Unsanitized: Why Deaths May Not Spike Despite Rising Coronavirus Cases

[TexasTowelie]

The weekend produced the same out-of-control case counts in the South and Southwest. The case increases cannot be explained by increased testing alone; on Friday one-quarter of Arizona tests were found positive, up from around 8 percent on Memorial Day, when the rise began. Florida had a record single-day case count on Friday, and about a quarter of Alabama’s total cases have come in the last week. Nationwide, on Saturday the U.S. registered the highest case numbers since May 1.

Take a look at the death counts, however, which have definitively slowed. Sunday we saw only 297 deaths, very low even when accounting for a slow reporting day. The seven-day rolling average is under 600 and headed down in a fairly linear fashion.

All the caveats about how positive tests are incomplete, how deaths are probably incomplete, etc., apply. But the trends are clear enough: case counts are rising, rapidly in some spots, and deaths are dropping. Deaths aren’t even rising all that much in states where cases are flying.

Now, this is perfectly consistent. Deaths are a lagging indicator: you catch the coronavirus, you get sick, for some that sickness progressively worsens, and then you die. But cases started to rise in these states as much as four weeks ago. The lag should have caught up to the extent that we’d at least see some rise in deaths. Yet we have not. And though I’m uncomfortable making any kind of prediction when it comes to this virus, falling deaths could or even should continue even as cases go up. Here’s why.

Read more: https://prospect.org/coronavirus/unsanitized-deaths-may-not-spike-despite-rising-cases/
(American Prospect)

[Nevilledog]

1. I think we should look at cause of death.

Huge numbers of pneumonia deaths, I'll betcha.

[soothsayer]

2. Monday numbers always lag

[Nevilledog]

4. No, I'm talking about lying about COVID-19 deaths.

Saw a post here a couple days about Florida. Deaths from COVID-19 was suspiciously low. However deaths from pneumonia were drastically higher when compared to previous years.

[Doodley]

7. Yes, this is true. A "mystery" illness, probably undiagnosed Covid-19, is

killing many people. However, conformed Covid cases, even in the elderly, are less deadly than they were.

[uponit7771]

17. Says who?! Deaths lag ... Hospitalization are through the roof in these places deaths usually follow

[Doodley]

20. Widely reported.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/20/coronavirus-may-have-caused-hundreds-of-additional-deaths-in-florida/

[uponit7771]

22. Ah, NY reported these deaths Florida won't

[riversedge]

3. His reasoning why reasons look plausible....

https://prospect.org/coronavirus/unsanitized-deaths-may-not-spike-despite-rising-cases/


...............There is some indication that positive tests are clustering around younger people. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said the median age for new cases was 37, and in Texas, Greg Abbott said a majority of new cases were from people under 30. Trust but verify, but it’s somewhat logical to believe that younger people are more restless and careless with social distancing measures.

We know that the COVID-19 mortality rate rises so much for older people and those who are immunocompromised. People at most risk certainly recognize those risks more than they did in, say, March, and are more likely to isolate and act accordingly. Even a small shift to younger carriers will translate into a lower overall mortality rate.

.........................While I don’t have much trust in Southern governors to respond to rising cases by mandating mask use or locking down parts of their states, they do have the ability to learn from the most egregious mistakes. Andrew Cuomo put sick people who tested positive back in nursing homes. I doubt we will see that replicated.

And we know a lot more about this disease from a medical standpoint than we did in March. There are more treatments that seem to work. Dexamethasone appears to reduce death in seriously ill patients. An osteoporosis drug is showing some promise. We know that intubation is not necessary in all patients with low oxygen levels. Doctors have been wrestling with this thing for three months and they’ve found a couple things that work, not well, but let’s say better. That could be pushing down mortality rates slightly as well.

None of this is to say that coronavirus is a benign disease. There’s clear evidence that its symptoms can linger in people for months, that it can cause severe lung scarring, and that even young people can die from it. But we’re talking about rates of death here. Tom Frieden, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, agrees that those death rates are likely to be lower.

