June 24th, 2020: Biden Leads Trump Beyond Margin of Error in All Battleground States but One

[berni_mccoy]

According to RCP's poll of polls (MoE reported are largest of polls taken):

Nationally:
Biden: +9.8 (MoE: 4.0)

WI:
Biden: +5.4 (MoE: 4.0)

FL:
Biden: +6.2 (MoE: 3.1)

MI:
Biden: +8.0 (MoE: 4.0)

PA:
Biden: +5.6 (MoE: 3.9)

NC:
Trump: +0.6 (MoE: 4.4)

AZ:
Biden: +4.0 (MoE: 4.0)

MN:
Biden: +16 (MoE: 4.0)

If you combine the above results with CNN's electoral map (https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/electoral-college-interactive-maps) It looks pretty good so far. We must campaign as if we are losing through, nothing can be taken for granted.

[hlthe2b]

1. What, did the pollster exclude Research Triangle in NC altogether?

Come on, NC

[dsc]

12. We have two Koch brother funded groups

and they each commissioned a poll that is in that average. I think Democrats will sweep the big three offices (governor, senate, president) but the last two will be narrow wins. Cooper should win going away but the other two races will almost certainly be close. This will be a slightly different version of 2008. In 2008, we won the senate seat in a rout, the governor's race in a narrow win, and the electoral votes in a win narrow enough that it would have qualified for a recount if the overall race had been close enough for those EV to matter. This time Cooper will win, quite possibly by double digits, Cunningham will likely have the narrow but clear win, and Biden a fairly narrow win even possibly a recount type win.

[beachbumbob]

2. Michigan is pretty much off the table for trump going forward and looks like

Pennsylvania will soon be in Biden's pocket as well. If Florida or Arizona continue to poll they way they have and COVID rampages both states, this pretty well dooms the GOP and trump. The question will then become HOW BIG is the landslide by Biden and democrats across America will be?

[berni_mccoy]

3. Texas is also weak for Trump... if it goes for Biden, Trump has no chance.

And that would be a humiliating defeat. I don't think Biden should focus too much energy there, but some would be good just for this reason.

[beachbumbob]

4. not impossible for Biden to win Texas, be better chance had O'Rourke set aside his ego and went

for a Senate seat.

[Johnny2X2X]

6. FL

If Biden wins FL it's over.

[SKKY]

15. +100 Florida is a leading indicator. If Florida turns blue, it's game over.

[Mike 03]

5. What's puzzling about Arizona is that Dem Mark Kelly leads Martha McSally

by 13 points so why isn't that reflected in Biden V. Trump? It seems like Joe should be leading by more points.

[lagomorph777]

10. Don't worry - Trump's super-spreader rally yesterday will kill off some more MAGATs.

That's going to help push AZ over the top.

[JonLP24]

11. Arizona voters are very independent

People elected Sinema but not Garcia.

[RhodeIslandOne]

25. Trump supporters hate McSally too.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

7. Trump will NOT take losing well....

He will inflict even more damage on the country from November thru January. He is that vindictive.

[durablend]

8. I wouldn't be surprised

If he loses he goes on an angry rampage that night and curses out the entire American populace on live TV. Who's going to stop him from doing it?

[Buckeye_Democrat]

9. All battleground states?

Nevada? Ohio?

Maybe even GA and TX, but I wouldn't bet on Biden winning in those states yet.

[dsc]

13. Leaving NV out is strange

but Ohio is an icing on the cake state at best.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

14. I'm not sure about that. I'd definitely bet on Ohio...

... over other states like Georgia and Texas, which I see mentioned quite a lot around here.

I even saw Utah brought up excitedly in 2016. Give me a break.

Edit: Actually, I'd bet on OH voting for Biden over NC too.

[Wounded Bear]

18. Not sure NV qualifies as a "swing" state...

270to win has it as "leans Dem."

I think most pundits put NV in Biden's camp.

Nothing wrong with padding the margin of victory, though.

[dsc]

20. It was one of Hillary's narrowest wins

in 2016. I also think Biden is very likely to win there as the state has firmly moved to the left but if we are putting NC and AZ on the swing state list, NV belongs there too.

[Wounded Bear]

21. Yeah, I'm hoping NC is right behind NV on the "swinging left" column...

[dsc]

22. I think the Cooper landslide is likely to help pull both Cunningham and Biden across the finish line

[Wounded Bear]

24. Snagging that Senate seat would go a long way...

looking more and more like the Senate might be within reach.

[dsc]

26. Tillis has shown himself to be a spinless weasel

and the only reason he won in the first place was the whole ebola bullshit in 2014.

[berni_mccoy]

16. As RCP calls them... not my categorization.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

19. No problem!

[berni_mccoy]

17. RCP has NV listed at Biden +4.0 (MoE: 3.2)

[Wounded Bear]

23. You have to like that Trump's path to 270 is actually shrinking...

He "won" on razor thin margins, heavily affected by voter suppression and too much voter apathy on the part of Dems/Indies.

We need a bluenami, no doubt kind of election.