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Fri Jul 3, 2020, 07:46 AM

About that "yuge" jobs number report....

Let's put the employment number rise into context, shall we? We had 4.8 million "new" jobs last month, right? HA! It's refilling previous jobs...not "new".

Look at it one of these ways:

1) You're carrying a bucket of pebbles that's 96% full. The bucket breaks and you can only carry about 2/3 of the pebbles, the other 1/3 spills onto the ground. You place your bucket at its destination and go back to pick up the spilled pebbles.

You can only carry some back so you bring a couple of handfuls. Now you have ~7/8 full of a bucket. You're still missing 1/8 of your pebbles. And the pebbles you did put back in weren't extra. You didn't miraculously find 20% more pebbles. They were part of the original bucket.

2) You're traveling down the Autobahn at about 96mph (4% under the 100mph limit to equate to 4% unemployment before all this crap hit). You see an animal dart into the road so you hit your brake and slow down to about 60-65mph.

You avoided the animal & start accelerating to get back to your previous 96mph but you do so slowly and you make it back up to 88mph (but you're not in a Delorean so you don't travel back to 1955 Hill Valley). You're still glowing slower than you were originally, right?

3) You have $100 in your wallet. You drop it and pick it up and find you only have $70 left. You look around and find two tens. Hey. Found money. Nope was yours to begin with and you’re still short $10

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Arrow 24 replies Author Time Post
Reply About that "yuge" jobs number report.... (Original post)
Roland99 Jul 2020 OP
soothsayer Jul 2020 #1
ProfessorGAC Jul 2020 #10
forgotmylogin Jul 2020 #19
blakstoneranger Jul 2020 #14
CatLady78 Jul 2020 #21
kentuck Jul 2020 #2
brush Jul 2020 #3
C_U_L8R Jul 2020 #4
mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2020 #5
Roland99 Jul 2020 #6
soothsayer Jul 2020 #11
erpowers Jul 2020 #24
Hoyt Jul 2020 #7
DallasNE Jul 2020 #12
uponit7771 Jul 2020 #17
czarjak Jul 2020 #8
DallasNE Jul 2020 #9
uponit7771 Jul 2020 #16
Roland99 Jul 2020 #18
blakstoneranger Jul 2020 #13
uponit7771 Jul 2020 #15
Demovictory9 Jul 2020 #20
struggle4progress Jul 2020 #22
niyad Jul 2020 #23

Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Fri Jul 3, 2020, 07:48 AM

1. Well it's tweeting about them regardless

In all caps

?s=21

NASDAQ HAD ITS 23RD RECORD CLOSE OF THE YEAR. OTHER EXCHANGES ARE FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND. TREMENDOUS POTENTIAL REMAINING. BIG MONTHS UPCOMING. NEXT YEAR, DEPENDING ON AN ELECTION WIN, WILL BE ONE OF THE BEST EVER!

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Response to soothsayer (Reply #1)

Fri Jul 3, 2020, 02:26 PM

10. It's Down 21.32% YTD

Tiny, tiny mind on that one!

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #10)

Sat Jul 4, 2020, 02:05 PM

19. Yeah, climbing a 5 foot ladder after being thrown down a 20 foot well is a yuge accomplishment. n/t

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Response to soothsayer (Reply #1)

Sat Jul 4, 2020, 01:32 AM

14. Notice how he thinks the stock market works for him

 

HE HAS NOTHING WHATSOEVER TO DO WITH THE STOCK MARKET OR THE JOBS MARKET. THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT SOME TRUMP SYCOPHANT SITTING AROUND TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO RESCUE A FAILING PRESIDENT. JUST BECAUSE YOU HAVE SOME PEOPLE TRACK NUMBERS AND THEN GIVE THEM TO YOU, DOESN'T MEAN YOU GET CREDIT FOR THE MARKET.

THE MARKET DOES WHAT IT DOES NO MATTER WHO THE PRESIDENT IS..... ARE WE NOT SUPPOSED TO KNOW THAT?

