The Economist: Biden has 91% chance of winning electoral college, 99% chance of winning popular vote

[highplainsdem]

Wow.


Tweet from their forecaster minutes ago, showing a map with Biden winning the EC 412-126:

Link to tweet

The article the tweet links to:


https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

[malaise]

1. BYEDON

You are fired!

[edhopper]

2. Popular vote yes

but did they account for voter suppression and cheating?

[Doreen]

8. That is the first thing I keep trying to get people to understand.

In 2016 it looked very good and at the last few hours we lost. Cheating, suppression, and foriegn influence. I am pretty damn sure they are doing the same now.

[edhopper]

11. On steroids

[Demsrule86]

41. It never looked this good in 2016.

[struggle4progress]

3. (1) Hatch then (2) Count

[sop]

4. Yeah, well, I'm still working hard to GOTV.

[LuvNewcastle]

5. I'm hoping this will be a watershed election,

like 1980 was for the Republicans. Forty years is about the life span of a party's dominance in our government. We've got a lot to do.

[Wounded Bear]

6. Wow, calling OH, GA, and TX to flip is a gutsy call...

I hope it happens.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. Biden would need to win nationally by 8+ points to pull those states

Consistent with current polling but I don't think the margin will be that high

[DrToast]

24. That's one simulation shown. TX still red

OH and GA are tossups.

[OrlandoDem2]

7. Make sure you are encouraging everyone to GOTV!!!

[Blecht]

9. 9% is a big number

If you were told you had a 91% chance of dying if you left the house today, would you do it? I sure wouldn't.

That 9% tells us that we need to GOTV to bring it down to zero.

[csziggy]

38. 9% is a pretty good number in my opinion

I was given a 10% chance of dying for the operation to replace my aortic valve and here I am. Surviving the removal of a kidney a moth later had a 20% chance of survival, partly because of the operation, partly the closeness of the two operations, and long term the chance that the cancer would recur - it's been three years and it is not back.

I'll take 9% as a quite acceptable figure.

[2naSalit]

10. We're tryna turn purple!

At least we aren't solid red anymore and with any luck we could flip blue.

[onetexan]

32. where? the US as a whole or a particular state?

[2naSalit]

35. My state...

Montana.

[onetexan]

36. Ditto here - TX Dems may win the House this year :)

[tinrobot]

12. Good news, but DON'T GET COMPLACENT! VOTE!

Vote as if we're in a close race.

Every vote counts.

[Wounded Bear]

15. Indeed! nt

[Spider Jerusalem]

14. Hillary was going to win, too, nobody better fucking get complacent (n/t)

[JI7]

30. She works have without Comey.

[crickets]

16. K&R for visibility.

[muntrv]

17. GOTV, my friends.

I sent in my absentee ballot for MI August elections.

[BigmanPigman]

18. Putin just fixed his re-election until 2036 so now he can focus on ours.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142528021

He won in a "landslide" by bundling his progressive ideas with his re-election and a $$$ bribe to voters. Attention tRump campaign, he will help you out too (again).

[Kaiserguy]

19. Trump will do the same thing

promises the moon if he wins. But if he wins the only moon the 99% will get is the view of the rich showing us what part of them needs kissed if you want any crumbs.

[BigmanPigman]

22. In other words 2016 redux.

The 1% and the morons will vote for him no matter what...NO MATTER WHAT!

[Pepsidog]

20. I remember seeing the same thing with Hillary.

[StevieM]

27. There is no James Comey this time. And people don't trust William Barr anymore.

It is sad that they ever trusted Barr. Even sadder that Comey was able to put Trump in the White House.

[Pepsidog]

39. When I read that Comey re-opened the investigation it was a gut punch.

[sinkingfeeling]

21. I'd rather have 99% o the electoral college and 91% on popular vote.

[Awsi Dooger]

23. There's one way that can happen

If Texas becomes a dependably Democratic state

[onetexan]

33. With the influx of out-of-state transplanters here i wouldn't doubt it

Hopefully this will be the year. In the least it's getting purple. Williamson County turned purple in 2018.

[Awsi Dooger]

40. Still a long way away

I'm referring to a state that is going to vote blue in a balanced year nationally, not require a huge blue slant of 8+ points to barely get over the bar.

It's going to require the Hispanic second generation types coming of voting age and then registering/participating dependably. Every study I've seen indicates at least 10-15 years from now.

[Hip2bSquare]

25. Repeat - Don't get complacent

"Act like it's the 4th quarter and were down by 5!" Proudly borrowed from Reddit commenter!

[onetexan]

34. +1 K&R - vote since our lives depends on it!

[Calista241]

26. Feels like I've heard this somewhere before.

Can’t place it though.

[StevieM]

28. As I wrote above, there is no James Comey this time.

And William Barr is no longer trusted, which means he can't do the damage to Biden that he had planned on doing.

[StevieM]

29. Throw in an extra electoral vote from Nebraska and this sounds about right. (eom)

[Scurrilous]

31. They were dead on about Biden's support in the primary.

[sakabatou]

37. We still need to get out and vote.

[rockfordfile]

42. long way to go

[smirkymonkey]

43. K&R

Reassuring, but I won't believe it until it's a done deal and Trump is finally kicked to the curb in January.

[Tarheel_Dem]

44. K&R