The Economist: Forecasting the US elections

[brooklynite]

The Economist is analysing polling, economic and demographic data to predict America’s elections in 2020

Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college.
Chance of winning the electoral college

Joe Biden
Democrat
around 5 in 6
or 85%

Donald Trump
Republican
around 1 in 6
or 14%

Predicted range of electoral college votes (270 to win)

Joe Biden
Democrat
229-412

Donald Trump
Republican
126-309

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

THE ECONOMIST model gives Biden PA, MI, WI and FL. AZ, GA, NC and OH are tossups.

[denem]

1. Never ever count FL - it is too unreliable.

2018 - biggest blue wave in history since Watergate - Dems lose a Senator and the race for Governor. 2000, 2004, 2016 - FL has been cyanide for Democrats.

[Amishman]

3. FL polling is disrupted by snowbirds

Many keep their residency in FL for tax reasons, flee north during warm weather (and aren't polled in the ramp up before elections), only to return in late fall and vote. They tend to be older, whiter, wealthier, and more conservative.

[RhodeIslandOne]

4. It was rigged in 2018, no doubt

And Ron Desnatis will do it again.

Focus on AZ.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. There are no models that take into account how Trump might cheat

If this was totally legit, 83% seems right. It's not, so 50-50 is more like it despite the polls showing Biden with a huge lead.