Looks like CV19 acts like a nuclear reaction after certain amount of population in an area gets it.

[uponit7771]

Looks like CV19 acts like a nuclear reaction after certain amount of population in an area gets it.

After a critical mass of infections there's a huge explosion of cases that can't be stopped by low level NPI (non pharmaceutical intervention)

Bottom line the higher the number of CV19 cases in a given area the more restrictive and active the NPI has to be to get the spread to stop faster.

In NY the cases didn't start falling until after weeks of near total "lock down", these half measures of closing bars etc doesn't look like it's going to stop anything soon.

Anyone else thinking they want this stupid herd immunity without telling us?

what say you?

thx in advance for any input

[BannonsLiver]

1. I think we should all check out of the Holiday Inn Express and leave it to actual scientists

[uponit7771]

3. We agree, just not the head scientist in the US who keep double talking vaccines instead of using

... what other countries have used to defeat CV19.

The fact we're not going to a working playbook to defeat CV19 doesn't give me too much confidence in the head government US scientist here.

The talking head doctors that aren't MAGAts are more credible than the agency doctors and the heads of the government here in the US.

[BannonsLiver]

10. Maybe you could put together a list of approved scientists

[forthemiddle]

36. What's going to happen when other Countries that are doing OK now, open up?

Do they plan to stay partially closed until the mythical vaccine appears?

I hear how great New Zealand is doing, but will they honestly stay closed off forever? The same goes for other countries?

You said other countries are defeating the virus, are they really, or just delaying the inevitable?

My fear is that this virus is here, and as soon as given the chance it will spread with abandon.

We should be wearing masks, and social distancing, but this damn virus is still there.

Is Hawaii still quarantine visitors? How long can that theoretically last? What happens when they allow visitors?

This whole thing is a clusterf**ck, and it’s not going to end anytime soon. What’s the answer?

[uponit7771]

37. If there's a high staffed, accurate, penetrating sentinel process that involves a federated TTI ...

... then there's no need to shut down.

They can get close to normal, just test those who don't need to be tested

[StarryNite]

9. I would be good with that if the actual scientists were being listened to

and their directions followed by tRump and the governors who are so far ignoring them. Unfortunately they aren't and it's up to us to try to figure out how to keep our families safe. I'm in Arizona and our governor has offered no real leadership. He's a coward. He just recently gave the power to the mayors to implement mandatory mask wearing, etc. But some of our communities have chosen to do nothing.

[BannonsLiver]

11. True, but that has very little to do with the OP

And DU expert’n.

[Turbineguy]

2. They called Chenobyl a

"prompt critical excursion".

[uponit7771]

4. lol, was that in the HBO series? I wouldn't doubt it, the US is being ran by the first set of ...

... bureaucrats from that series; they didn't want to face reality.

[Turbineguy]

6. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

did an excellent reportage of it about 6 months after the event. I think that's where I got the term.

[ProfessorGAC]

12. There's A Terrific 1Hour Doc

Can be seen on AHC. Name of the series is "As We Watched".
I think there are 6 or 8 episodes. LA Riots, OJ, Chernobyl, 9/11, Jonestown, etc.
Those are the 5 I know for sure.
The one on Chernobyl is really good. Decent detail on what they did wrong.

[hunter]

8. This virus is worse than Chernobyl.

A lot worse.

[uponit7771]

25. 👍

[Initech]

27. It's more like a real life Skynet.

[cemaphonic]

23. Unrequested fission surplus

[Lucinda]

5. I wouldnt be surprised!

[Hugin]

7. Any explosion...

A critical mass is caused when a reaction produces a product capable of causing another identical reaction. This would be an R0 of 1. Any reaction capable of causing more than one additional reaction is super critical. With an R0 of around 3.5 (the last I heard) maybe more, COVID is super critical.

That's why I say the COVID R0 is explosive.

[ProfessorGAC]

14. An Explosion Is An Explosion

But, some are worse than others. This is one of the worse explosions.

[Hugin]

16. It's basic high school physics...

Last edited Sun Jun 28, 2020, 05:09 PM - Edit history (1)

Why am I not surprised these Republican goons don't get it? Then, they were out trying to repeatedly get oblong orbs through a goal and expecting different outcomes every time. Attributing their alternating successes to some mystical magical intervention.

And, they say I'm crazy.

[uponit7771]

18. The Ro of CV19 is now 5.7 median (link)

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

[Hugin]

20. Thanks for refreshing me, uponit7771.

Very scary. Indeed, terrifying.

