Infectious disease prof: AZ, FL, NV, SC, TX, VA show increasing trend of daily deaths

[muriel_volestrangler]

Link to tweet

Six states now showing consistently increasing trend/averages of daily deaths from COVID19: AZ, FL, NV, SC, TX, VA. This is of course ending July 5. Given weekend reporting delays, next few days will be important to watch.

Each state can be examined here: https://interactives.ap.org/covid-case-tracker/

[Johnny2X2X]

1. Americans are optimists

As we watch this disaster unfold, we see nationwide deaths steadily falling and are in denial that the new cases guarantee that the falling trend will be reversed. Sure, there's a ton of hopeful reasons why they could still be filling despite, virus weakened, doctors are better at treating it, population now getting it is more able to fight it off.

But the objective facts tell a different story. There is clear no evidence the virus is weaker now, in fact the opposite has more data to back it up. There is clear evidence the virus is now more contagious. Yes, I think it's safe to assume doctors are better at treating it now, what that means in terms of mortality is not quantifiable yet. Less vulnerable populations getting it now is not a good thing, they're much better vectors to carry the disease into more vulnerable populations than other groups, this is actually the worst case scenario as many of them will never know they have the disease until they've spread it far and wide.

Doesn't mean we can't be hopeful, I am, but the facts are this is extremely likely to get a whole lot worse in the coming months.

[Chemisse]

2. That's not showing up on the overall death rate for USA.

That must be due to the decreasing death rate in the northeast. It makes it look like the disease is not such a big deal if not many people are dying. I've seen a couple of right-wing comments to that effect.

[blitzen]

3. Yes, taking NY out of the equation makes a big difference. n/t

[mucifer]

4. I have heard several prominent physicians interviewed saying they do know how to treat

covid better in the ICUs now than a few months ago. So for a lot of people who survive it, it will become a horrible chronic illness from the injury to their organs. But, less people are dying from it. This is progress DESPITE politics.

I don't see why these doctors would lie.

[genxlib]

6. Surely it is true

Both in new techniques and in drug therapies.

HOWEVER,

It assumes that there are ICU beds available to treat those patients. It is looking increasingly likely that we will overwhelm that capacity. It remains to be seen if the improvements translate to hallways and tent hospitals.

Which of course makes it all that much sadder that we are back where we were three months ago.

[Yonnie3]

5. The data given there for VA is different that the Health Department's graph

https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/

The state's chart shows a trend down when date of death rather than the reporting date is used. There is apparently a delay in reporting.