Only two US states are reporting a decline in new coronavirus cases.

[elleng]

Only two US states are reporting a decline in new coronavirus cases compared to last week: Connecticut and Rhode Island.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/28/health/us-coronavirus-sunday/index.html?

[ProfessorGAC]

1. Questioning Something In The Article

Says Illinois is one of the 36 states rising.
Yes, if one looks day to day, and ignores the drops.
I looked at Worldometer nearly daily.
I see essentially flat all through June. Dipped from beginning to middle rose back to where it was the second week of June.
I'd say Illinois is more in the other 12 states, neither rising nor falling further. Positivity yesterday was 2.6. It's never been below 2.2. Had a high this past week of 2.8.
Lumping them in with FL or Tx, who saw positivity go from 7 to nearly 15 in 10 days seems like sloppy analysis.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

2. 7- to 14-day averages seem more useful, to me

I'm not a statistician. Graphs of running averages help me visualize how an area is trending. When I look at such a graph for the U.S. overall, it seems like we don't have waves, just a rise to a plateau that we can't seem to leave.

[ProfessorGAC]

3. Makes Sense

I would do that. And one of my advanced degrees is in statistics!
I forgot to post the link earlier.
Take a look and see if eyeball averaging wouldn't look essentially flat.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/illinois/

[Hermit-The-Prog]

4. 'eyeball averaging' does look flat

Thanks for the link. Substituting [K]entucky into that link yields lower numbers but more troubling curves.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/kentucky

If I take off my glasses and step back a bit, the daily cases graph for Illinois becomes a fuzzy-topped hump with a decent slope on either side. That little uptick on the right would only be worrisome if it's the start of a new trend. Time will reveal that.

Changing the scale to 'logarithmic' really flattens the total cases curve.

Until enough people are convinced that the virus needs to be deprived of hosts in which to replicate, we're not going to get these graphs back to near zero. A second wave will simply be added on top of the first.

[ProfessorGAC]

5. We're Going Into Phase 4

Started yesterday.
My biggest concern is that 2 weeks ago, I saw 95%+ compliance with masks.
Still high, but seems lower at supermarket.
Much worse seeing folks going in & out of liquor and hardware stores.
I'm worried about increasing laxity.
Illinois' positivity rate has been 2.5%, on average, +/- 0.3 for a couple weeks.
2.8% Friday, 2.6% yesterday. But, 2.2% on Wednesday and 2.4% Tuesday.
Only 4 days, but seems fairly steady.
Fingers crossed.

[Midnight Writer]

6. Yes, I am in downstate Illinois, and I am seeing lots of social gatherings and very few masks.

Worse, I talked to a fellow who has been cowed from wearing a mask because people he knew were teasing him when he did.

I've got an occasional stink eye myself, but nothing overt.

[progree]

7. 7-day moving average of IL Daily New Cases: UP 21% since June 18.

June 18: 602, June 27: 730.

Take a look and see if eyeball averaging wouldn't look essentially flat.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/illinois/

Not to me it don't.

IL might want to rethink the Phase 4 bubbly-boo happy talk. And no, finger-crossing won't do it.

Incidentally, by same metric, U.S. overall is +77% from around a June 10 low.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=2525351

Looks like there's trouble in paradise.

[ProfessorGAC]

8. Take Another Look

Hit the 7 day moving average button. I didn't see that before. It's a nice feature.
Here's what the moving averages show.
June 1, 1,325. Yesterday 733. June 16, 637. So, 16% in 4 days. That's, quite a bit. Given the improvement compared to April & May, I'm a bit inured to smaller numbers, I guess.
It actually was very flat or descending for 3 weeks in June. That flip at the end is concerning.
As to your +77, over that same time period, Illinois is down. It shows 915 on June 9.
So, will have to watch what happens as Phase 4 kicks in.
BTW: Illinois is still following the CDC phase model. Pritzker isn't pulling a DeSantis or an Abbott.

[progree]

9. Of course I saw IL fell substantially until 9 days ago. I don't need to "take another look"

But given that the 7 day average is 21% higher on June 27 than 9 days before is not flat to me. Yes, it's concerning. I'm not saying its an astronomical rise, nor am I implying that it's anywhere near the amount of the drop over the preceding month.

As to your +77, over that same time period, Illinois is down.

And?? The only point I was making is that upturns lately are not just a Illinois problem, but 36 states are showing a mild or strong upturn in their 7 day moving averages over at least a week.

In Minnesota, we're having the same problem as IL - a mild upturn in the last week or two, about 13.8% in the 7-day moving average, no doubt caused by the increasing openings of establishments June 1 and June 10 (in Minnesota, I have no idea what IL is doing). A lot of people in MN want to deny the increases because, well, it's human nature I guess, and one can always say that it's nowhere near as bad as it was, so OK, lets rev up the bars to 80% capacity. Human nature I guess.

[ProfessorGAC]

11. I Meant Nothing By It

Why would take it personally?
I just thought it was interesting.
Forget I mentioned it.

[uponit7771]

10. Ssssssssssshit