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Response to soothsayer (Reply #1)

Sun Jul 5, 2020, 02:45 AM

21. I will miss Trump

He makes me feel smart.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Fri Jul 3, 2020, 07:55 AM

2. A very important point.

Trump (and the Republicans) plan on using the job numbers as their salvation in the next election. "Look what a great job he did in getting our economy back on track!"

You are correct. Most of these jobs were not "lost". They were paused to accommodate the conditions of the virus.

Hopefully, we can get back to 4% unemployment. Only then will we have recovered the jobs that we "lost".

Until then, they are just blowing smoke.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Fri Jul 3, 2020, 08:10 AM

3. Yep, and next month's report will show another rise because...

dumb, trump humper governors followed trump's instructions and re-open their economies too early and now have to close many businesses like bars and sit-in restaurants because of unprecedented spikes in covid cases and the resulting job losses from those closings.

You'd think someone who is a governor would be one of the smarter persons in a state but not these fools. They, along with trump, have handled this virus crisis so poorly that Europe is banning travel from America into their countries. We are world pariahs because of how stupidly we blew the shelter-in-place period we all endured by opening too soon. Are we going to have to do that again? Blow up the economy once more because of dumb fuckery?

God, pls rid us of these idiot repugs. The nation can stand much more of their imbecilic decisions.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Fri Jul 3, 2020, 08:12 AM

4. And you never bothered to fix the hole in your bucket.

Now it's getting bigger.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Fri Jul 3, 2020, 08:53 AM

5. So if I went to Vegas with 1000 dollars.

So if I went to Vegas with 1000 dollars. Lost 900 on the first night and then managed to double the leftover 100 to 200 I can tell everyone I won?


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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #5)

Fri Jul 3, 2020, 08:58 AM

6. New math

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Response to Roland99 (Reply #6)

Fri Jul 3, 2020, 03:24 PM

11. Tom Lehrer!

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #5)

Mon Jul 6, 2020, 04:47 PM

24. Coming After Months of the Most Jobs Losses in American History?

Is it the case that these "largest job gains in history" are coming after months of the largest job losses in history? it does not seem to be that awesome if the "largest job gains in history" come after the largest job losses in history.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Fri Jul 3, 2020, 09:52 AM

7. Interestingly, the BLS does not refer to these as "new" jobs. And, the report puts the job

situation in context, discussing changes from February.

There appears to be some improvement over April and May, which is a good thing. However, we are still down, and the virus spreading in 40, or so, states is still worrisome.

Anyone paying attention, knows trump is full of it.



THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JUNE 2020


Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate
declined to 11.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
These
improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity
that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic
and efforts to contain it. In June, employment in leisure and hospitality rose sharply.
Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, education and health services, other
services, manufacturing, and professional and business services.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey
measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics.
The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry.
For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two
surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate declined by 2.2 percentage points to 11.1 percent in June, and
the number of unemployed persons fell by 3.2 million to 17.8 million.
Although
unemployment fell in May and June, the jobless rate and the number of unemployed are up
by 7.6 percentage points and 12.0 million, respectively, since February.
(See table A-1.
For more information about how the household survey and its measures were affected by
the coronavirus pandemic, see the box note at the end of the news release.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates declined in June for adult men
(10.2 percent), adult women (11.2 percent), teenagers (23.2 percent), Whites (10.1
percent), Blacks (15.4 percent), and Hispanics (14.5 percent). The jobless rate for
Asians (13.8 percent) changed little over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of unemployed persons who were on temporary layoff decreased by 4.8 million
in June to 10.6 million, following a decline of 2.7 million in May.
The number of
permanent job losers continued to rise, increasing by 588,000 to 2.9 million in June.
The number of unemployed reentrants to the labor force rose by 711,000 to 2.4 million.
(Reentrants are persons who previously worked but were not in the labor force prior to
beginning their job search.) (See table A-11.)

The number of unemployed persons who were jobless less than 5 weeks declined by 1.0
million to 2.8 million in June. Unemployed persons who were jobless 5 to 14 weeks
numbered 11.5 million, down by 3.3 million over the month, and accounted for 65.2
percent of the unemployed. By contrast, the number of persons jobless 15 to 26 weeks
and the long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) saw over-the-month
increases
(+825,000 to 1.9 million and +227,000 to 1.4 million, respectively). (See
table A-12.)