[Ms. Toad]

32. That's the unmitigated R0

The R0 in Ohio ranges from .85 to around 2.0. The effective R0 depends on the mitigation employed to minimize its spread. The unmitigated R0 is what it will be if we do nothing to contain it.

[uponit7771]

38. Correct, the area's relative Ro may be lower if there's proper NPI being implemented but Trump is

... intimating in anyway possible not to implement simple interventions.

I don't believe MAGA Cultist will go back to wearing masks now, that would be admitting their lord and savior Donald Trump is wrong.

[Ms. Toad]

40. they never did wear masks.

At least not in our area and (reading between the lines) their threats were significant enough that (1) Acton resigned and (2) before that DeWine assessed that the risk of violence was more significant than the threat of mask slackers spreading COVID. I think he is regretting that - but is probably rethinking it in counties/regions where R0 is significantly greater than 1.

[Wellstone ruled]

13. Well,

the Math Wizards predicted what we are seeing and how this Virus Spreads in the coming two months.

John Hopkins as well as the University of Washington's Modeling have been scary predictive.

We are now seeing what was the story in Sweden. Our GOP friends(not) have been using this model simply because they do not know how to Govern.

[uponit7771]

19. +1, and Sweden's experiment did NOT help its economy. I read an article where multiple studies

... of low NPI did not help economies during pandemics

[Wellstone ruled]

29. I do hope folks understand

why all these Mathematical Models are so important. There are so many variables with this Virus,mutations seem to be what the change agent is,and with each small mutation,it seems to Infect people of different ages as well as producing different but similiar symptoms.

And yes,Sweden admitted it screwed up royally,and there Economy took one hell of a whack. Herd Immunity is just a theory and we now have the evidence as to it's failure well documented.

[Thekaspervote]

15. JMHO it's the exponential growth. With so many infected it would seem to be like a nuclear reactor

Italy is finding the virus is weakening in recent studies. SARS, but in particular MERS weakened over time.

Link to tweet

?s=21

Link to tweet

?s=21

Please don’t anyone get me wrong. It kills without compunction. Everyone needs to stay safe

[uponit7771]

21. Unnnn, what about the spread in the US? Those guys are wearing masks, the cities where BLM protest

... were en masse aren't showing surges because of masks

[Initech]

31. Italy and the UK have also made similar claims.

I've also seen reports that the virus is losing efficacy and could die out without a vaccine. Of course like anything I'll believe it when I see it.

[Doodley]

17. The way to control it after a certain point is to test EVERYONE. Isolate all those affected, even if

it is millions - mandate it and pay them to quarantine, also mandate social distancing and mask wearing. Two weeks pass and still many people will have if - the false negative, those who didn't isolate as they should, those who refuse the test. Repeat testing EVERYONE and isolate. Next move to contact tracing of any new cases. To do this, you have to have a political will in place, to get the resources and the manpower to do it. That is something we lack.

[uponit7771]

22. +1, that's the active NPI cities have to enact after a big outbreak. We have to isolate to bring ...

... down infection rates quickly the people in charge remind me of the bureaucrats in charge of Chernobyl at first.

[marie999]

24. I am not a scientist. All my science courses in college were for the non-science majors.

I have been reading about Covid-19 and what real scientists have been saying. I believe we have reached the tipping point. I have been posting that by the end of this year we will have 1,390,000 deaths from Covid-19 and flu. You have to add the flu because with both of them we will run out of ventilators. I am seriously thinking that my count may be overly optimistic. I sincerely hope I am wrong. It seems like every day the more I read about what people are doing the less I believe the majority of people will do what needs to be done. As I have written before, the quotes that more than one person has said, One death is a tragedy, one million deaths is a statistic. Too many people are now not reacting to death counts.

[uponit7771]

26. I think they'll go back to lockdown SIP before 250,000 that would be horrible

[Ms. Toad]

28. That's the nature of exponential growth.

Ifs fine until all of a sudden it is not.

[Tipperary]

30. Wth is NPi?

Never yet heard of any “pharmaceutical “ intervention that works.

Please elaborate,

[Ms. Toad]

33. Shelter in place works-

It is what got Ohio down below an R0 of 1.0.

Unfortunately, DeWine caved to the mask-slackers - and now we have several counties with an R0 approaching 2.0

[uponit7771]

35. "non pharmacological interventions"

[Demsrule86]

34. Herd immunity was a disaster in Sweden...they could lose half their population before this is over.

[Demovictory9]

39. kick