Great national polls out today, and a good one from Texas.
Monmouth University (A+ rated by 538) has Biden leading nationally 53-41.
Hart Research (B/C rated by 538--so take that for what you will) has Biden leading 55-41 nationally. What encourages me about this poll is that it is of likely voters instead of just registered voters. Biden has tended to do better with the registered voter polls than the likely voters, so this is good news.
Moreover, there's a question in the Hart poll that may allay some concerns about voters being hoodwinked into thinking any positive short-term economic indicators will help Trump:
"Suppose that by early October the unemployment rate has dropped to 8% or 9% from its current level of 13.7%, but the death toll in the U.S. from the coronavirus has risen from 120,000 to over 200,000.
Under that scenario, do you think President Trump’s efforts to reopen the economy quickly will have been worth it or not worth it?"
Definitely worth it............................. 13
Probably worth it ............................. 22
Probably not worth it........................ 23
Definitely not worth it ....................... 42
Total Worth It... 35
Total Not Worth It... 65
Americans, by and large, understand the dangers of Coronavirus and feel tangible effects to an ill-opened economy. Abstract numbers will also do little to assuage those who have a family member whose lost a job, those who still are facing eviction/foreclosure, those whose unemployment is running out, and those who are working in hazardous environments against their will. Covid-19 is the ultimate litmus test for Donald Trump, because he can't make a deal with the virus. He can't fire it. Unlike a war where you can (theoretically) spin what's happening halfway across the world, people are seeing the effects with their own eyes.
A couple of Texas polls out today. Public Policy has Biden leading 48-46. A UT/Texas Politics poll has Trump leading 48-44. I've never heard of UT/Texas Politics, so I don't know their track record.
Edit to add: TURNOUT, TURNOUT, TURNOUT! These polls simply show that if we do the groundwork for the next four months and turnout when it counts, Biden will win in a landslide. Turnout is the difference between absolutely destroying Trumpism at the polls and a heartbreaking narrow loss for Biden. No complacency.
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The forward-looking question is fascinating.
