What kind of numbers might we be looking at of Covid deaths by early November?

[GreenPartyVoter]

My guess is for some people, no number would be large enough not to vote for Trump.

[soothsayer]

1. 20k/month probably but that could go up

[SoonerPride]

2. My guess is 250,000 to 300,000 deaths

trump and the GOP will be wiped out from coast to coast up and down all ballots.

The vast majority of the country will repudiate their lying, venality, incompetence, racism, and graft.

And once again dump a huge fucking mess in a Democratic president's lap to clean up.

[zipplewrath]

3. That's probably conservative

If things get worse, we could be pushing 400k.

[GreenPartyVoter]

7. Oh my heavens!

[GreenPartyVoter]

5. We still have election shenanigans to get past, though. Their insurance is baked in.

[Hortensis]

11. :) Don't count on it, appealing as it may be.

Last edited Thu Jun 25, 2020, 05:07 PM - Edit history (1)

Even incredibly stupid people have a way of getting serious about protecting themselves when frightened. I'm pretty sure one of the big factors in less than 6200 trumpsters showing up in OK City was because of the virus. Back in mid February many retirees here in Florida started avoiding restaurants and so on. And now young people are being told it come after them also.

This curve will flatten also, although perhaps not enough to keep Covid from continuing to rage nationally, at a lower level.

[ProfessorGAC]

13. +1

The laxity I see recently is based mostly on misinterpretation of reopening guidelines.
Too many think it means it's over.
But, when the numbers were scary, I saw almost nobody unmasked. Even at a gas station, those in & out were wearing them.
I don't know about inside because of pay at the pump.
Now, I see a minority wearing them. Not at the supermarket of pharmacy, but other places.

[Hortensis]

19. Here in our rural FL it's been maybe 1/2-2/3 unprotected

You clearly live in a less self-whacked area.

I forgot to mention the middle-aged demo who even here should finally be realizing they're in significantly more danger than they chose to believe.

How on earth are we going to protect those who finally realize they need to protect themselves and keep the economy from collapsing? Desperately behind the COVID curve with testing and contact tracing?

[ProfessorGAC]

22. NE Illinois Here

The epicenter of the state. Cook & the collar counties.
4th biggest county, 3rd in cases, dead heat for 2nd in deaths. We have 700k in our county. The other #2 in deaths has over 900,000.
Lots of folks complied for a long time.
Fear is a powerful motivator.

[Hortensis]

23. Ah, yes. :) Well, no doubt our interior wetlands area,

where you really are poor if you can't even afford an old mobile home hidden at the end of a sand drive in uncleared woods, will get there too. Now that it's coming for them.

[roamer65]

24. I think you are spot on.

[malaise]

4. His base is already turning against him

He is fucking history. He's going down but I want to see is a complete wipe-out.

[GreenPartyVoter]

6. I'd love to see that. On a fair playing field, we would.

[empedocles]

12. ' . . . a complete wipe-out', is so critical to the future. The Obama 2008 reform opportunity

faded with the economic crisis fade, within 2 years - limiting results for the next 6 Obama years.

[malaise]

16. This

The Con can't change so things will get worse for him.

[Hortensis]

8. Also, a trough caused by once again being more careful

would be styled as the pandemic nearing its end. As Trump always promised.

But they're losing credibility big time, all promises of it being over by Easter, Memorial Day, disappeared by summer blown as it sweeps into the south and rural areas across the nation.

[GreenPartyVoter]

9. Oh, I am sure

[qazplm135]

10. a fair assumption IMO...

The numbers will rise up above 1000 for awhile then back down under 1000 so estimate about 1000 a day for the rest of the time period. That's 30K a month, 120K for four months, so roughly 240-250 by November. Now if some of the states hit now do the right things, then maybe you slice off 10-30K off that amount. If they stick to things continuing to open, maybe add that much to it.

So I'd say a range from 200-210 to 280-290 depending on how states act between now and then.

What we can't necessarily predict is a new treatment(s) that might involve rising hospitalizations but decreases in deaths.

But we can't just focus on deaths. Yeah if I get CV, I might not die, but I might have damage that leads to an earlier than otherwise death 20 years from now.

[malaise]

17. In a few years there will be a major law suit

against the Federal and State governments.

[uponit7771]

25. +1, there should be a lot of red state governors ignored the CDC ...

[Thekaspervote]

14. I've heard Fauci say 300,000 by October

[marie999]

15. Flu season usually starts in October because it starts getting cold and more people stay indoors.

But with the pandemic, more people will be staying indoors more from now to then. This might start flu season earlier which means we might have the pandemic and flu season together for more than a month before the election. That will mean that hospital beds will be at a premium. This could be the worse time in America including the Spanish Flu and The Civil War for the number of deaths.

[GreenPartyVoter]

20. Shoot. Yes, have to factor in the flu.

[smirkymonkey]

21. Just in time for the election.

[2naSalit]

18. At least 320,000.