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The white-collar revolt against Trump is peaking
CNN
Analysis by Ronald Brownstein
Updated 7:14 AM ET, Tue June 30, 2020
From his open defiance of public health officials when holding rallies to his increasingly explicit embrace of White racial backlash, President Donald Trump has set a course for his reelection campaign that could produce the GOP's largest deficit in the history of modern polling among well-educated White voters.
Relative to other Republicans, Trump has underperformed with those voters since he began his first presidential campaign in 2015. And by flouting science and openly inflaming racial tensions, he is now directly centering the campaign debate on two of the principal dynamics that have alienated those voters from him. That shows signs of accelerating the shift of these voters -- who had never backed a Democratic presidential nominee in polling before 2016 -- away from the GOP to an unprecedented new level.
"I don't know who he is talking to," said Steve Schale, a veteran Florida-based Democratic consultant who now runs Unite the Country, a super PAC supporting presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. "I guess at this point their theory of the case is this whole thing becomes a complete race to the bottom, and it becomes a low turnout [election] all about their base. If you look at suburban women, for example ... is he talking to them?"
By contrast, although the widespread concern in Black and Hispanic communities both about George Floyd's death and the disproportionate burden they have faced from the coronavirus outbreak could increase their turnout from 2016's tepid level, so far most 2020 polls have not shown Biden improving on Hillary Clinton's margin among them. Trump, meanwhile, maintains a consistent lead among White voters without college degrees, though almost all surveys show his margins with the women in that group narrowing substantially since 2016.
Relative to other Republicans, Trump has underperformed with those voters since he began his first presidential campaign in 2015. And by flouting science and openly inflaming racial tensions, he is now directly centering the campaign debate on two of the principal dynamics that have alienated those voters from him. That shows signs of accelerating the shift of these voters -- who had never backed a Democratic presidential nominee in polling before 2016 -- away from the GOP to an unprecedented new level.
"I don't know who he is talking to," said Steve Schale, a veteran Florida-based Democratic consultant who now runs Unite the Country, a super PAC supporting presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. "I guess at this point their theory of the case is this whole thing becomes a complete race to the bottom, and it becomes a low turnout [election] all about their base. If you look at suburban women, for example ... is he talking to them?"
By contrast, although the widespread concern in Black and Hispanic communities both about George Floyd's death and the disproportionate burden they have faced from the coronavirus outbreak could increase their turnout from 2016's tepid level, so far most 2020 polls have not shown Biden improving on Hillary Clinton's margin among them. Trump, meanwhile, maintains a consistent lead among White voters without college degrees, though almost all surveys show his margins with the women in that group narrowing substantially since 2016.
Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/30/politics/trump-2020-voter-polls/index.html
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