new Pew poll: 42% reg voters say Trump is "terrible" president, 71% feeling "angry", 87% disatisfie

[Demovictory9]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8479915/Just-12-cent-Americans-proud-country-majority-say-Trump-poor-president.html

https://www.people-press.org/2020/06/30/publics-mood-turns-grim-trump-trails-biden-on-most-personal-traits-major-issues/pp_06-30-20_public-mood-trump-00-0/

[Doodley]

1. Worrying numbers for Joe.

[Happy Hoosier]

2. Sarcasm?

'Cause if not, THAT'S what you take from this poll?

[Doodley]

12. 8% think he'd be a great president, and 22% good. Very worrying.

[Happy Hoosier]

20. As opposed to Trump?

Not sure of your point here.

Trump's numbers are terrible. Joe was not my first choice. And while I expect him to be a decent President, I'll be honest. I don;t expect him to be one of our best. Who cares? The man he's running against is a disaster. And the numbers reflect that.

[Doodley]

27. I expect him to be a great president.

[Skittles]

4. they seem about right to me

I don't think there is great enthusiasm, but people will take average over downright terrible any day

[cwydro]

7. Agree.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. It shows me we need tons more pro-Biden spots

To go along with ready made anti-Trump.

Biden would be more of a certainty if those great/good numbers added to 10% higher.

[Doodley]

13. I agree. Biden needs more exposure. Hopefully these numbers improve.

[Demovictory9]

16. a good (younger than Biden) vp pick will help those numbers

[ElementaryPenguin]

8. You mean worrying for TRUMP!!

Right?

[JI7]

11. actually they are very good. People don't need to love him in order to support him for PResident

In fact it's better if they don't .

[PTWB]

15. This election isn't about joe.

People are voting for, or against, Donald Trump.

[Music Man]

17. Don't worry about it too much.

Biden is a moderating figure who generally doesn't elicit particularly polarizing feelings one way or another. His story is also about being perpetually underestimated.

A plurality may say that a Biden presidency would be average, but a near majority say that Trump is terrible. I'll take that.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

18. hilarious take. worrying for Trump that solid majority hate his guts

[Yavin4]

26. Actually, just the opposite. It's great news for Joe.

Having super high expectations coming into the office is not where you want to be. People will become easily disapponted. Expectations were super high for Obama, and when he didn't give everyone a pony, there was a lot of disappointment.

I rather have Joe come in with low expectations.

[D23MIURG23]

28. Only worrying if you ignore the other numbers.

Its interesting and mildly concerning that more people think Trump is "Good" or "Great" than Biden, but an actual majority think Trump is "Poor" or "Terrible". The numbers tell us that the most likely outlook for a voter to have is that Biden is average, and Trump is terrible. That looks like a favorable result to me.

I would prefer that people viewed Biden more positively, but he's not an exciting candidate. He's well known, old, and relatively moderate. The upside of that, is that Biden isn't easy to portray as an existential threat. Everyone knows him - he was vp for eight years.

That is important, because there is evidence that negative partisanship (i.e. hatred of the other party) is more motivating than positive partisanship.

tl;dr - Trump is much more hated than Biden, and that probably won't change. That is probably more important than Trump's ~35% cult of personality, of which Biden doesn't have an equivalent.

[bdamomma]

3. Let's get this

POS tRump out he's killing Americans.

Biden won't.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

5. "Great" or "good", describing Trump: 37%.

There's that percentage again!

The percentage of complete imbeciles!

[denem]

9. 1932: Hoover got 39.7% of the vote.

[GulfCoast66]

10. Thanks for that. People are tribal. Never changes.

Even if he loses he will get 42% of the vote minimum.

And I expect him to lose.

[Azathoth]

14. 43% think Biden will be poor or terrible, only 28% think he'll be good

These are not strong numbers for us.


Trump's numbers are frightening. Sure, his extreme disapproval is high, but so is his extreme approval. He's not being rejected across the board. Instead, he's polarizing people and the center is splitting down the middle.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

19. you must not understand the math

add great+good+average and poor+terrible for both candidates.

Biden is stomping Trump on favorability overall and the majority who din't feel US is on right track is a bad sign for Trump

[Azathoth]

22. lol, not only do I understand math, I also understand politics

A subject you apparently skipped.

Those numbers indicate that 72% of the country either dislike Biden or are completely indifferent to him. Indifferent voters are not supporters, despite the formula you made up. In most elections, indifference equals low turn out for your side. The only positive aspect of indifference is it means you aren't actively driving people to vote for the other guy.

Those aren't the numbers of a strong candidate in most elections. If they are to be believed, the only reason Biden is on top is because Trump is actively -- and I do mean actively -- driving voters to him.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

23. your thesis is not supported by the actual question

they are asking voters to project what kind of president Biden will be--not their enthusiasm now. with no data, mist will make a fairly safe guess that Biden will be an average president--which is not a bad thing.

[Azathoth]

25. Again, you're being politically naive

Predicting a guy will be "average" is like saying he's just another politician, "same shit, different day".

These aren't historians or political scientists being polled, who use a criteria-defined spectrum of rankings.

When the ordinary voter says your candidate is "average" or "neither good nor bad", it means they're indifferent. Trust me on this if you just can't see it yourself.

Indifferent people are not enthusiastic for your candidate. They can be negatively enthusiastic because they despise the other guy, which is what's happening here, but that means you're winning because your candidate is "not other guy."

If those numbers are correct, very few people are pro-Biden. Far more are pro-Trump. It's just that even more are anti-Trump.

[Happy Hoosier]

21. I think that's crazy....

We win this election if it's a referendum on Trump. If people like Joe, that's great, but not necessary.

I don't think you can look at those numbers and and say the center is splitting down the middle. Let's put it this way. How would you feel if the numbers were reversed?

[Azathoth]

24. Right, but that means everything hinges on Trump

If he pulls out a vaccine two weeks before the election, things could quickly shift back in his favor. There's no significant base of pro-Biden enthusiasm to prevent voters from shifting around based on how they feel toward Trump on a given day.

Hopefully, that will change somewhat as people see Biden more as he campaigns. Otherwise, he might as well change his name to 'Other' and sit home and keep his fingers crossed that Trump will hand him the election.

[D23MIURG23]

29. I agree with that, but I think that is how this likely turns out.

The pandemic won't be gone by November. It just won't be - there is no chance of a vaccine being FDA approved in the next 5 months. The economy won't be on track by November - we are at the beginning of huge explosions of Covid-19 that are going to cause more panic and more economic disruption regardless of what Trump does at this point. This election is going to be about Trump, and about his complete inability to manage the government in a crisis.

Biden represents a "normal" choice. We already know that people in the US aren't very happy with "normal" as it has existed since the 90s, but they are getting a choice between "normal" and "trumpster fire".

The alternative would have been to nominate Bernie, who has a small corps of very dedicated followers, who doesn't represent "normal", and who scares the crap out of a lot of people. IMO this would have been the riskier path because the Republicans absolutely want to make this election about whoever the Democrats nominate, and that would be way easier to do with Bernie. The Democratic electorate ultimately chose Biden, and I think that was the better decision.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

30. we haven't had convention--no veep announcement

there will be plenty for Joe to run on to provide more excitement for base while not alienating crossover votes