The labor force participation rate increased by 0.7 percentage point in June to 61.5
percent, but is 1.9 percentage points below its February level. Total employment, as
measured by the household survey, rose by 4.9 million to 142.2 million in June. The
employment-population ratio, at 54.6 percent, rose by 1.8 percentage points over the
month but is 6.5 percentage points lower than in February. (See table A-1.)

In June, the number of persons who usually work full time increased by 2.4 million to
118.9 million, and the number who usually work part time also rose by 2.4 million to
23.2 million. (See table A-9.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons declined by 1.6 million
to 9.1 million in June but is still more than double its February level. These
individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time
because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. This
group includes persons who usually work full time and persons who usually work part
time. (See table A-8.)

The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 8.2 million,
declined by 767,000 in June but remained 3.2 million higher than in February. These
individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for
work during the last 4 weeks or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)

Persons marginally attached to the labor force--a subset of persons not in the labor
force who currently want a job--numbered 2.5 million in June, little different from the
prior month. These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available
for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked
for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Discouraged workers, a subset of the
marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, numbered 681,000
in June, essentially unchanged from the previous month. (See Summary table A.) . . . . . . .


https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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Response to Hoyt (Reply #7)

Fri Jul 3, 2020, 08:43 PM

12. "the number of permanent job losers .. increased by 588,000"

That is the chilling takeaway from this report. The recession is deepening.

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Response to Hoyt (Reply #7)

Sat Jul 4, 2020, 06:22 AM

17. This doesn't explain continuing claims ... STILL ... being 20 million. CC would fall or wouldn't be

... replaced by the same number of new jobs.

That NEVER happens to that exactness

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Fri Jul 3, 2020, 10:14 AM

8. Never mind the 30% that are never coming back?

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Fri Jul 3, 2020, 02:17 PM

9. The Headline Numbers Are Completely MIsleading

Great illustration. The 4.8 million previous jobs brought back is a net number and it is understated. 588,000 old jobs were lost so the previous jobs brought back were actually 5.4 million. Nearly all of those are now at risk of a new layoff with the surging coronavirus outbreak currently going on as places now closing back down.

The other thing is the "mischaracterization" error still exists where people not working are counted as employed because their status is temporary layoff. Because they are not being paid they are supposed to be counted as unemployed. The footnote estimated that if they were correctly counted the unemployment rate for June would be 1% higher, or 12.1%. This error has been ongoing for the last 4 months now and it is hard to understand why it is so hard to fix. Some percent of these previous jobs filled and counted as new jobs this month were previously counted as employed because of the mischaracterization. No, they are not counted twice as being in the work force because there are two different surveys but it does present a rosy picture of the job situation - just as calling these new jobs does. Next month reality will set in again.

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Response to DallasNE (Reply #9)

Sat Jul 4, 2020, 06:20 AM

16. +1, this the 4 month month of the same BLS "mistake" Everything touched by Trump turns to crap

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Response to DallasNE (Reply #9)

Sat Jul 4, 2020, 06:34 AM

18. I'm one of those

Starting week 12 of furlough tomorrow

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sat Jul 4, 2020, 01:30 AM

13. AGAIN, IF THE DATA IS OUT OF THE TRUMP ADMIN---IT'S BULLSHIT!!

 

They are all liars, nuff said.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sat Jul 4, 2020, 06:19 AM

15. K&R, The CONTINUING CLAIMS was still 20 million people !! How can there be 5 million new jobs when

... when the continuing claims was still 20 million.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sat Jul 4, 2020, 02:23 PM

20. Trump and his followers went crazy tweeting over those numbers on Thursday

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Jul 5, 2020, 03:13 AM

22. It's not actually pebbles: it's marbles and loose screws;

and the GOP "experts" leave a little trail behind them wherever they go

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Jul 5, 2020, 02:04 PM

23. So 4million jobs in June? And 47 million have filed for unemployment in last few months? By

My brain. That means 43 million, or 90%, are still unemployed. Not exactly impressive.

Like princess sparkle pony bleating a boy Mickey d's summer hiring of 269k. About half a percent of the 47 million.

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