Why Biden's Lead Is Safer Than Clinton'sTrump won in 2016 because voters didn't like his opponent.

[applegrove]

Why Biden’s Lead Is Safer Than Clinton’sTrump won in 2016 because voters didn’t like his opponent. That’s no longer true.

By WILLIAM SALETAN at Slate

JUNE 26, 20206:41 PM

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/biden-leads-trump-polls-clinton-2016.html

"SNIP......

Former Vice President Joe Biden is thumping President Donald Trump in the polls. As of Friday, Biden led Trump by 10 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics national average and by six to nine points in each of four key states: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But many Democrats refuse to trust these numbers. They feel burned by 2016, when Hillary Clinton lost after leading in the polls for months. They’re afraid Trump will come back again.

That could happen. But it probably won’t, and one reason is that Biden isn’t Clinton. You can argue that public antipathy toward Clinton was sexist, based on lies, or propelled by the media. But that antipathy was a fact, and polls consistently documented it. Now polls are showing something else: On identical questions, posed by the same pollsters at the same stage of the campaign, Biden is doing far better than Clinton did. He’s more broadly liked and less broadly disliked than she was.

To measure the difference, I chose a single question—whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidate—and selected pollsters who tested both Clinton’s favorable rating in June 2016 and Biden’s favorable rating in June 2020 (or, in one case, the end of May). Six pollsters met this standard: Monmouth University, QuinnipiacUniversity, the Economist (YouGov), Fox News, ABC News and the Washington Post, and NBC News and the Wall Street Journal. By comparing their 2020 numbers to their 2016 numbers, we can measure Biden against Clinton.

Clinton’s scores were atrocious. In all six polls, most respondents viewed her unfavorably. In the five polls that reported degrees of antipathy, 39 percent to 49 percent viewed her very unfavorably. Trump’s scores were even worse. But if you’re wondering why so many people who disliked Trump voted for him anyway, a big reason is that they didn’t like the alternative.

.....SNIP"

[ananda]

1. Agree. Biden is very well liked.

nt

[Iliyah]

2. Russia interference with the help of republicans, etc. . .

cheating and stealing was the component, i.e, ECs, and nothing will change my mind about that.

[GulfCoast66]

4. Well if nothing will change your mind then your mind is closed

And I am probably wasting my time.

The Russians played up the dissension in the Democratic Party plus the general dislike of Hillary on Social Media to try to depress Democratic voting. That’s it. Nothing else.

None of those dynamics are here now.

Can we still lose? Of course. But it won’t be Putin doing it.

[Laelth]

3. Good, factual analysis. Recommended. n/t

-Laelth

[egduj]

5. How can you not like Joe.

[jcgoldie]

6. Hillary has no penis.

...end of analysis.

[onetexan]

7. Much as i adore Hillary and she is IMO unquestionably the most gifted and talented woman in politics

EVER, she (being tied to Bill's legacy) carried alot of baggage & bad blood w/ the Repugs. I believe that contributed to her losing voters. BUT with the electoral college factor, combined w/ foreign meddling in 2016, the election was stolen.

Joe, OTOH, is well liked and respected on both sides for the most part. He is humble, empathetic, highly experienced and pragmatic. He has broad appeal across all demographics. Hence why we're seeing him winning in the polls, particularly those in swing states.

[MoonlitKnight]

8. This section of the article is encouraging

“ Among independents—the voters least captive to partisan loyalties and therefore most likely to vote based on feelings about the candidates—the gap is even bigger. In each of the five polls that reported results for this group, Clinton’s unfavorable rating topped 60 percent. Biden’s unfavorable rating among independents ranged from 42 to 54. On average, his net favorable rating in this group was 22 points better than hers. Clinton’s very-unfavorable rating among independents averaged 50 percent; Biden’s was 28 percent. That’s a big chunk of independents who deeply disliked Clinton but not Biden.”

[abqtommy]

9. tRUMP lost the vote in 2016 but won the ratfucking...

[delisen]

10. More propaganda. Clinton way ahead in mid october

The denial of Putin effect on the election outcome is alive and well this year as Mueller report stated it would be.. Slate is. being played and the Clinton flawed candidate meme is alive and well here too.

Denial can only help the corrupt as it did in 2016.

[sfstaxprep]

11. Sure, Putin Had An Impact

But part of the reason he was able to was that the race was close, AND the fact a lot of Americans disliked Hillary. It doesn't matter how undeserved it was, it existed.

Biden is coming in with much less "baggage" with the public at large, and it will be extremely difficult to make people suddenly question or dislike him at this point. He has a solid record, with far less controversy than Hillary did in her lifetime.

[Ms. Toad]

12. Enjoy your repeat of 2016.

The details may vary, but this is the same kind of arrogant certainty that helped Trump win in 2016.