BTRTN 2020 Presidential State-by-State Snapshot: The Utter Brilliance of the Biden Campaign

[reggieandlee]

Born To Run The Numbers provides its up-to-the-minute snapshot of what the 2020 election would look like if it were held today... and as of now, things look very good for Joe Biden:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/07/btrtn-2020-presidential-state-by-state.html

Excerpts: "Since our last report in late May, Joe Biden has materially extended his lead over Donald Trump in swing state polling. The polls doubtless reflect voter sentiment on how Trump has handled the COVID-19 crisis and the protests over racial injustice. Those polls now indicate that Biden is leading in most swing states, and in a statistical tie in the others. Biden’s campaign has been low-key, to say the least, but that has worked to his advantage given the string of embarrassments Trump has both instigated and endured, that go well beyond COVID-19 and Black Lives Matter. According to our BTRTN model, if the elections were held today, Biden would have an 82% chance of winning the presidency, an increase over the 73% our model showed last month...
"Election Day cannot happen fast enough for Joe Biden. The last month has been utterly horrendous for Donald Trump, with yet another sorry chapter in his mismanagement of COVID-19, and the complete misfire of his response to the post-George Floyd dialogue on racial injustice...The data clearly show that the vaunted “re-opening” of the economy has failed. Having followed Trump’s urgent calls for reopening, States that voted for Trump in 2016, generally southern and western states who were aggressive in their re-openings, saw their new cases grow by 83%; the more cautious blue states, more in the Northeast and Midwest in contrast, drove new cases down by -35%...America’s appetite for racial reconciliation and justice is far greater than Trump imagined, thus his hardline handling of the crisis has appealed only to a niche of the GOP. About two-thirds of Americans support the Black Lives Matter movement and that includes 40% of Republicans...

[SharonClark]

1. Utter brilliance?

There is no evidence of “utter brilliance”. It’s more a coming together of circumstances that benefit Biden: trump’s many horrors, COVID, BLM, and Biden’s steady personality.

[tgards79]

3. Of course

That's the point

[tgards79]

5. Would you do anything differently?

And if not, isn't that brilliant, doing exactly the right thing, showing restraint, resisting the primal urge to overreach? Who EVER does this?

[yellowcanine]

2. It is smart, letting Trump beat himself.

When your opponent is floundering, stand back and stay out of the way.

[tgards79]

4. Exactly

Why change the channel?