[Baitball Blogger]

5. My county has had two deaths in as many days.

So, I would disagree.

[Doodley]

6. The virus is less lethal than it was. Before, elderly people would more likely die,

now they will more likely live.

[LisaL]

8. Says who?

[Doodley]

19. Matteo Bassetti, head of infectious diseases at San Martino hospital: Virus is weaker than it was.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/falling-death-rates-bring-hope-that-coronavirus-may-be-in-retreat-3j887s8pj

At one point intensive care doctors were having to choose who lived or died. Then weeks later Matteo Bassetti, the head of infectious diseases at San Martino hospital in Genoa, said that something had shifted.

“The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today,” he said late last month. He was not alone in this view.

[LisaL]

23. That dude is in Italy.

I don't know if it even true for Italy, but why exactly would you think that what he says applies to US?

[Doodley]

25. Viruses don't mutate to cross borders.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

24. That kind of thing tends to be fairly common with viruses.

When brand new, a bad one kills like crazy. Remember the beginning of AIDS? It certainly helped that we developed some decent treatments, but it simply seems less virulent than it was.

Smallpox is actually a classic example. Originally, variola major had a very high mortality rate, at least 30%. Those who survived were invariably scarred. But sometime in the late 19th century, a new strain showed up, variola minor. The mortality rate was about 1%, no scarring, and in general people weren't as extremely ill as with major. Had we not already developed the smallpox vaccine by then, the minor form would have pushed out the major form, and it would have become a relatively benign childhood illness.

If Covid-19 is getting less virulent, that's good news.

[Disaffected]

27. Pathogens that kill the host rapidly

don't have as much opportunity to multiply & spread compared to a mutated version that allows the host to live longer or perhaps not die at all. The mutated version therefore has an evolutionary advantage and will gradually dominate. This may explain, at least in part, why the death rates seem to be falling.

The most virulent pathogen is the one that is highly contagious but does not kill the host at all.

[uponit7771]

16. No, deaths lag peaks by 2 wks.

[Progressive dog]

9. From the CDC, week ending 6/19

Nationally, levels of influenza-like illness (ILI) and COVID-19-like illness (CLI) remain lower than peaks seen in March and April but are increasing slightly in some regions. The percentage of specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, also increased slightly from last week in some regions. Mortality attributed to COVID-19 decreased compared to last week but remains elevated above baseline and may increase as additional death certificates are processed.

[elleng]

10. 'And we know a lot more about this disease from a medical standpoint than we did in March.

There are more treatments that seem to work. Dexamethasone appears to reduce death in seriously ill patients. An osteoporosis drug is showing some promise. We know that intubation is not necessary in all patients with low oxygen levels. Doctors have been wrestling with this thing for three months and they’ve found a couple things that work, not well, but let’s say better. That could be pushing down mortality rates slightly as well.'

[Nictuku]

11. Most people I know who are 50+ are staying home

[mucifer]

12. Rachel's Arizona story was weird. The ICUs there are drowning in covid. But, if you

look at worldometers only 3 deaths in the past 24 hours in Arizona.

Something doesn't add up.

[uponit7771]

15. +1, deaths lag 2 - 3 weeks behind peaks of NY area is going to be repeated

[unblock]

13. One bit of help is that we know some of the most at-risk groups

They may be self-isolating more diligently than the less at-risk groups.

So the elderly hole themselves up in their homes while young people go out and party. They catch and spread the disease but few of them die from it.

But they keep the case count high, thereby keeping the elderly prisoners in their own homes, rather than working with us to keep the spreading rate down.

[uponit7771]

14. Deaths lag, hospitalization has gone up sharp usually deaths follow

[LizBeth]

18. I also think they have a better handle on it, understand it better, and treat better.

[greenjar_01]

21. Exactly right

They're learning how to treat more effectively.

[Rhiannon12866]

26. It's pretty scary when we're applauding "fewer deaths" as good news...