Saudi Arabia's fear of Iran is driven less by sectarian than by domestic and geopolitical concerns.

[DTomlinson]

Think about it. Where is Saudi Arabia's Shia population heavily concentrated? Answer: its Eastern Province, bordering the other Gulf monarchies and directly across the Gulf from Iran.

More importantly for Saudi Arabia's economy, and one of the two foundations of its global importance (the other being the host of Mecca and Medina), where is the vast majority of the oil in Saudi Arabia located? Oh right, also the Eastern Province. Saudi Shia are a much larger part of the labor force in the Kingdom than Sunnis are - especially in the critical oil sector (of course, the largest part of the Saudi labor force are all of the basically slave workers from other countries). The implications are obvious.

What did the Iranian (Islamic) Revolution overthrow? An absolute monarchy (and key US ally in the Middle East). The motto of the Islamic Republic of Iran has not just been Death to Israel, or Death to America - but Death to Monarchs and oppressors of Muslims globally. The Islamic Revolution was not merely an Iranian one, or not meant to be, at least, and it was critically, not merely meant to inspire Shiites; it was PAN-ISLAMIC. In other words, Iran was, and is, a direct, brazen challenge to the Kingdom's global role as the Guardians or "Custodians" of the Cradle of Islam - Mecca and Medina. Needless to say, that freaked the House of Saud the fuck out!

Who else hates and fears Iran? The United States and Israel, for obvious reasons. But also, critically, the United Arab Emirates - who have also been THE key players within the Islamic world (along with Egypt) in fighting the Muslim Brotherhood - a Sunni Islamist movement that, whatever ties to jihadists that some parts or offshoots of it have had over the years, consistently promotes religious, social, and POLITICAL reform, to one extent or another. That's the real threat, particularly to absolute monarchies like the UAE or military dictatorships like Egypt.

The Arab Spring only served to confirm the worst fears of the despots of the Middle East - including those in Saudi Arabia. You see, the Muslim Brotherhood historically was SUPPORTED to one extent or another by the House of Saud, because they were seen as a useful Islamic counterbalance to secular pan-Arabist movements as exemplified by Egypt's Nasser regime (whom, not coincidentally, detained, tortured, executed, or exiled many Brotherhood figures - the last of whom were taken in by Saudi Arabia in the 60s and 70s and given important roles in the religious and educational apparatuses of the Saudi regime).

However, after it became clear over time that the Brotherhood could never be counted on for being loyal to the House of Saud, and that many Brotherhood or Brotherhood-influenced figures in Saudi Arabia were not afraid of the Islamic Revolution of Iran, but rather, felt INSPIRED by it as a good thing...well, the al-Saud's repression of the movement grew more intense over time. Today, Muhammad bin Salman is the most anti-Brotherhood Saudi leader ever; not coincidentally, MBS is also the most totalitarian Saudi leader in his violent intolerance of ALL dissent, be it secular or religious, and has a very close relationship with Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) of the UAE.

Which brings me back to the thread title, and the role of the US, Israel, the UAE, and Egypt in Saudi Arabia's fear of and rivalry with Iran. Crackdown on any Saudi Shiite "unrest" in the economically and geopolitically critical Eastern Province can always be justified to the US and its other regional allies as "countering Iranian expansionism."

Furthermore, the Wahhabi/Salafi religious elements in Saudi Arabia can be appeased on sectarian lines, and MBS can redirect their hatred of the US and Israel toward Iran and Shiite (and secular) Saudi dissidents. Divide and conquer, tale as old as time for tyrants.

The US government, especially under Trump, is obsessed with Iran. Israel is obsessed with Iran. The UAE is obsessed with Iran. And Saudi Arabia is obsessed with Iran. A shared enemy can bind people - and governments - together, regardless of differences among them.

I haven't even gotten into the Turkish Islamist (and allegedly "neo-Ottomanist" ) threat and challenge under Erdogan, or the vulnerable southern flank of Saudi Arabia in Yemen.....

.....or the Saudi and ESPECIALLY Emirati hatred of Qatar - who stubbornly insistent on acting independently from Saudi and Emirati policy, on independently dealing with Iran, Turkey, Israel and the Palestinians as the Qataris see fit, who host dissidents and exiles in Doha from other countries in the region, who have the critical US military base in the region (a base that the Saudis used to have and now would appear to very much want back), and who have the nerve to host al-Jazeera, a consistent middle finger to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Israel - and US policy in the region, especially under the current Trump regime.

Don't let the peddlers of sectarian narratives fool you. This is about dictators preserving their regimes, and all the wealth, power, and influence in the region - and around the world - that goes with it.

[DTomlinson]

1. Bump for discussion.