The incubation period for COVID is about two weeks.

[brooklynite]

The George Floyd/BLM protests were at their peak three weeks ago.
The COVID rate in NYC continues to drop.

Discuss...

[OnlinePoker]

1. I posted this picture in another thread

I'm not sure where this took place, but virtually every person visible had a mask on. I don't know if that was the same in NYC, but it could be one reason. Also, just because there isn't an increase in recorded cases doesn't mean there aren't a lot of people who are asymptomatic walking the streets right now as a result of the protests.

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_TF0z_62fxcTQa2ktKI2FgXU_8Q=/0x0:3000x1997/1200x675/filters:focal%281342x1032:1822x1512%29/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/66876517/GettyImages_1216237096.0.jpg

[soothsayer]

4. True, but nyc does a lot of testing

They’re not seeing a bump

[Bernardo de La Paz]

6. Trim your links

Trim it to this: https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/66876517/GettyImages_1216237096.0.jpg to get this:

[dem4decades]

2. Masks, social distance and being outside sure makes a difference.

[LiberalArkie]

15. And sunlight kills it pretty fast.

[brewens]

3. That does sound good for at least outdoor activities not being dangerous. Even on my daily walk,

I'll cross the road if someone is coming toward me on the sidewalk. I'm not especially worried I'd get it just passing by someone else out walking, but it's no real effort, so why not? I would enjoy a concert in the park or something soon, if I'm convinced it's safe.

[Merlot]

5. I do the same thing - giving people distance when walking outside. It's just courtesy.

And really, a little courtesy goes a long way right now. I walk about 5 miles every day in my neighborhood. Usually about 60% were wearing masks, but all doing social distancing. This week I've noticed mask wearing has gone way up, almost 90%.

Wouldn't it be nice to find out that with masks and social distancing we could have outdoor concerts, go hiking, go the the beach, etc?

[Bernardo de La Paz]

7. Yes, or I hold a breath as I pass them, til 15 feet for walkers, & til 50 feet for runners. . . . nt

[Squinch]

13. I keep going back to the story of the hairdressor who had covid and passed it to

her colleague. Between the two of them, they served about 150 customers and exposed something like 300 others. But no customers got sick because customers and the two hairdressers were masked.

Close and prolonged contact, and no one got sick.

[Vogon_Glory]

16. I'd noticed the reports about being outdoors.

I confess to going bare-faced when I take my daily stroll in my suburban neighborhood, but I do try to keep at least 20 feet away from my fellow-strollers.

I mask up for shopping or the post office.

[coti]

8. It's even shorter than that- people have been getting sick in four or five days, sometimes quicker.

[denem]

11. Exactly right.

[Squinch]

9. We may have had a little blip. One day the new cases in NY went back up over 1000.

We were dropping like a stone and last week we held steady rather than continuing to drop. If the same happens this week we will know it was due to the re-opening activities rather than the protests.

But even if we did have a temporary increase, it was very small.

[denem]

10. The median incubation period for COVID is 4-5 days,

although some remain asymptomatic for a longer period.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html

[BumRushDaShow]

12. The Philly Inquirer had an article a couple days ago with some postulations

COVID-19 has not surged in cities with big protests, but it has in states that reopened early. Here are some possible reasons.

by Marie McCullough, Posted: June 27, 2020



The United States may be seeing the most compelling evidence yet that the best way to stop the coronavirus is also the most disruptive and difficult: Stay home and avoid other people. At first glance, the evidence seems conflicting. States in the South and West that reopened their economies early and with few precautions are now grappling with huge surges in daily case counts, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Yet Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and other cities across the country have not seen the sharp, sustained spikes that were expected after hundreds of thousands of people gathered for protests against police brutality. Daily demonstrations, some capped by riots, began about a week after George Floyd was killed by Minneapolis police on May 25. The maximum incubation period for COVID-19 — the time between getting infected and showing symptoms — is believed to be two weeks, so any fallout should be clear by now.

The leading theory to explain this paradox is that being outdoors is safer than indoors. Numerous studies support this. Japanese researchers, for example, found the odds of indoor transmission of the coronavirus were about 19 times greater than in the open air. But a new study funded by the National Bureau of Economic Research offers another explanation: The protests prompted an overall increase in people staying home, which mostly offset any impact of transmission among protesters.

/snip

“It’s entirely possible that protesters have gotten COVID-19” while demonstrating, Friedson said. “That’s a question for contact tracers. But other things — going to bars, seeing friends, not wearing masks — also increase the spread.” Those “other things” are the main driver of the renewed outbreaks in states including Arizona, Nevada, Oklahoma, Texas, Mississippi and Florida — states that had largely reopened. While expanded testing accounts for some of the soaring case numbers, the proportion of positive tests suggests increased transmission. In Arizona, 23% of tests over the last week came back positive. Several governors have suspended further reopenings or reimposed some restrictions.

More: https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-no-spike-cities-despite-protests-big-surge-in-states-that-reopened-20200627.html

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

14. In a few more days people who attended the Trump events

in Tulsa and Phoenix will start being sick. They were inside, shoulder to shoulder, and almost entirely without masks. Huge difference.

[Quixote1818]

17. Most people get sick in about 4 to 5 days. Two weeks is the extreme. nt