CO-03: Tipton Defeat Moves Seat From Solid to Likely Republican
Democrats have quickly labeled Boebert a "QAnon candidate" for her May comments on a live stream show hosted by fringe personality Ann Vandersteel that "if [QAnon] is real, then it could be really great for our country," referring to a conspiracy theory about a deep state out to get Trump. This will no doubt be a fundraising windfall for Mitsch Bush, who had raised $979,000 by early June.
However, it's unclear from Boebert's comments that she truly understood what QAnon is or whether she believes the far-flung conspiracies its adherents espouse. It's also unclear that many 3rd CD voters understand what QAnon is or hold it against her. In fact, the more Democrats and voices in Denver or Boulder mock Boebert, the faster she'll be able to consolidate GOP support in the district.
The bigger obstacle for Democrats may be Mitsch Bush herself. Mitsch Bush, 70, is a retired Colorado Mountain College sociology professor who grew up in Minnesota and lives in the wealthy resort area of Steamboat Springs. With a five-year voting record in the statehouse, she's easy to caricature as a liberal academic. In 2018, she outspent Tipton $1.8 million to $1.6 million and lost by eight points.
There is a precedent for Democrats winning here: in 2004, John Salazar (former Sen. Ken Salazar's brother) captured this seat and held it for three terms before losing to Tipton in the 2010 GOP wave. But Salazar was a Hispanic rancher who ran as a conservative Democrat. Mitsch Bush will emphasize her ranch conservation efforts, but she likely sports the wrong profile to win new converts.
It's possible that as Boebert gets a more thorough media vetting in the months to come, more will emerge that damages her. But as a pro-gun, anti-lockdown provocateur in a blue state, she also has the potential to become a new national GOP star and raise plenty of money herself. This is still a reach for Democrats but moves from Solid Republican to the Likely Republican column.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/colorado-house/tipton-defeat-moves-co-03-solid-likely-republican
