[Habibi]

40. Been thinking this, too.

He could flee the country. Yeah, he wouldn't have the influence he sells now (and god knows he couldn't pay his way with money), but he could make a deal with all the classified info he has access to.

If he goes, I hope he takes his awful family with him.

[Delmette2.0]

49. I don't care how he ends this shitshow.

He can run to Russia, fake a heart attack, catch Covid-19. I just hope that Adam Schiff is dusting off all the inditements for Individual 1 and unindicted co-conspirators.

[Under The Radar]

52. He may be frustrated enough to quit

...but they still have the voter suppression card, closed polling stations, the faulty voting machines and all of the states that will require a recount that will be decided by the Supreme Court. McConnell and Putin have worked too hard for Trump to quit now.

[Mme. Defarge]

53. If he has lost his main source of narcissistic supply,

his rallies, hey, it’s still a free country. He’s said it himself, that he’s so rich he doesn’t need the job.

Oh, wait...

[USALiberal]

55. Silly. nt

[Proud Liberal Dem]

56. Low (still)

I believe that he will cling on to the bitter end. I mean, things look awful for him but there are still lots of loyal MAGATS whom are going to vote for him no matter what. May not be enough to carry him over the top but I would not expect him to just quit under almost any circumstance foreseeable. He will continue to scheme to lie, cheat, and steal his way to re-election. I count his odds as being ultimately unsuccessful, but he's not going to make it easy.

[Demsrule86]

57. 0 chance.

[gulliver]

61. He wants out for sure.

I'm not sure he can back out. He's melting down.

[sarisataka]

62. He will quit

Just like he did in 2016 and all those hundreds of other times people have predicted this

[redstateblues]

64. Nope. He believes all that Silent Majority crap

[Jarqui]

65. I think some might be overlooking something pretty significant

Trump did not win the presidency by himself

He did not remain in office through his impeachment without help.

Should the GOP decide they want another candidate, they have pretty compelling options to make that happen.

Before the convention, if the polls and the situation are looking like they are now, most Republicans will not feel they can ride on Trump's coattails to reelection. They will ask themselves if their prospects would be better with someone else.

Then they can go to Trump and say "resign or we'll impeach you and won't support your reelection".

Trump can resign by feigning illness. Pence can pardon him.
Republicans can run a more competitive candidate that will help get others reelected.

It's all about power. Republicans have that power and want to retain as much political power as they can. Trump is just an ugly piece of ornamental furniture in that house that can be tossed any time after he's served their purpose as they so choose.

No incumbent had worse numbers than Trump does. Not Johnson, Ford, Carter or GHW Bush. Republicans are a lot of evil things but stupid isn't one of them.

[cbdo2007]

81. Exactly. He is dropping like a stone and he's only there because *THEY* want him to be.

As soon as they are done with him, they'll tell him to move on and he'll go whether he really wants to or not.

[RhodeIslandOne]

84. He doesn't give a shit about Bitch or any of them

Now, taking a loss directly and his ego may convince him to get out.

[Jarqui]

85. I agree that he only cares about himself but

He also seems to have some appreciation for polls

So if he's facing a loss, he very likely would be facing criminal charges.
The GOP could ensure the loss by turning their backs on him.
As I understand it, though I'm sure he'd try, he cannot pardon himself.

Now he can hold off the GOP with the dirt he has on them taking Russian money, etc.

To avoid taking the loss directly, he feigns illness - not hard to fathom with his obesity.
Pence becomes President and pardons him.
The GOP get to run a more agreeable candidate for their fortunes.

Putin releases the Pee Pee tape for a laugh.
NY State arrests him and charges him with multiple crimes before he can slink off to a country that cannot extradite him.
And most of us are happy if Biden is in the Oval office.

[Awsi Dooger]

68. Normalcy is always the favorite

Keep that in mind and you'll never go wrong. I can't count how many wagers I won in Las Vegas simply by ignoring all the noise and all the overreactions while relying on wonderful normalcy.

The problem with Donald Trump is that he is such a lowlife nobody wants to believe that normalcy can possibly apply. That's why every sucker for 3.5 years has insisted he won't make it beyond 2017, and so forth.

Normalcy fully applies to Trump if he loses. He won't try to remain in office. He won't resign. He will make all of the typical lowlife moves and then bow out on January 20th.

We've got a long way before then. A despicable human being is not going down meekly, especially with a coordinated lowlife justice department.

[struggle4progress]

70. Give him a day or two and he'll remember his perfect speech to the historic overflow crowd outside

[Hekate]

72. Zero. As long as he's potus he can't be tried & sentenced. And he can pardon friends. nt

[The King of Prussia]

73. The Republicans' October Surprise

Trump dies.

[Lucinda]

75. I've thought so all along. If they offer him a deal he'll take it

He's only sticking around because of the fear of fed prosecution

[DFW]

77. Two possibilities

Health concerns...."I know you wanted me, but alas my doctors tell me.........."

My work is done here......."I accomplished more in my one term then FDR accomplished in four. Let's face it, ther's not much more I could have done."

I don't seen him whining his way out it any other way.

[Raine]

78. Nonexistent nt

[DeminPennswoods]

79. Better than we might think

Last edited Mon Jun 22, 2020, 01:58 PM - Edit history (1)

Bolton said something I'd not heard before during his sit down with Raddatz that when it came to his re-election Trump's attention span was infinite (infinitely long). When it becomes clear to him, he will lose, his ego will drive him to quit before that happens. He will convince himself he's done a the best job ever at presidenting, there's no more to accomplish and he never wanted a second term anyway.

[cbdo2007]

80. That's what I'm thinking as well...one thing Trump knows, it is the odds of survival

His entire business empire is built on shell games for what all he can get away with without getting caught and getting embarrassed and getting into too much trouble.

If he realizes it is over he will find a way out. Medical issue maybe?? Just retreat and blame everyone forever?? Run off to Russia or to an island somewhere?

For a guy who never accepts responsibility for anything, losing is something he would never be able to handle and there is definitely a certain thresh hold he needs in order to fix votes.