Trump faces a now historical disadvantage

[JonLP24]

(CNN)Poll of the week: A new Monmouth University poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 53% to 41% lead over President Donald Trump.

The average live interview poll conducted over the last month has Biden ahead by a similar 11-point margin.

What's the point: Usually, this is the point where someone like myself says we have four months to go until the election and polls are a snapshot in time. Both of those statements are true, but they obscure an important fact.

Polls taken around Independence Day in an election year are actually pretty highly correlated with the November results in incumbent contests. That means Trump is in a lot of trouble.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/05/politics/polls-july-analysis/index.html

[BootinUp]

1. So rats will be jumping. Nt

[BamaRefugee]

2. The ones already briefed on Putin's plan will be staying...

[Thekaspervote]

3. Almost all pollsters believe that when a candidate consistently polls above or near 50%

That this is key in winning.

[Glorfindel]

4. Also historical: We've never had four two-term presidents in a row

And three two-term presidents in a row only twice.

[Baked Potato]

5. I want to see him hit 20%. Then, I would feel comfortable.

[Progressive Jones]

7. Unfortunately, there is enough stupidity out there to keep him above 20%. nt

[Buckeyeblue]

6. The problem is that Trump now has a record to defend

And it sucks. In 2016 he had no record, no political record at least. He said, what do you have to lose by voting for me? And many people bought it. Some because of the many subtle nods he gave to white supremacist. The others out of the sheer novelty of his candidacy.

But now it's different. He has demonstrated repeatedly how incompetent he is. He has been forced to give more direct acknowledgement to the white supremacist crowd, which pushes away a number of previous supporters.

[JonLP24]

8. It doesn't make sense politically why he would double down with the white supremacist crowd

He even regrets criminal justice reform.

Scoop: Trump regrets Kushner advice on prison reform

Behind the scenes: One person who spoke with the president interpreted his thinking this way: "No more of Jared's woke s***." Another said Trump has indicated that following Kushner's advice has harmed him politically.

Why it matters: This could be the final straw for federal police reform legislation this year, and it could usher in even more incendiary campaign tactics between now and November.

Details: The sources said the president has resolved to stick to his instincts and jettison any policies that go against them, including ambitious police reform.

https://www.axios.com/trump-kushner-second-thoughts-408d5a33-725d-442a-88e4-d6ab6742c139.html

[Buckeyeblue]

10. I agree. Very little that he does politically make sense

What he doesn't realize about his instincts, is that people know him now. So there is no longer a benefit of the doubt.

What I think is ironic is that Trump could have pivoted to the center, listened to his advisors about covid-19 and put us in a better place than we are now and he would probably be in a decent spot to get reelected. But he has done the opposite.

[Straw Man]

17. Nothing he says or does makes sense politically.

What must be remembered is that he is not driven by political concerns, but by malignant narcissism. Any effort to moderate his behavior in order to placate or attract some segment of the electorate would be tantamount to admitting that his prior utterances and actions were anything short of "perfect," something that he is incapable of doing.

He is doubling down with the core of his base because they are the only ones who uncritically adore him. That adoration is what he craves, and that will be his undoing -- I hope.

[Dukkha]

21. bingo

Just crying "fake news" all the time isn't going to carry water anymore. Many people who staunchly supported him in 2016 are now unemployed.

[cannabis_flower]

26. I didn't vote for him but... .

After he won I thought, how bad could it possibly be. I was even willing to give him the benefit of a doubt because he said he was going to improve healthcare and infrastructure. He even signaled that he might let marijuana be legalized. He did none of that.. But he has been 10 times worse than I even thought.

[JonLP24]

29. I knew he could be like this

When he was in Arizona and he called Mexicans "rapists" and what frightened me was not that he said it but that the crowd cheered. I was scared of a rising far right nationalist movement but I listened to 538 and underrated Trump's chances for the primary.

[Doreen]

9. I feel stupid for asking this question but I guess if it educates you it is not stupid.

Does everybody in Congress, senate, and any very high officials have to reveal who they voted for? I mean if they say they are supporting trump can they get away with putting someone else instead?

[tblue37]

11. No. They don't have to say who they vote for. By law our votes are secret,

unless we want to reveal them

[Doreen]

13. Ahh, so I wonder if any of them might actually vote for someone else?

Talk like they support trump then silently vote for someone else.

[tblue37]

14. It could happen. nt

[Doreen]

15. That would be so sweet.

If he lost then they could admit it.

[MiniMe]

12. But tRumpie says he has a 96% approval rating, he just tweeted it

No supporting backup to that number, but that's what he says.

[ProfessorGAC]

16. The Really Good News Is....

The lead is 2x the missing respondents.
These numbers add to 94. So, assuming it carries forward, it would take all 6% to go PINO, and the entire MOE has to be consumed.
All that said, I still think it's early.
But, come Labor Day, if the numbers are like this, I'll start exhaling.

[bucolic_frolic]

18. Voters for the most part have already decided.

Trump will be extra nasty, crooked, and cheat all he can to try to move those numbers.

Usually there is a large block of undecideds, with candidates both polling in the 40s. Rare, and I don't remember any pollls over the last 40 years where either candidate regularly topped 50% for an extended period.

Aside from Electoral College, over 50% is a winner in a democracy. Majority. Not a plurality.

[stillcool]

19. Hence...the Kanye thing...

all they need is the perception that someone is taking votes from Biden, and they can make it a reality of the mind. Cable TV will be all over it 24/7, with hand-wringing and cries of all that Biden is doing wrong, and how we're all doomed. They've got to put on a convincing show, but apparently for many in this country, that isn't too difficult. What am I saying...no one will fall for that bullshit

[AllyCat]

20. Except this poll does not take into account Putin's ratfuckery.

Polls had HRC ahead too. And yet, here we are.

[Nasruddin]

22. Or just

Preference falsification, or the similar Bradley effect

[cannabis_flower]

27. None of the polls

Had Hillary this far ahead. I don't think she was ever over 50%. I believe it was always something like 48%-43%.

[AllyCat]

28. That is encouraging

I do not trust Trumputin at all. Vote. Work for Biden. Get people registered to vote. Take people to the polls.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

23. we need to stop being insecure. Joe's got this

[MickieDalton]

24. What have Polls got to do with it?

Elections are no longer decided by the people who vote, but by the people who actually run things. These include President of the United States Vladimir Putin (via his puppy, Trump), major corporations, the Koch comrades and a few others of the 1%. Hundreds of thousands of voters are being purged from the rolls, voting booths removed from Democrat-voting areas, the voting machines have been shown again and again to be hacked as easily as opening the fridge door and the hackers are all warming up to their job in the USA and in Moscow. The powers that be need drumpf in the WH for a few more years and they sure as hell are not going to allow him to be voted out of office by actual American citizens.

Trump will somehow be "re-elected" later this year and regardless of how obviously corrupt the "election" will be, this Supreme Court of Whores will endorse him.

[Martin Eden]

25. Trump @41% is encouraging and sickening at the same time

20% is too much support for this treasonous deplorable con man.