Trafalgar Group poll shows Trump leading slightly in Wisconsin. Talk me down.

[Music Man]

The same outfit has Biden leading by only one point in Michigan this week (whereas most other pollsters have Biden well ahead in Michigan): https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/

Before anyone dismisses it outright as a conservative pollster with a C-rating from 538, Trafalgar gained notoriety for being one of the few to correctly predict Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016, as well as a few other state-level polls, such as Florida. According to my reading, they are designed to use questions to get at voters' psychology as well as short polls to incorporate more people who might not otherwise participate in the process.

I dread another scenario where the polls we've been taking as gospel turn out to be wrong, and there are outfits like Trafalgar who apparently have something unbeknownst to us figured out. I can't live through another election night like 2016 again.

Is there something in Trafalgar's work this year that is skewing it toward Trump? Anybody smarter at statistics than I care to take a whack at this? It is wild to me that some polls can show Biden leading in Wisconsin by 10, while ones like this show him losing by one or two. *Somebody* is wrong.

[tman]

1. Until recently Trump has been leading in WI all year.

WI will be razor close, as will ALL the other swing states.

The end.

[elleng]

2. Wisconsin lost it's mind some years ago;

I can't explain it, but I've never spent time there.

I'm more optimistic about Michigan, suspect Biden campaign will do a good job there; hope I'm not wrong. Hope they take cues from Debbie Dingel.

[diva77]

15. One of the reasons is they gave up hand counted paper ballots at the precincts in exchange for

computerized voting machines/tabulators when they took the HAVA moolah.

[elleng]

16. EVIDENCE, not a reason.

[diva77]

17. just a quick search - found that repugs controlled the WI legislature after the 2010 census, they

redrew the legislative & Congressional districts to benefit themselves (shocking!!).

https://www.gazettextra.com/opinion/letters/your-views-change-redistricting-to-give-wisconsin-fair-maps/article_ebfab8a5-ddc2-5e7f-907c-448a560995e2.html
Your Views: Change redistricting to give Wisconsin fair maps

Jun 24, 2020


SNIP
One of the fundamental principles of a functioning democracy is that voters get to decide who represents them.

The GOP controlled Wisconsin legislature has flipped that on its head, so that now partisan politicians pick and choose their voters for maximum advantage.

States must redraw legislative and Congressional districts every 10 years to reflect results of the census. In 2011, Republicans controlled state government and drew maps that benefit them. Also that year, Republican state lawmakers took the unusual step of signing a legal agreement in which they promised to not comment publicly about redistricting discussions while new GOP-friendly maps were being drafted.

As a result of this redistricting practice (also called gerrymandering), in 2018 Democrats won 53% of all the Assembly votes cast statewide while coming away with only 36% of the seats. Another way to look at it is that Republicans enjoy a built-in 64-35 advantage in the partisan makeup of the 99 Assembly districts.
SNIP

ETA: Another source on WI gerrymandering
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/gerrymandering-meets-coronavirus-wisconsin
=======

a lot of voting machine info. is gone or much harder to find now online; will require more time to provide more EVIDENCE!!!

[jorgevlorgan]

3. theres been two or three polls showing it neck and neck in michigan too

Having a midwestern VP would be a very good idea. Tammy Baldwin and Gretchen Whitmer are my preferences from the shortlist.

[RandySF]

4. It's one poll to add to the average

[Phoenix61]

5. Liars, damn liars, and statisticians. nt

[StevieM]

6. They weren't right for most of the 2016 race, but then Comey turned things upside down at the end.

[Midnight Writer]

7. The Wisconsin political structure has been infiltrated by the Kochs.

The Republican Party there became a subsidiary of Koch Enterprises, and during the Scott Walker years, held nearly total power in Wisconsin.

There's been a backlash, with good people standing up, and now a Democrat Governor, but a lot of malignancy is already in places of power.

[Doreen]

8. So, the few who did get 2016 prediction right obviously knew

something about the Russian interference and other illegal things being done at the time for trump to steal his way in.

How many times do we need to remind the nation..the world that trump DID NOT WIN?

[VMA131Marine]

9. The Trafalgar sample skews much older than the other Wisconsin polls

If you did into the details of the poll, 35+% of the respondents to the Trafalgar poll are 65 and over. In the other polls I checked, the percentage is more like 25-28%. The older sample is going to skew more Republican and likely explains much of the discrepancy between Trafalgar and other recent polls.

[Poiuyt]

10. The last three reputable polls for WI had Biden leading outside the margin of error

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/presidential-polls/wisconsin

The trend is definitely moving in Biden's favor. If we see more polls moving in the direction of trump like Trafalger, then I'd worry.

[still_one]

11. Without knowing anything about this pollster, it shows even. What I find strange about this poll is

7.5% are saying a third party. That makes no sense at all to me

[Jake Stern]

12. Hear me out: that might be a good thing

Honestly it makes me more concerned when Biden is leading by double digits. Those are the kind of numbers that make people complacent and more likely to say “Biden’s got it in the bag, he don’t need my vote”.

[still_one]

13. We should assume we are behind regardless what the polls indicate

[SiliconValley_Dem]

14. you crack me up

[budkin]

18. Are you just looking for stuff to freak out about

Don’t pay attention to the polls and keep focused on the end goal.

[RDANGELO]

19. They are a robocall pollster. 538 rates them as a c- .

[JI7]

20. Why waste time on things like this ? Even if polls had Biden leading everyone STILL has to vote

instead of wanting to be convinced about where the polls are how about working to make sure they go in the direction you want when the time comes to vote ?

[Awsi Dooger]

21. Females don't participate in standard percentage in Wisconsin

That is part of the problem. I've never studied it but always noted it. Females are typically 53-54% of the vote during presidential years. In Wisconsin it was 51% in 2016. During midterms females drop to roughly 51% nationally. It was 49% in Wisconsin 2018.

When we are losing 2% from the normal gender breakdown it makes sense the state will be different than conventional wisdom allows. After all, whites are roughly 85% of the vote in Wisconsin. It was 86% in 2016 and 83% in 2018. If we can hold it to 83% again in 2020 I think Biden is in decent shape, but any poll asserting Biden well ahead simply makes no sense whatsoever.

I always go with demographic realities and associated logic above polls. For example, anyone actually believing Biden leads by 6 points in Florida is a nutcase. Try to imagine those Florida results rolling in, with the Democrat 6 points ahead. What Florida is that?

Biden is in good shape but I make no apologies for being incredibly nervous that we can actually defeat an incumbent. Trump has to continue to keep talking and therefore losing it himself.

[obamanut2012]

22. so much concern

is stressful for you.