Map from NY Times showing more details of cases; check out the cluster info

[captain queeg]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

I knew prisons are hot spots, seems axiomatic. But check out how bad it is. I think correctional facilities are rolled up into state statistics so it could skew things quite a bit

[onecaliberal]

1. People go in and out of prisons. They're going to spread. Guards, teachers, doctors.

[Ms. Toad]

2. The map itself is misleading

It treats a two-week jump from 0 new cases to 2 new cases the same way it treats a 2-week jump from 40 cases to 131. The most severe counties in Ohio (with R0>2) in which DeWine is working with local health departments to consider shutting down, mask requirements etc. are marked as middle-rising. A couple of counties up north with so few cases that there is little risk at all are marked as flaming red.

The two correctional facilities in Ohio were quite a while ago. Currently there are 124 inmates state-wide who are positive, with another 318 "pending results"

[uponit7771]

5. So you're thinking it should marked relative to number of cases & population vs just a simple ...

... percentage uptick?

Looks like some counties have 50 people and if 5 people get the virus the NYT shoots through the roof and is marked red.

If the US had a true sentinel process we'd know, I think 50% of America would get a test bi week if just asked to and we had the capacity like NK where the accuracy is high and the test are less than 10 minutes.

President Pinsol thinks testing infects people so we're screwed in that area, we're not doing too much different in the US than we did in 1918

[Ms. Toad]

6. I'm not sure how to make it.

Maybe a combination of per capita infections + rate of increase. R0 would be most accurate, but I don't think most states calculate that on a county -by county basis.

But a county that has 25,000 people, and which doubles its number of infections (from 1 to 2), shouldn't be marked the same way a county with 25,000 people which doubles its number of cases from 1000 to 2000.

Pat of the problem is the lack of s reference for how prevalent the virus is. The other is predicting exponential growth based on a handful of cases. When 1000 cases double to 2000 in two weeks, that is much more likely to be a true reflection of how quickly the infection is growing, than when 1 case turns into 2.

[SeattleVet]

3. John Oliver had a good segment on coronavirus and prisons recently

Well worth the 18.5 minutes!

[MerryBlooms]

7. Thanks for sharing this powerful segment. I know Oliver has a huge following...

Maybe this video can help our folks in these facilities. I have a nephew who did 10 years - drug related. He was released to a transition home March 5, for 30 days. It took over 6 months to even find a transition home for him because the criteria is very high, plus, there just aren't any available. Calling supposed transition help offices... We found those are mostly for women prisoners. It tuned into a nightmare of reaching out daily and grabbing any thread we could find. We were worried sick about him for 10 years, and then the virus hit, which caused even more stress and anxiety. The week after his release, the prison started reporting virus cases, which meant the virus was being transmitted before the reports.

These institutions need to release many people, And they have to help transition these folks into housing more than they do. There is a huge lack of funding in all areas in the prisons and jails, and transition funding is critical, especially now.

[lostnfound]

4. Amazing depth in stats and clusters. Worth thorough look at clusters in each state

Amazing how many places have had more than 50 cases.
Worth zeroing in on your state.